• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

FallsLake said:
RDU received 2.5" of snow with .47" of QPF. That close to 1:5 ratios (I'm sure it was lower for folks south of there). If it had been 1:10 (normal) ratios we would have seen 5-7" readings across the Triangle. But not complaining. Glad for what I got.
Click to expand...
Sounds like QPF forecasts were pretty in line with what happened, then. At go time, the only one that was obscenely off was yesterday’s 12z RGEM, she spit our a ridiculous 1” QPF for RDU.

I think places like GSO may have gotten a little more liquid equivalent than forecasted.
 
Last edited:
FallsLake said:
RDU received 2.5" of snow with .47" of QPF. That close to 1:5 ratios (I'm sure it was lower for folks south of there). If it had been 1:10 (normal) ratios we would have seen 5-7" readings across the Triangle. But not complaining. Glad for what I got.
Click to expand...

Snow liquid ratios here were abysmal, 0.15" QPF fell as snow yesterday in Fayetteville after the changeover to snow, and we picked up just over 0.5" of snow, yielding about 4:1 SLRs here (hardly better than pure sleet). Even a semi-normal event would have yielded at least 1" here. Ugh
 
Webberweather53 said:
Snow liquid ratios here were abysmal, 0.15" QPF fell as snow yesterday in Fayetteville after the changeover to snow, and we picked up just over 0.5" of snow, yielding about 4:1 SLRs here (hardly better than pure sleet). Even a semi-normal event would have yielded at least 1" here. Ugh
Click to expand...

I went through the spotter training in January and did everything I could to keep an accurate ongoing measurement but it was nearly impossible. The rate of melt and compaction was absurd.

2 oddities of the storm had to be heavy sleet at 46 degrees and the horrible ratios.
 
superjames1992 said:
Sounds like QPF forecasts were pretty in line with what happened, then. At go time, the only one that was obscenely off was yesterday’s 12z RGEM, she spit our a ridiculous 1” QPF for RDU.

I think places like GSO may have gotten a little more liquid equivalent than forecasted.
Click to expand...

Euro/EPS was pretty good at showing right around 0.5" QPF. Hard to beat that combo. 5/1 ratios sounds reasonable.
 
Shaggy said:
I went through the spotter training in January and did everything I could to keep an accurate ongoing measurement but it was nearly impossible. The rate of melt and compaction was absurd.

2 oddities of the storm had to be heavy sleet at 46 degrees and the horrible ratios.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Click to expand...

Ground temps weren't everything but they definitely didn't help, when temps fell below freezing here, about half the snow that fell melted before sunrise (a dusting over several hours).
 
tramadoc said:
Oh cool!! I know that we had more when I went to bed. Look like it compacted pretty good here at my place. I’m really glad you got to see a good snowfall. The plus is the roads are clear after 4”!! When are planning on heading out?
Click to expand...
I'll be heading back tomorrow afternoon... Yeah I'm glad I got a chance to see a snowstorm again it was definitely worth it and blessed
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Click to expand...
Just imagine how bad it would be if this snow fell from like 10 AM - 2 PM. We'd be lucky to have any snow left by nightfall.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Click to expand...

Interesting thing of note for here was it never rained at onset. All the rain was virga and when it finally saturated enough to make it all the way down it was already falling as snow. I kept watching the paver stones out the front window for signs of them getting wet, but nothing. Then I looked and it was flurrying.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Click to expand...

Snow has to be the hardest type of weather to predict for NC. It seems there are just too many factors that affect things like the ratios, rates, warm nose, ground temps, etc. It seems the models have a hard time getting it right here compared to other weather events like severe storms or just plain rain.
 
