Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Stormlover]

I-40 corridor is either dry or light snow at this point IMO. Southward need a lot of help with temperature first.

a little help. not that much though

 

[TheBatman]

Euro came with more moisture but was still a no go..

 

[accu35]

Euro came with more moisture but was still a no go..

If that high can push about 100 miles more south it would work. SMH

 

[Ollie Williams]

The question between snow or not is how much energy can be trapped under this ridge. If energy can be trapped, it try to tilt neutral acting as another source of bringing precip north and lowering upper level heights. If it doesn’t, the energy leftover gets squashed by a ridge. Here is a comparison of a snowy solution and a dry solution. Both are very possible.

 

[John1122]

It was a pretty significant northward and westward jog on the Euro from 12z to 00z with the precip field. The northern edge of the precip at 108 on the 00z was probably 150 miles north of where it was at 120 on the 12z. Areas of Alabama that were blank at 12z had up to .30 that run. Temps are a much bigger issue south of 1-40. Even 850s are 1-3c where the precip is falling.

 

[Ollie Williams]

00z EPS isn’t bad. Precip went south, but there is still a good chunk of members with snow, granted the mean is skewed by member 15

 

[Chandler]

What In the world is member 15 smoking? Ha

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

What In the world is member 15 smoking? Ha

Hopefully the truth ?

 

[Forevertothee]

Discussion from GSP

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 am Sunday: The medium range will begin with chilly/drying
high pressure building south through the forecast in the wake of the
increasingly E/W oriented frontal zone. Global guidance suggests we
are by no means out of the woods regarding the potential for
resurgent moisture into the cool air mass in the Wed night/Thu time
frame, as the 00Z GFS now redevelops precip (albeit primarily a very
cold rain) across roughly the southern half of the area Thu morning.
While the ECMWF remains considerably drier than the GFS, it
nevertheless is trending in a wetter direction, with qpf response
now depicted into the southern half of the forecast area Thu
morning. Needless to say, small pops are retained in the forecast
through the day Thursday, with mainly a mountain snow/Piedmont rain
forecast, although the chance of wintry weather developing east of
the mtns is certainly there if post-frontal precip does indeed
develop. The remainder of the medium range looks dry and colder than
normal.



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[NCCWOP9077]

06z GEFS

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[packfan98]

6z GEFS

 

[Metwannabe]

 

[NCCWOP9077]

View attachment 34607

Really not a bad look for TN, NC, VA, and northern SC perhaps.

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[Shaggy]

6z GEFS

Typically I would be very happy with this. 18 out of 20 members showing me that I'll at least see snow falling and some with a decent hit. Need the euro to start agreeing more and then by Tuesday I'll bite.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

View attachment 34609

Looks colder from higher pressure building in.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

View attachment 34610

How does it compare the 0z Temps?

 

[Ollie Williams]

When looking at the 06z Euro, I believe that this run would look more like 18z yesterday because of the greater separation between the SW in the north and the PV lo in Canada. To get this system to work, we need the energy to dig and it cannot dig if the PV lobe is working to steal the energy from the wave.
06z

0z

notice how the GFS has no energy leftover to dig because the PV stole it.

 

[Ollie Williams]

06z EPS went north with the precip, but not as north as 18z