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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Cary_Snow95 said:
I’m just utterly confused. A 1045 high is sitting over the Midwest in an arctic air mass and we can’t break 35 degrees. What’s missing here
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I think the models are probably blowing it over nc...soundings certainly show a pretty cold profile where decent precip probably overcomes the shallow warm surface layer. Wetbulb zero heights are at or below 950mb in nc by 12z to 15z...even if surface is 40 it would changeover.
 
FallsLake said:
Right this second folks in NE SC through the central coastal plain of NC should be excited. I think folks west and north of there still have a chance.
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Maybe we get a PGV special to actually work this time. With the high position and strength I am having doubts about the warmer solutions but that could be the weenie in me.
 
Jon said:
Oh wow! Yep. Way more amped up. I love seeing the wave losing the flat/progressive nature on multiple models, so the Nam is no longer an outlier. A slight adjustment and a much bigger area of snowfall would be expected....got to love the trends today. 12z Euro is huge to see if the king sticks to his guns.


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If past experience is any indicator, if we see the models start trending towards an amped up coastal low, that sucker is going to come NW with time.
 
Makeitsnow said:
I think the models are probably blowing it over nc...soundings certainly show a pretty cold profile where decent precip probably overcomes the shallow warm surface layer. Wetbulb zero heights are at or below 950mb in nc by 12z to 15z...even if surface is 40 it would changeover.
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I think Raleigh eastward is golden right now. But it will probably come further NW as usual.
 
We will look back on this and see that the Canadian handled this event the best. It would not be the first time it has outperformed its two more famous counterparts.


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CMC is interesting for N. GA in that it seems to bring a bit more moisture over the area as an upper level shortwave associated with the swinging trough moves over. You can sort of see the same thing on the GFS at hour 114, though the energy isn't as strong. Perhaps, it's something to keep an eye on as we move closer to the event.
 
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snowlover91 said:
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a weak low pop off the coast and enhance things for Eastern NC. A good number of GEFS members and some EPS members are hinting at this and I expect when we get in NAM range it will resolve any features like that far better than the globals.
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And just like this the CMC today popped a nice low off the coast with a big snow for Eastern NC. That's something to really keep an eye on for eastern areas.
 
Looks like the Euro/EPS have screwed the pooch on this one & have been behind the curve from the onset. Everyone that was worried about having this model on board before seriously believing this threat have egg on their face. It was honestly kind of strange to see the EPS and Euro more progressive with the northern stream than the GFS a few days ago, it’s almost always the other way around, this fact certainly left me scratching my head. Moral of the story here: no matter how good a model and its ensemble suite are, they are never infallible & it’s rarely a good idea to put all or even a majority of your eggs into one basket.

This looks like a very legit threat for the I 40 corridor (TN, NC, upstate SC, and VA), Warm advection, isentropic upglide, & frontogenesis will be the primary forcing agents for ascent here, most of the time global models will low ball the magnitude of one, two, or all of the above due to their coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, leading to more widespread and intense precip verifying
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks like the Euro/EPS have screwed the pooch on this one & have been behind the curve from the onset. Everyone that was worried about having this model on board before seriously believing this threat have egg on their face. It was honestly kind of strange to see the EPS and Euro more progressive with the northern stream than the GFS a few days ago, it’s almost always the other way around, this fact certainly left me scratching my head. Moral of the story here: no matter how good a model and its ensemble suite are, they are never infallible & it’s rarely a good idea to put all or even a majority of your eggs into one basket.

This looks like a very legit threat for the I 40 corridor (TN, NC, upstate SC, and VA), Warm advection, isentropic upglide, & frontogenesis will be the primary forcing agents for ascent here, most of the time global models will low ball the magnitude of one, two, or all of the above due to their coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, leading to more widespread and intense precip verifying
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Yeah it's very odd to see the Euro and EPS catch on so late and suddenly, the GEFS and GFS has led the way surprisingly. I know just yesterday not a single EPS member had anything for NC and then all of a sudden it flipped and now there are 25-30 with snows in NC. NAM is going to be big once it gets in range, especially if we can get a weak coastal to pop like the CMC and some ensemble members are hinting at happening.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah it's very odd to see the Euro and EPS catch on so late and suddenly, the GEFS and GFS has led the way surprisingly. I know just yesterday not a single EPS member had anything for NC and then all of a sudden it flipped and now there are 25-30 with snows in NC. NAM is going to be big once it gets in range, especially if we can get a weak coastal to pop like the CMC and some ensemble members are hinting at happening.
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To be fair, very early on, the Euro had this while the GFS was showing a lakes cutter through Texarkana. Euro was closest early on but stuck to the suppressed idea for days on end without budging. Which was not helpful if you were trying to make a medium range forecast based on the Euro alone.C4E04101-4EEA-4D9C-A021-51526A13B39A.jpeg
 
I think there may be some confusion here. I called this failure for this area, well, because it's looking to be. Moisture was never really an issue for us, in my opinion down here. Just worried about warmer temperatures. We shall see., but the Euro did have a big storm, along with the GFS down in the deeper South which I based those thoughts on. It's pretty much kaput for us, at this point.

A line from about Newberry, and North into Upstate, upper 3rd of SC, NC, NE GA (even) still looks okay to me. Now you guys may have to fight temps in areas, I'm not sure right now.
 
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