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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

WxBlue said:
It's far more accurate if you use positive snow depth change to filter out the sleet/mix. Even the developer of Tropical Tidbits, Levi Cowan, said so himself if you follow him on Twitter. I found this method the most accurate when I was living in New England last few winters.

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Looks about right Greensboro usually does well. Lock it in.
 
WxBlue said:
It's far more accurate if you use positive snow depth change to filter out the sleet/mix. Even the developer of Tropical Tidbits, Levi Cowan, said so himself if you follow him on Twitter. I found this method the most accurate when I was living in New England last few winters.

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To be fair, those maps might actually suck more than the 10:1 ones. They often underdo amounts.
 
This thing is coming in colder by the run. If I’m in the upstate and I40 corridor east and this sucker comes in just 2 hours later than modeled .... this could bust VERY high and the snow accumulation is already inching higher on every model for us currently.
 
iGrey_X said:
Kuchera is suppose to be pure snowfall with mixing taken out. However, it tends to be much on the lighter side so a blend of 10:1 and kuchera in the middle is a good basis for what you see on a given map. For example, mby saw 7” that run on the 10:1 and 5” on the Kuchera so around 6” looks more reasonable.
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Thank you. How you feeling accumulation wise for upstate. I’m leaning towards 1-3 playing it safe north of 85. I don’t know when that transfer to the coast will happen.


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Looked at soundings around CLT for fun during the middle of the storm, kinda got a look to my face, SW winds at 700mb with a warm nose, that’s close 0B4C5D75-3D21-4D6A-BC6C-1578519B0F2D.png0D224A70-3991-45E5-9F08-8EA1109EC738.png
 
malak05 said:
The 00z nam run is still solid overall bringing in more snow over GA down to i20 at end of run need a little more but that trended better for my area but some far north and west got a little less
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This is what I’ve been watching as well. It will be interesting to see how this trends. Would love to sneak one out.
 
iGrey_X said:
Kuchera is suppose to be pure snowfall with mixing taken out. However, it tends to be much on the lighter side so a blend of 10:1 and kuchera in the middle is a good basis for what you see on a given map. For example, mby saw 7” that run on the 10:1 and 5” on the Kuchera so around 6” looks more reasonable.
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The 10:1 is also pure snowfall, it's the ratio that Kuchera is different. It's not 10:1, it changes all the time.
 
WeatherNC said:
NAM sounding for PGV at start, 1PM Thursday. Very quick transition if any and solidly in the all Snow type thereafter per nomogram, we have 2-3C aloft margin on any nose.

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4PM
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yeah no worries going to be at worse rain/snow mix to quickly all snow I imagine....925 0C line is pinned to the coast and then offshore for duration no really seeing any reason to worry about the warm nose this time around.....
 
Looks like I may end up wrong on this storm but who knows. This is not me being weenie but if your sitting further north-west in areas not being talked about (Winston-Salem, Boone, Greensboro) you gotta like that this thing has 3+ days to keep ticking north/west and perhaps shift the max the day before directly over Winston/Mount Airy zones.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looked at soundings around CLT for fun during the middle of the storm, kinda got a look to my face, SW winds at 700mb with a warm nose, that’s close
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Well at least you know if it is cold enough for all snow, it's probably going to be heavy with very moist southwesterly air flooding into the mid levels.
 
Spurs up said:
talk to me shawn. what you thinking?
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30% chance right now of seeing some flakes. i want to see the 3km over these 32/12km nam and more ensemble data. It's hard around here. where does the front actually stall? where do it rise to? nobody has a clue. This time of the year, we want a weak low tracking across north central florida. this one is tricky for the midlands.
 
Jessy89 said:
Thank you. How you feeling accumulation wise for upstate. I’m leaning towards 1-3 playing it safe north of 85. I don’t know when that transfer to the coast will happen.


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I’m going to hold off on accumulations until tomorrow after the 12z runs and give a first call map. I’m going to try and have a winter weather and snowfall probability for The southeast and upstate in particular in a few minutes.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Somewhere in there, frontogenesis like that favors thumping, hard to say exactly where but that supports heavier rates somewhere
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It's of interest to me because that's exactly where I am. Barbs to my close south coming up from the south barbs barely north coming from the north. Looks like that runs right down highway 264 from Raleigh to greenville. I know that will shift north or south as we get closer but it's basically right over me on this run.
 
Brick Tamland said:
WRAL still only showing the Euro on Facebook. I asked met Mike Maze about the NAM, and his reply was...

I don't trust the NAM...it's an outlier...I am not going to advertise something that is way far and above what everything else is showing.
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His forecast video on their website is very cautious, snow possibility is mentioned and as you stated leans heavily on the EURO. He does warn to stay tuned as it could change.
 
Icon is north again, looks rainy but i hope that is model error
 
For chasing, I’m actually expecting to see more changes and I’m looking at the Asheboro to Greensboro corridor. I think the front tongue will hit sooner and harder plus combined with a little luck someone is gonna see 6-12” where some overlapping occurs with the secondary thump.
 
deltadog03 said:
Nam was very close to producing wintry weather down here as well. 36-38 ish and cold 925mb. Nice trends if your in GA. Wedge might help us out.
Delta, do you blv the NAM is onto anything re I-20 (S metro) and areas to immediate south?? I’m in Social Circle and we can sometimes do well w strong CAD. I’ve been cautiously wondering if NAM would bring the cold once we get into its wheelhouse but remain circumspect following recent globals. I’d seen some ensemble support for Ga down thru roughly I-20 but those members were certainly not the majority. Does NAM still verify w cold bias or has that been corrected recently? Thanks and I’m pulling for you central ga folks too!! We’re due man!!!
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whatitdo said:
What would you say to Mike Maze's comment about the NAM?
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Personally, I think they just always go with whatever shows the least, and up the totals if they need to while the storm is unfolding. That way they can say they were right no matter what. If it was the reverse and the Euro showed the most, he would probably say it was an outlier. But I think it does a disservice to the public to just present one model solution and not the other possibilities.
 
ICON looks a little slower than the NAM, but all in all, the two are pretty close. Would be nice to get the GFS and EC on board. As an aside, this is the first time this season I will stay up for the majority of the 0Z suite--hard to imagine it's taken this long. Good luck to everyone.

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