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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

EmersonGA said:
NAM for me shows 34 during most of the precip with a .9 850 temp. So close. It does spit out .4" of snow so maybe it has it waffling back and forth.
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It’s so close for north Georgia. I still think we’re in the game. I’ve learned from the last storm do not write storms off until the last minute. I wonder what temperature will be for canton, Georgia on the nam. Wow it’s gonna be close to glory!?
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's gotta go further south for me to like it. The slight warm nose is what we need to see go away the next few runs. I think by looking at the 3K NAM that it will for CAD regions.
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The slow arrival of the 850's into MS, AL, GA has me concerned and confused. It's pushing down into the Carolina's first on every model. Unfortunately, it looks like the moisture will be moving out as the cold push arrives in these areas. I guess a more northward expansion of the precipitation could help keep it around after 2/20 0Z when we need it.

850th.conus.png
 
tramadoc said:
Then we should be using short term models instead of global, correct? NAM and WRF?
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Not WRF but 3km when in range and 12km NAM will be the better models as we head into tomorrow and get in the time where they become more reliable and useful. I like 3km NAM inside 48 hours and 12km inside 60 hours. For now they are helpful in 5h trends of the energy out west.
 
snowlover91 said:
Not WRF but 3km when in range and 12km NAM will be the better models as we head into tomorrow and get in the time where they become more reliable and useful. I like 3km NAM inside 48 hours and 12km inside 60 hours. For now they are helpful in 5h trends of the energy out west.
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Thanks. You’re in the carolinawx forums as well, right?
 
FFC mildly interested....
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Still some uncertainty about the chances for some wintry mix of
precipitation on the trailing edge of the precipitation late
Thursday. ECMWF continues to end precipitation by Thursday afternoon
before the better cold air catches up. GFS squeezes out light
precipitation at least into the overnight hours across the far north
with a potential for some mixing or changing-over before the
precipitation ends early Friday. Both are showing very dry air
moving in by the end of the daytime period. Model blend lingers some
precipitation into at least the early evening. With the much drier
airmass moving in, any precipitation that manages to linger would
most likely be very light and right now little or no accumulations
would be expected outside of the higher ridges/peaks of the north
Georgia mountains. Will need to keep an eye on trends over the next
couple of model cycles.

20

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
Storm5 said:
Huntsville is sitting pretty . Will be interesting to see the trends over the coming two days


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I don’t know. I’m pretty worried this thing ends up being a mostly rain event here in Chattanooga if the warm nose ends up getting us. The cold use to look good but it’s getting a bit too close for comfort here.
 
Shawn said:
If this continues, and cooler temperatures do prevail, the area of Florence could see something historic.
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That's where I'm at. What are you seeing because I'm lost when it comes to winter weather and the local meteorologists are downplaying everything right now.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
FFC mildly interested....
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Still some uncertainty about the chances for some wintry mix of
precipitation on the trailing edge of the precipitation late
Thursday. ECMWF continues to end precipitation by Thursday afternoon
before the better cold air catches up. GFS squeezes out light
precipitation at least into the overnight hours across the far north
with a potential for some mixing or changing-over before the
precipitation ends early Friday. Both are showing very dry air
moving in by the end of the daytime period. Model blend lingers some
precipitation into at least the early evening. With the much drier
airmass moving in, any precipitation that manages to linger would
most likely be very light and right now little or no accumulations
would be expected outside of the higher ridges/peaks of the north
Georgia mountains. Will need to keep an eye on trends over the next
couple of model cycles.

20

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
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After what happened last time, they're definitely not taking chances. Probably the safest route right now.
 
Nerman said:
This shot right here should have South Carolina folks really excited...

View attachment 35057

And NC looks like it's going to get nailed!
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If I'm not mistaken, that low pressure center is just where Rain Cold likes it. Every time the southern piedmont gets an event where the low hugs the coast, he folds. LOL. Happy for you Raleigh folks. Hopefully you can get an event and not have mixing issues for a change.
 
3km NAM and 12km, along with globals, should be main tools for tomorrow. Ensembles should be near unanimous by then... just have to break it to finer details after that point. Wednesday, it'll be good time to start using RGEM... that's a solid short-range model. By Thursday, we should start ditching globals and shift nearly fully to short-range like RAP and HRRR... as well as mesoscale models like NAM and RGEM.
 
Chattownsnow said:
I don’t know. I’m pretty worried this thing ends up being a mostly rain event here in Chattanooga if the warm nose ends up getting us. The cold use to look good but it’s getting a bit too close for comfort here.
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I wouldn’t worry about temps till day of . The trend is your friend today . Let’s see how it goes over the next 48 hours


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kell617 said:
Wes Hohenstein in Raleigh is saying on Twitter that we will have zero impact and schools will be open Friday?
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I saw that and almost replied to him. I don’t know how he can confidently say that there WILL be school at this point. It would be much more reasonable for him to say “too early to tell” at this point. Don’t know why anyone would be trying to make a call like that at this point. It is totally within the realm of possibilities that Raleigh will have significant impacts!
 
For NWS Raleigh, this is optimistic.
SnowAmt90Prcntl_NC.png
 
Fisherman said:
Wow this is so similar to

i knew there would be more moisture involved with this storm and wow have things gotten better for my area in north Georgia
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So would it be wrong to call for a dusting of snow for North Georgia?trying time jinx us like last storm and got 3 inches instead?
 
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