Yeh, we will waste 90% of the storm, but I think some back in flurries is certainly likely. And I’ll take it, after dealing with a 36° rain all day Thursday.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
NCCWOP9077
Member
Same here I am cautiously optimistic here in Wilson county.
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Webber what do you think I should do stay here at UNC Charlotte or head back and try my luck back in Raleigh (apex to be exact) ... feel like deformation banding could hit Raleigh the best
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I would absolutely head to Raleigh, no hesitation lol. Even if there’s mixing, the potential of legit, seriously heavy snow is much higher in the Triangle
snowlover91
Member
At this point in the winter I’ve reached the point of desperation that I’d be happy with flurries lol. But I am getting a bit excited, if this verifies like the nam shows it’ll be my first big snow storm that I’ve tracked for my area. 3km is showing some signs of intense banding in the 18z run as that coastal cranks, those bands should really put out some impressive rates.
This is more realistic for N AL than the 12km NAM due to likely temperatures, IMO.
Final total from NAM 3km.
Cadi40
Member
Here in East Charlotte I’m just skeptical of the dreaded warm nose, however I’m hoping it’s being overdone on the models but that’s almost never the case. I’d love to see upwards of 6 inches but with a warm nose I just don’t know how doable that is.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I actually live in Zebulon/Middlesex area so I'm right there with you, dude. Super excited about this one.
Cadi40
Member
Brad P’s first call forecast, very conservative as always with him. Hoping the deformation band will set up along the 85 corridor which is typically where it occurs in recent memory. Webber, any thoughts on where the deformation band may be located?
Van posted his first call map and is going off of the ensembles (SREF. EPS and GEFS)
"Potential Snow Update
First Call on Amounts
Posted 5pm Tue. Feb 18, 2020
Feel free to SHARE
Since last week we have been talking about the possibility of snow near Feb. 20th. As we get closer, we have more and better information to work with. Still, just 48 hours away, the models are not in very good agreement. We have guidance suggesting anything from No Snow in the Piedmont to more than 7 inches. We can't dismiss any of this information at this point. So to come up with a forecast (First Call in this case....I will make 3 including the Final Forecast as we get closer) I look at all models, but put most of my confidence in the Ensemble. The ensemble is multiple runs of the model and this usually gets closer to the actual outcome. The trend I see here is more in eastern NC where moisture should be greater and confidence is higher that it will actual reach those areas. Here in the piedmont, there are solutions that keep the moisture to our south while about 60% show it reaching us. Still, many that show it reaching us, have it very light. Given all of that, I currently have the piedmont seeing near or just under 1". I also have parts of eastern NC seeing more than 3 inches. Stay tuned as new model data arrives, we will hopefully see the models agree more and that will allow us to become more certain in our forecast."
"Potential Snow Update
First Call on Amounts
Posted 5pm Tue. Feb 18, 2020
Feel free to SHARE
Since last week we have been talking about the possibility of snow near Feb. 20th. As we get closer, we have more and better information to work with. Still, just 48 hours away, the models are not in very good agreement. We have guidance suggesting anything from No Snow in the Piedmont to more than 7 inches. We can't dismiss any of this information at this point. So to come up with a forecast (First Call in this case....I will make 3 including the Final Forecast as we get closer) I look at all models, but put most of my confidence in the Ensemble. The ensemble is multiple runs of the model and this usually gets closer to the actual outcome. The trend I see here is more in eastern NC where moisture should be greater and confidence is higher that it will actual reach those areas. Here in the piedmont, there are solutions that keep the moisture to our south while about 60% show it reaching us. Still, many that show it reaching us, have it very light. Given all of that, I currently have the piedmont seeing near or just under 1". I also have parts of eastern NC seeing more than 3 inches. Stay tuned as new model data arrives, we will hopefully see the models agree more and that will allow us to become more certain in our forecast."
packfan98
Moderator
18z GEFS Beefed up as expected. Time to put less value in the ensembles and go to the operationals and short range modeling.
Link?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I generally agree with @snowlover91 that it will be near the US 264 corridor, the Triangle area and points E-NE have the potential to get crushed on the back side of this storm by frontogenetically forced bands in the CCB imho. If we play our cards right in the next 24 hours, this has the potential to be the best setup since Dec 2010 for folks in the north-central coastal plain and far eastern piedmont.
packfan98
Moderator
This seems to be much better than the 12z, correct?
Nerman
Member
The only chance I'm seeing for the Atlanta area is if that wedge being formed with the CAD is being underdone. It's also retreating really fast so that would need to change too. This just isn't trending in our direction and probably not our storm. We just got a good one though so I'm happy for everyone else that hasn't had anything this winter. I hope our neighbors in the Carolinas get pasted!
Cadi40
Member
What are your thoughts on areas east of Charlotte?
BHS1975
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we continue along the path we’re currently on and knowing biases w/ overrunning and WAA, I personally thinking something in the general ballpark of 2-5” is probably what we’re looking at, the low end may be achievable with sleet only in the Charlotte area
yes, matches up with icon IMO