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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Brick Tamland said:
But it is not the almighty Euro. Plus, the Euro is still the most conservative solution, so we have to go with that one and not even present other possibilities and trends from the rest of the models. .
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Correct. We need the Euro on board, soon.
 
Curious how the NAM’s setup is going to play into this? I’m assuming the GFS is underestimating low level FGEN/WAA. That could potentially increase precip early on before the system transfers leading to much higher totals.
 
GFS is so close for my backyard at hour 69 ? . This is during heavy precip too.

2020021800_GFS_069_33.75,-83.88_severe_ml.png
 
NAM is doing much better than usual. Going to review it more when winter is over and weigh it more possibly. I think the euro is gonna come to the party soon with the gfs being late esp on thermals.
 
Those in the upstate don’t worry about what the surface says. The soundings support snow from the beginning and never get above 37-38 degrees which is likely 2-4 degrees too warm at the surface. The column supports snow all the way. That would likely have been a 3-6 incher all across the upstate East towards Charlotte and I95.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
NAM is doing much better than usual. Going to review it more when winter is over and weigh it more possibly. I think the euro is gonna come to the party soon with the gfs being late esp on thermals.
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The 60 hour 3KM NAM was already running 1-2 degrees lower @ 850 than the 12KM, so tomorrow should be a good time as everything comes into range for it.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
GFS is so close for my backyard at hour 69 ? . This is during heavy precip too.

2020021800_GFS_069_33.75,-83.88_severe_ml.png
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I have a feeling metro ATL will see some decent snow at least on the back end. I’ve seen this type set up many a times and it always trends better. We still have three days to get this on our side, plenty of time. I bet by this time tomorrow the NAM will have thrown us a bone.
 
I wonder with all the precip we have had in NC since November which model has done the best with getting the amount of precip here correct with the systems that have been through.
 
NCSNOW said:
Safe to say some folks gonna end up on the plus side of 6 inches with this event. Gotta keep your sounding isothermal throughout while you smell the rain and hit/exceed climo.
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I've thought for a while that the area that can overlap the initial shot of moisture and the late coastal/upper level enhancement had a shot at 6+. I'd really like to see the euro/uk on board now
 
BHS1975 said:
You might end up right under one of those deform bands and just north of the mixing zone. Definitely in a better spot than Dec 2018.


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Yeah if there's a setup that favors cold rain, kylo, and myself its something like this

Edit..errr rain cold
 
SD said:
I've thought for a while that the area that can overlap the initial shot of moisture and the late coastal/upper level enhancement had a shot at 6+. I'd really like to see the euro/uk on board now
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Wasn’t the euro late to the party on the last 2 surprise events when the NAM sniffed them out?


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Those heavy yellow bands coming into SC, you can see what's happening with the slither of snow out of nowhere. That's the heavier precipitation entering cooler air.. the yellow off towards Florence etc, should end up being a good thump of snow, also. I think it's spinning back in off the low being closer to the coast glancing at it... and those areas would still be a jackpot type of zone in the area.

BUT, all the lines have to be worked out later. Still too far out.
 
I know we have a few Virginia posters. 0z GFS was much more widespread than previous runs with 1-3” for all of south-west Virginia. Thinking it’s only going to go up from here.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I have a feeling metro ATL will see some decent snow at least on the back end. I’ve seen this type set up many a times and it always trends better. We still have three days to get this on our side, plenty of time. I bet by this time tomorrow the NAM will have thrown us a bone.
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It's interesting though that the GFS doesn't have a warm nose between 780-850 mb like the NAM does, at least where I live. I'd rather have the NAM on my side in this case so I don't know...

I'm starting to wonder if I get a surprise here...that sounding I posted is definitely mixed precip.
 
BHS1975 said:
Wasn’t the euro late to the party on the last 2 surprise events when the NAM sniffed them out?


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Well, the thing is the Euro was showing a big storm last week. Then it went away. So it's not like it has not shown the same possibility as the NAM is showing now. Not sure why the Euro is not doing it now, but short range models should be better in the short range anyway in getting the details right. If not, then what is the point of having them around?
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's interesting though that the GFS doesn't have a warm nose between 780-850 mb like the NAM does, at least where I live. I'd rather have the NAM on my side in this case so I don't know...

I'm starting to wonder if I get a surprise here...that sounding I posted is definitely mixed precip.
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Yea, NAM will find the warm nose way quicker than the GFS
 
SD said:
I've thought for a while that the area that can overlap the initial shot of moisture and the late coastal/upper level enhancement had a shot at 6+. I'd really like to see the euro/uk on board now
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When is uk up
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, the thing is the Euro was showing a big storm last week. Then it went away. So it's not like it has not shown the same possibility as the NAM is showing now. Not sure why the Euro is not doing it now, but short range models should be better in the short range anyway in getting the details right. If not, then what is the point of having them around?
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I think the euro will cave tonight.


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Snowflowxxl said:
I have a feeling metro ATL will see some decent snow at least on the back end. I’ve seen this type set up many a times and it always trends better. We still have three days to get this on our side, plenty of time. I bet by this time tomorrow the NAM will have thrown us a bone.
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I’ve been sitting here wtg, w saddle in hand, to ride the NAM and a potentially beautiful, undermodeled wedge to victory!
 
I know that everyone wants their backyard to score, (as do I) but I really am rooting for EVERYONE on his board to score something. Most of us have experienced an overall, crappy 6 years of "winter". If the MA can score 4+ years in a row... we should be able to have ours. Mods... feel free to move this, if need be. But I am rooting for all of us. For the sake of our sanity, we deserve this win!
 
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