Stormlover
Member
It's interesting to follow the trends...is it going up, or going down...are more members showing it, etc
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Here it comes
Look at H5 looks better for a transfer
Jon
Member
Energy might be weaker but it's definitely digging a bit more here and slightly more tilted...might be a wash as there's still plenty of energy from the overrunning wave. This will still be a big run for NC.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks even better for N GA. There's a better tilt that'll affect those in SC too. Low developing at 69 slightly stronger and SW of 18Z.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Probably a different setup, maybe less cold or moisture, but I swear that look is what the radar looked like leading up to the Christmas 2010 storm and the 2000 Carolina Crusher.
Jessy89
Member
Nam doesn’t transfer the moisture to the coast very fast. That’s why upstate and north Georgia might be ok
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Storm5
Member
Another good run for extreme northern miss ala and Ga
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Thursday afternoon sounding for the Triad from the NAM--that's a pure snow sounding there.
As the coastal starts getting going you can really see that subsidence in north GA/far western NC/SC
Cary_Snow95
Member
As Jon stated and I had stated at the start of the run, although it’s digging less it has more interaction with the polar jet and quicker. Allows for a better tilt later on
Thursday afternoon sounding for the Triad from the NAM--that's a pure snow sounding there.
Impressive lift in the DGZ
Better run for areas around Charlotte
JLL1973
Member
Looks to be all rain for us here in north ms. Temps are going to be close
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Is the NAM going for a defomation band?
I like the change in H5 to a more negative configuration
Looks like we waste a lot of qpf on sleet. No bueno.
Jon
Member
Have to remember the 18z NAM precip was ongoing. This is going to be one hell of a weenie map as we're closer to the end of the system. Wouldn't be surprised to see a jackpot in the 12-14"+ range.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's some nice wraparound moisture. Keeps the snow going for quite awhile. If we keep seeing this trend, I bet there'll be even higher amounts and snow even further south.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Sorry if this isn’t a good question, but does anyone have or know how to find the sounding for Dahlonega?
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Jessy89
Member
I don’t know how nam keeps snow in upstate sc till 06z Friday if there’s a transfer? That seems unlikely
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Honestly my main concern if that trend continues is it over amping on the coast
whatalife
Moderator
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Final Kuchera for those who prefer model simulated snow output.
Kuchera
Snowflowxxl
Member
Three days to trend even colder in better. Big winter storm ahead for many in the SE!
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Wow nc boardwide hit
Jessy89
Member
What is the difference between snow 10:1 and kuchero?
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P-type
Tropical tidbit maps are so misleading at times lol
Different ratios. 10:1 always stays the same with 1inch of liquid equalling 10 inches of snow. Kuchera is dynamic and the ratios adjust more so based on surface and UL temps.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
It's far more accurate if you use positive snow depth change to filter out the sleet/mix. Even the developer of Tropical Tidbits, Levi Cowan, said so himself if you follow him on Twitter. I found this method the most accurate when I was living in New England last few winters.
NAM sounding for PGV at start, 1PM Thursday. Very quick transition if any and solidly in the all Snow type thereafter per nomogram, we have 2-3C aloft margin on any nose.
4PM
4PM
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
WRAL still only showing the Euro on Facebook. I asked met Mike Maze about the NAM, and his reply was...
I don't trust the NAM...it's an outlier...I am not going to advertise something that is way far and above what everything else is showing.
I don't trust the NAM...it's an outlier...I am not going to advertise something that is way far and above what everything else is showing.
iGrey_X
Member
Kuchera is suppose to be pure snowfall with mixing taken out. However, it tends to be much on the lighter side so a blend of 10:1 and kuchera in the middle is a good basis for what you see on a given map. For example, mby saw 7” that run on the 10:1 and 5” on the Kuchera so around 6” looks more reasonable.
talk to me shawn. what you thinking?