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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
Raleigh is going to get absolutely nuked on the back end if that verified. That's absurd frontogenesis in the DGZ.
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I leave RDU ~620am Friday, straight shot to SEA on Delta, willing a punch to Paradise WA same day on my drive south to PDX. I'll take the RDU ground stop history and criteria to OT as I value local experience, I hate flying so my info dump is limited and needing input.

@Shaggy , doubting a classic NNE "band" and fetch off the Albemarle, this will likely be elongated west-east before consolidating to a more classic band to our SE. I don't see any indication of a true cold core conveyor deform band, just areas of "enhanced" banding which are still too early to resolve.
 
(Science) I feel like the initial overrunning snow thump is gonna be easier to predict for the model guidance. And could lay down moderate accumulations (3”+) across a good chunk of NC. For those down east, I feel like we won’t know until 12 hours out for any secondary punch as to where the cutoff will be of very heavy wet snow. I hope this does not screw over areas likes Raleigh where they need snow more than I do.
 
WxBlue said:
It's far more accurate if you use positive snow depth change to filter out the sleet/mix. Even the developer of Tropical Tidbits, Levi Cowan, said so himself if you follow him on Twitter. I found this method the most accurate when I was living in New England last few winters.

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I told my neighbor Packfan earlier today we'd see some bullseye lollipops up this way and this map has it right over our back yards. Sitting in a perfect spot for upglide from the overruning and coastal that takes shape. Nam is good at sniffing out. Sees topography better.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree. And to the GA posters I wouldn’t sleep on this. We might get some wedge help. Won’t be as snowy as NC.
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Delta, just sent you a question re NAM. I was looking at the 850s per NAM and ver batim to my novice eye they were around 5/6c. A
LovingGulfLows said:
Well at least you know if it is cold enough for all snow, it's probably going to be heavy with very moist southwesterly air flooding into the mid levels.
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LGL,
Cautiously watching for NAM to potentially bring the cold for our areas. Last map I saw was showing a solid inch or 2 for our neck of woods. Noticed a few ensembles giving us some love earlier today as well. Delta’s also seeing potential colder signature. What’s your take on NAM?? Is it teasing us w cold bias? Several recent global runs certainly weren’t fans.
 
Chris justice said for the upstate to see a good snow. The moisture needs to move in before 1pm on Thursday. If it moves in later then 1pm then chances of accumulation would be unlikely


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GaSnowhound said:
Delta, just sent you a question re NAM. I was looking at the 850s per NAM and ver batim to my novice eye they were around 5/6c. A

LGL,
Cautiously watching for NAM to potentially bring the cold for our areas. Last map I saw was showing a solid inch or 2 for our neck of woods. Noticed a few ensembles giving us some love earlier today as well. Delta’s also seeing potential colder signature. What’s your take on NAM?? Is it teasing us w cold bias? Several recent global runs certainly weren’t fans.
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GA is going to be to warm at 850 for most of the main slug of moisture IMO.
 
The WPC is just now starting to raise the odds of snow for western NC that the NWS will follow in their next forecast (GSP&Blacksburg). No chances down East just yet but it will come for them too.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree. And to the GA posters I wouldn’t sleep on this. We might get some wedge help. Won’t be as snowy as NC.
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Hey Chris I see this easily going more wintry for north Georgia( Rome to canton to Gainesville line ) if not all snow to a winter mix then switching to snow. What do you think? Very small tweaks and we are game on.
 
Fisherman said:
Hey Chris I see this easily going more wintry for north Georgia( Rome to canton to Gainesville line ) if not all snow to a winter mix then switching to snow. What do you think? Very small tweaks and we are game on.
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Going to be tough at the beginning. Need some cooler 850’s initially. Let’s see the trends.
 
Ollie Williams said:
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Well, I like this one... May I cash out please?
 
Gfs so far looks better at H5, not as elongated and not as strung out over the central US, (energy looks better over MN/Iowa) this run will probably be improved 7F98168C-9C0B-4633-B2DB-85F2F44B8CA6.gif
 
BHS1975 said:
The NAM will definitely be tested with this one. It’s as goofy as it used to be.


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I agree. I doubt the globals change much overnight or much at all. It's going to be short range versus globals. I'm curious who wins. My early money is on the globals though at this point, until we get within 24 hours.
 
This storm even though not the same setup as last one, could end up basically the same as for as accumulations go for the upstate.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Geez is the NAM gonna catch another W ? sure it’s first few long range runs weren’t impressive but geez things are trending towards it
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I wonder with the improvements made to it if it is a case of the global models picking up on the basic threat for a storm, and then the NAM comes in for the short range and figures out the finer details.
 
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