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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

ForsythSnow said:
I can get behind what the CMC is selling this run.
GDPSUS_prec_snow_135.png
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Lines up with GEFS/EPS..incoming ENC
 
If we're going to get a big storm like the CMC, we need the energy to almost cutoff and tilt neutral. Hopefully, we get a NW trend.
This is what happened on that big Euro run. We can still have that happen but it will be further west.
gem_z500_vort_us_21.png
 
If the cold isn’t coming in until Thursday evening then we need the moisture to last thru Friday. We need more overrunning and not pushed out to sea in a hurry on Thursday. Or a tilt like posted above would work.
 
These ensemble means showing the bulk of snow potential into the easternmost portion of NC makes you think maybe the low popping late just off the coast is likely the key winter weather feature here and not the weak overrunning prior. Just some thoughts. And maybe some pretty obvious ones
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
These ensemble means showing the bulk of snow potential into the easternmost portion of NC makes you think maybe the low popping late just off the coast is likely the key winter weather feature here and not the weak overrunning prior. Just some thoughts. And maybe some pretty obvious ones
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That's what I immediately assumed when I noticed the snow centralized in that particular area.... A low popping off the coast.
 
Ollie Williams said:
If we're going to get a big storm like the CMC, we need the energy to almost cutoff and tilt neutral. Hopefully, we get a NW trend.
This is what happened on that big Euro run. We can still have that happen but it will be further west.
gem_z500_vort_us_21.png
Click to expand...

Oh wow! Yep. Way more amped up. I love seeing the wave losing the flat/progressive nature on multiple models, so the Nam is no longer an outlier. A slight adjustment and a much bigger area of snowfall would be expected....got to love the trends today. 12z Euro is huge to see if the king sticks to his guns.


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For those that keep asking about the upstate, timing is everything here. Which is usually the case
 
Jon said:
The CMC is slower, around 6hrs slower than the gfs. Storm is more west at 6z...Matters a lot!


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Exactly...lines up with the Nam at 84hrs as well..gotta thread the needle and really need a slower solution like cmc to have a shot here.
 
It’s clear what we’re seeing here .. definitely an NC TN maybe upstate SC type of event where the moisture will be able to override the cold 850s that are slowly pushing down (this is also why there is all that rain further south because even tho there’s a big ole strong high pressure the orientation of the front that is bringing the cold air in is oriented west to East and moving south slowly) (if the high was in Pennsylvania or New England than we would all be plenty cold enough with plenty cold air filtering in)

I also think we really need to keep the “is this trending for snow for *some location*” out of this thread it’s clutter
 
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