Six Mile Wx
Member
3k vs 12k Nam 
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
baroowoofr
Member
Starting to wonder if this shortwave in the Pac has more to do with this than the N stream we've been watching:
Euro swings it in underneath and N stream shortwave and squishes it while the NAM:
swings it out more intact.
Not saying the NAM will be right here, just that it is a touchy set up.
Euro swings it in underneath and N stream shortwave and squishes it while the NAM:
swings it out more intact.
Not saying the NAM will be right here, just that it is a touchy set up.
Starting to wonder if this shortwave in the Pac has more to do with this than the N stream we've been watching:
Euro swings it in underneath and N stream shortwave and squishes it while the NAM:
swings it out more intact.
Not saying the NAM will be right here, just that it is a touchy set up.
Maybe, and I'm stretching, the ECMWF has a bias to hold energy in the SW. Maybe that's allowing it to get caught up in the wave while the NAM moves it out.
baroowoofr
Member
Maybe. Overall Euro does better with H5, but on a global scale. We're looking at a couple of waves in particular in an area of the hemisphere where, at least speaking for myself, I never really look to see how it does with this sort of a set up.
I could see it going either way. Maybe the N stream ends up verifying faster and Euro's squish happens. Maybe this wooly booger over the Pac packs a punch and muscles its way across the CONUS.
That second scenario, better for my area/ latitude, is probably not so good for areas further south, since to bring the moisture north, it has to get the flow out of the SW.
snowlover91
Member
18z icon with more of a cmc type enhancement in Eastern NC. First run of the icon showing snow.
pcbjr
Member
Outside of NC, with this, it's going to be tough ...
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whatalife
Moderator
Just as a reference point here are the temps for 3 major models at 12z and the 18z Nam for Thur. at 06z. The Nam is a good bit colder...
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That’s the ensemble sweet spot. It adds up
Cadi40
Member
The one time I need the ridge to flex it’s muscles to move the precipitation back west and it’s no where to be found...
Icon snow map
Cary_Snow95
Member
More wave interaction on the 18z GFS
packfan98
Moderator
Looks to be a slightly better push of colder air.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Starting to fall in line with the CMC/ICON/NAM suite.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Also on this run our driving shortwave is less amplified... our longwave is more extended into the energy under the ridge and overall slightly further west. 3 big setup changes = the setup/pattern is still volatile and big changes at surface could still occur going forward. Nothing set in stone yet!
Dewpoints have improved out front on the GFS this run
GFS will be much further north and colder.
Cary_Snow95
Member
This is a significant trend...
850 line much further south..incoming ENC?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Gfs has taken a significant step towards the cmc