Had a lot of negative comments and reactions for saying western NC would see the most snow. Well if Beech had 4.5” I’m sure someone higher up closer to TN had over 6”.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Snow has to be the hardest type of weather to predict for NC. It seems there are just too many factors that affect things like the ratios, rates, warm nose, ground temps, etc. It seems the models have a hard time getting it right here compared to other weather events like severe storms or just plain rain.
Click to expand...
Part of it, too, is that rainfall forecasts bust all the time and no one really cares. No one cares if they get 0.5" of rain instead of 1". But that's the difference between 5" and 10" of snow (ignorantly assuming 10:1 ratios, which we often don't get), potentially, which is a bigger deal.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Had a lot of negative comments and reactions for saying western NC would see the most snow. Well if Beech had 4.5” I’m sure someone higher up closer to TN had over 6”.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone is particularly surprised that the higher elevations in the mountains cleaned up. They almost always do in nearly every setup.
 
superjames1992 said:
Part of it, too, is that rainfall forecasts bust all the time and no one really cares. No one cares if they get 0.5" of rain instead of 1". But that's the difference between 5" and 10" of snow (ignorantly assuming 10:1 ratios, which we often don't get), potentially, which is a bigger deal.
Click to expand...
Which one of these is not like the otherssnku_acc.us_ma (1).pngsnku_acc.us_ma.pngsn10_acc.us_ma (2).png
 
Some more pics
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20200221-104958_Gallery.jpg
    Screenshot_20200221-104958_Gallery.jpg
    561 KB · Views: 30
  • Screenshot_20200221-104952_Gallery.jpg
    Screenshot_20200221-104952_Gallery.jpg
    912.6 KB · Views: 31
SD said:
Which one of these is not like the othersView attachment 36125View attachment 36126View attachment 36128
Click to expand...

The 12km NAM struggled a lot with this one, way too amped but the 3km NAM was very good on this. Here’s the forecast from 12z Wednesday, a touch too far north but the overall totals are pretty close when using Kuchera. Highest report I’ve seen is 5.1” so far. Also I added the snow depth map from it. Perhaps a blend of these two would yield a very good result?

4EC668D3-D4B8-4258-B85F-02CF5A7CD619.jpeg
FD623995-0659-44EE-8524-65E8D6A8B277.jpeg
 
Here's my preliminary post-analysis of this evident in NC. There's a lot of spatial inhomogeneities to the snowfall amounts, several localized bands are evident, the most obvious one that sticks out to me is the band of higher amounts that extends from southeast Charlotte towards Montgomery & Moore counties.

February 20-21 2020 NC Snowmap.png
 
metwannabe said:
Snow doing work and taking all the sun's energy, still sitting at 31°
Click to expand...
Yeah, we're definitely not hitting our forecast high here. The coldest night of the winter will be tonight.

Regardless, tons of snow is melting under the severe sun angle.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, we're definitely not hitting our forecast high here. The coldest night of the winter will be tonight.

Regardless, tons of snow is melting under the severe sun angle.
Click to expand...
Coldest night for me yet this winter is 23, well actually in November I dipped into the teens, but that's unheard. Could make a run at it tonight
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's my preliminary post-analysis of this evident in NC. There's a lot of spatial inhomogeneities to the snowfall amounts, several localized bands are evident, the most obvious one that sticks out to me is the band of higher amounts that extends from southeast Charlotte towards Montgomery & Moore counties.

View attachment 36141
Click to expand...

That’s a really fcking accurate map for far NE NC. Good job bro. Good job.
 
Looks like it did end up about half of what the NAM was showing. It's crazy that the short range models get the totals wrong so often when they are the ones that should be the best for short range forecasting. Although, it did get the location correct with regards to which areas would see the most amounts.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like it did end up about half of what the NAM was showing. It's crazy that the short range models get the totals wrong so often when they are the ones that should be the best for short range forecasting. Although, it did get the location correct with regards to which areas would see the most amounts.
Click to expand...

I ran a test a year or so ago about rainfall forecasts via the models. I'm pretty sure the GEFS or something did the best, but I can't remember. That was before the FV3 upgrade if it's so, though.

@Webberweather53 , what caused the Euro to continually keep the surface reflection of that low so weak? I'm wondering if that is a major reason why it refused to get precipitation up to NC for the longest time? I know from memory that a lot of runs just kinda had a barely weak surface low (if one at all) moving on OTS.
 
Please forgive me for one more weenie post. One of the coolest things about today has been this morphing of snow covered trees to the dangling ice formations on the branches. It literally looks like the trees were decorated for Christmas. It's almost like the snow melted slowly since we've been 32 all day and as they melted they formed the ice hanging off the branches. I tried to get a video as best I could. Not sure I've seen this before. Usually the trees melt first with big chunks of snow splatting the ground.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top