Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Ollie Williams]

That’s almost a banana high. I just don’t see how you have a 1035 HP in prime CAD position and a 1041 HP moving SE through Missouri and not see a winter storm in this blue zone.

This storm is definitely not your typical setup. H5 will be important in this case to monitor cold.


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[accu35]

Cmc looks like the icon

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is likely gonna be worse, trough is closer which means dry flow out the NW

 

[iGrey_X]

I say we have ourselves a winter storm on the models by Monday. It’s slowly looking better and the players are in prime position for a winter storm.

 

[accu35]

If I were in TN to NC, i be getting little excited. North central bama could be in play. 0z gefs looks little better

 

[Ollie Williams]

GEFS looks a bit better for NC.

 

[TheBatman]

Slight increase in GEFS mean...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

UKMET is suppressed outside of a random strip in NC that's very light but the 850s look pretty good to me. If you could somehow get the precip to make it without it being warm, you would have something.

 

[WxBlue]

I need to see more from EPS before I get excited about this system. Also... ALWAYS worry about the cold first in the South. Having the moisture or not doesn't matter if it's not cold enough ahead of the system.

 

[deltadog03]

I need to see more from EPS before I get excited about this system. Also... ALWAYS worry about the cold first in the South. Having the moisture or not doesn't matter if it's not cold enough ahead of the system.

agreed

 

[WxBlue]

UKMET is suppressed outside of a random strip in NC that's very light but the 850s look pretty good to me. If you could somehow get the precip to make it without it being warm, you would have something.

Make me wonder, once again, how models are handling the isentropic upglide at 700 mb level. As webbweather pointed out over and over... models often underestimate the northward precipitation shield.

 

[Ollie Williams]

So it’s the
18z EPS/Control and GEFS (with a nice event for NC
vs ICON/UKIE/CMC (with no precip in the upper south)
vs the GFS (precip but no cold air)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Basically ensembles vs globals op’s

 

[John1122]

In my experience the two most underdone aspects of almost any southern system are the northern extent of a precip shield and the warm nose. You can often reliably add 100 miles to the Northern edge of a precip shield and 50 to the warm nose.

 

[deltadog03]

Make me wonder, once again, how models are handling the isentropic upglide at 700 mb level. As webbweather pointed out over and over... models often underestimate the northward precipitation shield.

I agree with both of y’all, but I honestly find it a bit puzzling that the euro is still that suppressed. But heck right now, precip or no precip anything south of I-40 is nothing but a cold ass rain. We are all going to need some help in the temp department.

 

[WxBlue]

I agree with both of y’all, but I honestly find it a bit puzzling that the euro is still that suppressed. But heck right now, precip or no precip anything south of I-40 is nothing but a cold ass rain. We are all going to need some help in the temp department.

I-40 corridor is either dry or light snow at this point IMO. Southward need a lot of help with temperature first.

 

[snowlover91]

So it’s the
18z EPS/Control and GEFS (with a nice event for NC
vs ICON/UKIE/CMC (with no precip in the upper south)
vs the GFS (precip but no cold air)

00z UK was a good bit north with precip vs the 12z run.

 

[accu35]

I'm ready for the short range models to start showing. Seems like they are leading the way this winter, LOL!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[deltadog03]

I-40 corridor is either dry or light snow at this point IMO. Southward need a lot of help with temperature first.

I would agree with that as well.