You need the precipitation to slow down, I believe.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
You need the precipitation to slow down, I believe.
Jessy89
Member
But the question is why is almost every model showing it to warm and rainy? Something is seriously wrong
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baroowoofr
Member
Apparently meteocentre has the RGEM out to 72 hours. It looks different to me, but can't tell if it looks better or worse, for anyone:
baroowoofr
Member
here are meteocentre's precip panels out to hr 72:
iGrey_X
Member
The moisture isn’t going to be a problem with this. The expansion in Texas, Oklahoma, and even with today’s system is proof that there will likely be more moisture and the NW trend is real. The temperatures are being modeled in upper 30’s and low 40’s and I find that absolutely hard to believe with a 1047 high over us. Even with the last winter system last a few days ago was quite colder than what was being modeled. This is lining up for a winter storm in my opinion.
My guess we would have more of a NAM like outcomeJust as a reference point here are the temps for 3 major models at 12z and the 18z Nam for Thur. at 06z. The Nam is a good bit colder...
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I’m with you man, but at the same time we should see some snowy solutions showing up by now. My guess is the cold air is just too late. We need those dewpoints in VA into the upper teens prior to the event and it’s just not happening. ENC is favored here because there is still precip available to work with (coastal low formation) once the upper atmosphere decides to cooperate
whatalife
Moderator
That would be my guess too. It should be better at nailing down the temps vs. the global models.
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The 3KM NAM generally will handle the thermal structure of the atmosphere better than a global model. With that said, it's not very useful outside 24-36 hours at best, imo. I think the big globals handle everything else, like 500mb especially better.
Overall it still looks solid, down from the 12z a bit tho
Models are starting to show the areas of interest nicely, (mostly the ensembles) Tennessee, northern MS/AL/GA, and CLT-East
Models are starting to show the areas of interest nicely, (mostly the ensembles) Tennessee, northern MS/AL/GA, and CLT-East
Jessy89
Member
So many members continue to give a lot of areas snow. For that reason it’s kinda hard to give up on it
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Cary_Snow95
Member
From my untrained eye the RGEM looks to pull the trough down with the shortwave similar to the cmc
Storm5
Member
The 18z GEFS look better for tenn this run
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whatalife
Moderator
Yeah. I don’t disagree. I certainly don’t think it really matters for our area anyway.
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Late arriving cold starting to make its presence known. This is just one example. It’s snowing up in the ensemble means too. Be very wary of you live in an area that isn’t going to get secondary moisture from a coastal low formation. ENC/NESC look to be sitting in the best spot here. Mostly the Inner coastal plain of ENC
We have a slight chance if the cold would be quicker, but in return it squashes the moisture for those to our North.. but we needed that to kinda happen anyways, to get an I-20 area type deal.
Yeah I’m my opinion I think CLT-East/Southeast looks good in this one
I was burned by the GEFS too many times last year. Its garbage. We're in range to look at ops now. Cold is a few hrs too late. I'm with Jimmy, this just isn't it unless you're on the NC coast.