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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
I generally agree with @snowlover91 that it will be near the US 264 corridor, the Triangle area and points E-NE have the potential to get crushed on the back side of this storm by frontogenetically forced bands in the CCB imho. If we play our cards right in the next 24 hours, this has the potential to be the best setup since Dec 2010 for folks in the north-central coastal plain and far eastern piedmont.
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Is it worth it to go back to the previous runs of the euro from last week that all showed the bigger totals to see how they match up now with the Nam? The euro has been locked on a shutout since then but it did show outputs similar to what the nam has in the long range.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
3f798e04e7d16abe501bdae0248590d3.jpg


Don’t know if this has been posted but this is the breakdown when models are split on winter storms in the SE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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And the GFS Is caving to the NAM, that's why this is looking like a pretty big winter storm
 
ryan1234 said:
But can you blame him? Brad P. is the same. He is by far my favorite meteorologist, ever. But ever since, I think it was the January 2018, where he predicted like 6 inches and we ended up with slop. People were literally cussing him out, making threats, just insane behavior. People are picky when it comes to snow in the South. It's not that often we get a system to track and this one has proven to be quite difficult.
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It was January 2017 that Brad missed, but only for Charlotte south and east. He leaned very heavy on the Euro then and it wasn’t showing the warm nose that the NAM was picking up on and was correct about
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think if we get some consistent NAM runs for tonight and tomorrow morning than we’re looking at those local METS to start changing their tune a bit and at least bringing up the potential for a bigger deal.. especially with how close we’re approaching ... I mean winter storm watches would have to go out what.. tomorrow??
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Well technically, winter storm watches don't have to go out at all. I have seen winter storm warnings hoisted without any prior watch or even an advisory. However, watches could be posted as early as tomorrow if there is significant evidence of warning criteria snowfall over a given area. If I were a NWS forecaster, I would want to understand why there is such a difference between the Euro camp and the American models. We know that the higher resolution models should be given more weight at this time-frame, but what is the Euro seeing that is causing it to be so suppressed?
 
Interesting projected sounding here. This is north metro Atlanta for 0z on Friday. Can't really tell if i'm looking at a snow sounding or a drizzle sounding. Looks like drizzle but it appears *just* cold enough to promote small flakes instead of rain (top of that moist area is -4C).
1582068677828.png
 
If the 0z euro or even 12z goes towards the nam there is plenty of time for tv and nws Mets to update their forecasts to reflect the increase. It just doesn't make good sense to throw out crazy totals even 48 hours out if you have a massive disparity in the models
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Well technically, winter storm watches don't have to go out at all. I have seen winter storm warnings hoisted without any prior watch or even an advisory. However, watches could be posted as early as tomorrow if there is significant evidence of warning criteria snowfall over a given area. If I were a NWS forecaster, I would want to understand why there is such a difference between the Euro camp and the American models. We know that the higher resolution models should be given more weight at this time-frame, but what is the Euro seeing that is causing it to be so suppressed?
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tomorrow’s shift make the call after looking through the 12z data. Winter Storm Watches are poss in some MTN counties. Advisories elsewhere thanks to raising the criteria threshold. GSP prob similar.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
18z HRRRX just finished. Looks like a beauty.
I like the look of that deep green returns west of the mountains

View attachment 35364
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If we can get those heavier returns, maybe we can overcome that warm nose and get some decent rates before any mixing would occur. I don't know how likely that is, but this image does make me happy.
 
ryan1234 said:
If we can get those heavier returns, maybe we can overcome that warm nose and get some decent rates before any mixing would occur. I don't know how likely that is, but this image does make me happy.
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one key aspect of that would be how intense the front precip is. The “surprise” event a few days ago had extremely heavy front edge precip that tore through the dry air. That is one reason a lot of areas saw snow when models didn’t show it.
That hrrr image looks to have pretty impressive rates right at the get-go. That could aid in the wet bulb early on.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
tomorrow’s shift make the call after looking through the 12z data. Winter Storm Watches are poss in some MTN counties. Advisories elsewhere thanks to raising the criteria threshold. GSP prob similar.
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Is this a quote from Blacksburg or are you just trolling?
 
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