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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Nerman said:
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The only chance I'm seeing for the Atlanta area is if that wedge being formed with the CAD is being underdone. It's also retreating really fast so that would need to change too. This just isn't trending in our direction and probably not our storm. We just got a good one though so I'm happy for everyone else that hasn't had anything this winter. I hope our neighbors in the Carolinas get pasted!
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The NAM and the GFS is showing some backside snow showers for parts of the metro area Thursday night into Friday morning.
 
Latest from FFC:
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Still don't expect a lot of accumulation from Salisbury North and West all the way into the Triad and foothills. A good 6-8 inches is possible (depending on temp profiles) from Raleigh East. Somebody will get the lollipop and could end up with 10-12" depending on just where the deform band appears. If I had to pinpoint a specific location for that I would say generally the Kinston to Greenville area
 
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blueheronNC said:
Mike Maze WRAL effectively wrote this off as a non-event to open the 6pm news. He’s riding the EURO. Suppressed solution and insufficient cold air source.
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Yep he admitted he puts alot of stock in the Euro ensembles

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blueheronNC said:
Mike Maze WRAL effectively wrote this off as a non-event to open the 6pm news. He’s riding the EURO. Suppressed solution and insufficient cold air source.
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This was Greg Fishel from earlier.

I CONTINUE TO BE UNDERWHELMED BY THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM

Just a quick update, as there is no way I should be up this late. In my estimation, the upper level pattern is wrong, the surface high is in the wrong place, and most if not all of the precipitation will fall while temperatures are above freezing. For snow lovers, I do not believe this upcoming late week weather event is going to be your meteorological messiah. Might we see a few flakes? Yes, but every time I venture outside you've got that so what's the big deal??? More to come later today.
 
The latest thinking for Hampton Roads/Far NE NC from AKQ.
 

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blueheronNC said:
Mike Maze WRAL effectively wrote this off as a non-event to open the 6pm news. He’s riding the EURO. Suppressed solution and insufficient cold air source.
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This is what they are showing. They have to be hugging the Euro, and just totally discounting the NAM and all the other global models falling in step with the NAM and showing a big storm for NC, even with the NAM doing better than the Euro as Webber explained here. FB_IMG_1582067417218.jpg
 
Ollie Williams said:
This was Greg Fishel from earlier

I CONTINUE TO BE UNDERWHELMED BY THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM

Just a quick update, as there is no way I should be up this late. In my estimation, the upper level pattern is wrong, the surface high is in the wrong place, and most if not all of the precipitation will fall while temperatures are above freezing. For snow lovers, I do not believe this upcoming late week weather event is going to be your meteorological messiah. Might we see a few flakes? Yes, but every time I venture outside you've got that so what's the big deal??? More to come later today.
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Honestly and I'm being gracious here, I don't know of a single forecasted snow storm he didn't bust low on. He's partial to the model with the least amount of snowfall. Loved him as a person and how he shared his nerdy wx knowledge on TV, but don't trust him with snow storms. No one remembers when you bust low, they ALWAYS remember when you forecast too much snow and it didn't happen. I always keep this in mind when looking at snowfall predictions from TV mets.
 
I think if we get some consistent NAM runs for tonight and tomorrow morning than we’re looking at those local METS to start changing their tune a bit and at least bringing up the potential for a bigger deal.. especially with how close we’re approaching ... I mean winter storm watches would have to go out what.. tomorrow??
 
MichaelJ said:
Still don't expect a lot of accumulation from Salisbury North and West all the way into the Triad and foothills. A good 6-8 inches is possible (depending on temp profiles) from Raleigh East. Somebody will get the lollipop and could end up with 10-12" depending on just where the deform band appears. If I had to pinpoint a specific location for that I would say generally the Kinston to Greenville area
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I agree! Here in the Foothills looks to be where the very minimum precip will be. I think I would be lucky to get an inch here, but really expecting less than that at this time
 
Jon said:
Honestly and I'm being gracious here, I don't know of a single forecasted snow storm he didn't bust low on. He's partial to the model with the least amount of snowfall. Loved him as a person and how he shared his nerdy wx knowledge on TV, but don't trust him with snow storms. No one remembers when you bust low, they ALWAYS remember when you forecast too much snow and it didn't happen. I always keep this in mind when looking at snowfall predictions from TV mets.
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But can you blame him? Brad P. is the same. He is by far my favorite meteorologist, ever. But ever since, I think it was the January 2018, where he predicted like 6 inches and we ended up with slop. People were literally cussing him out, making threats, just insane behavior. People are picky when it comes to snow in the South. It's not that often we get a system to track and this one has proven to be quite difficult.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think if we get some consistent NAM runs for tonight and tomorrow morning than we’re looking at those local METS to start changing their tune a bit and at least bringing up the potential for a bigger deal.. especially with how close we’re approaching ... I mean winter storm watches would have to go out what.. tomorrow??
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Chris Justice has already put in a FB that he was very conservative right now with his totals. He knows they are gonna go up tomorrow
 
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