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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Jessy89 said:
Not in your exact words but sounds like Chris justice thinks the same thing. His scenario probably not a full scale winter storm but a small event none the less. And I have a feeling the nam will do better with picking up cold air more accurately.


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If you go off the globals, this thing is done for anyone not near the VA/NC border. But even the globals are showing things from a Temperature profile even in the column from a high pressure standpoint that would constitute a colder solution. Now CJ does look like he’s got my similar thinking but he can’t just say there’s going to probably be snow in the upstate with something more concrete showing it. That’s why I see he slapped a winter mix here instead.
 
Not a bad jet look on the 6z gfs some divergence over the area with a primary jet steak off of the MA coast and a secondary jet steak poking into the deep south. This also to me hints at the potential for a weak sfc low to get going embedded within the main precip shieldgfs_uv250_eus_19 (1).png
What is interesting though is now the gfs has a secondary area of fgen over NC. If we get this to become reality there should be a second precip max on the northern edge of the precipitation shield in a W->E band. This may be what some of the ensemble members with the higher qpf values along and east of US1 are keying on1fc0117f-83f3-4c71-88ef-74fc9f77047b.gif
 
I think this is another classic case of the global snot quote modeling the energy well and moisture transport well on the model.. clearly will be a short range model deal as always and a NOWCAST type of thing .. although the systems are different the trigger for precip is the same in both events and it’s what’s almost always under modeled
 
500hv.conus.png

I know it’s the nam at the end of its run but looks very interesting.

I see I was a little late with this:D
 
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Nam is 2/2 this year. I’ll get on the nam ship that will take off tonight. Hopefully it’s a snowy cruise. And not a sinking ship. Early indications are the nam will look better then the globals


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Jessy89 said:
Nam is 2/2 this year. I’ll get on the nam ship that will take off tonight. Hopefully it’s a snowy cruise. And not a sinking ship. Early indications are the nam will look better then the globals


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Yes, the NAM has been very reliable for the thermal profiles this winter, especially inside 36 hours.
 
SD said:
Icon is moving north but farther away with the highView attachment 34663
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Precip is gaining ground on that 540 line..which doesn’t mean much. The flat orientation of precip/southern stream wave is just a back breaker. I feel like if we had more of SW to NE orientation then temps would respond with that big high pressure sitting up top
 
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