Geez no wonder...
And is that an 850 low I see?
And is that an 850 low I see?
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Clem282340
Member
That looks a lot like the nam at 12z
look like there should of been more snow in the upstate especially in the western section is it to warmLast map from the nam. Storm is still going for the eastern half of nc.
Finally a run that has my interest! Do I believe it, not really just yet. Been Nam'd too many times over the years and got a long ways to go and many runs........................
No. It's pretty much where it was before. Once again, we are sitting pretty good here now. Notice how the bullseye shifted? Being in the bullseye this far out is NOT a good thing.
Storm5
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LovingGulfLows
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NAM with the token backend flakes here. Would be nice.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Amazing what a wicked frontogenesis can do.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Yea I guess being in union county always concerns me when I see mix line down in Lancaster
whatalife
Moderator
Well I’m just a little more interested now. The Nam wasn’t far off for something bigger for the midlands.
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I am in Union too, so I feel your pain. But these are the setups that can really pile up some decent accumulations, especially with some good rates. At this point, I'd prefer to be where I am now, then let's say, Shelby.
LovingGulfLows
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I think there will be more clarity once we get into the 3km NAM range. Just another day or so.
yeah, while December 2018 was a way different setup, that was a nice frontogenic band, and under that thing I saw the heaviest snow rates in my life, anyways the NAM shows impressive frontogenesis at 700mb/850mb during the event 
Six Mile Wx
Member
What could go wrong???
Clem282340
Member
We are so close to seeing something much bigger you think 3k nam will do better with temperatures profile than 12k
temps during the middle of the event, I imagine if those temps were to hold for the Midlands, we’d have more than just rain falling.
Here are some maps that are better, yeah those are boatloads of frontogenesis, my goodness 
Here are a few more for your viewing pleasure
GSO
RDU
PGV with the big dogs!
CLT
GYH
CAE
GSO
RDU
PGV with the big dogs!
CLT
GYH
CAE
Clem282340
Member
Is that mean it’s snowing hard in the upstate trying to learn
SimeonNC
Member
So what is the general timing of this event, Thursday afternoon/evening or is it more of an overnight event? Or is it all too early to ask.
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Thursday into Thursday night.... maybe early Thursday in your area
SimeonNC
Member
Okay, well early Thursday doesn't sound too good due to daytime heating. I hope it holds off until after 12-2pm in that case.
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Could be much more in the upstate if we can get those temps fixed!
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and there is the warm nose for the upstate and clt, early warning shot? late warm noses making our modeled snow turn to sleet has screwed so many storms over the past few years.
Clem282340
Member
How far are they off by
Overall, NAM runs have trended warmer for North Georgia. Looking less and less like an event for North Georgia/ Metro Atlanta (outside of the mountains) but looking at these soundings, it's just so close. 2-3 degree change between now and then and we get widespread heavy accumulations. Is 2-3 degrees too much to ask for at this range? With a warming trend, it seems so,
I think right now it's showing mid-day or so but as happens time and time again, don't be surprised to see it arrive earlier
LovingGulfLows
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I was looking at the sounding at hour 75 for the city of Atlanta....a damn warm nose between 800mb and 850 height is killing us.
Hour 78 might be a snow sounding...definitely at the very least mixed precip.
ICON, looks a little like a deform band signal 
Sctvman
Member
Ed Piotrowski...
Shoot me for "wishcasting" but I got to think it could be more if the ICON verified just because it's usually too warm with temps but either way that's nice right there, real nice.
So close but hell it's 78 hours out. Maybe we can drop a couple of degrees between now and then and get a snow event. Definitely not out of the question given recent systems.I was looking at the sounding at hour 75 for the city of Atlanta....a damn warm nose between 800mb and 850 height is killing us.
Hour 78 might be a snow sounding...definitely at the very least mixed precip.
I have a feeling if we’re going to see warm nose or precip type issues the warning shots will come when the 3km NAM is in range ... until then I really don’t see a warm nose or precip type issues being there for many in NC cold air is filtering in while storm is even going so they would only be at the start anyway and quickly change over .. plus the low is wayyyy out off the ocean .. doesn’t scream warm nose to me
Fountainguy97
Member
18Z ICON is almost identical to the NAM. Its just warmer so more qpf is rain.
LovingGulfLows
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Unfortunately, I just don't think it'll happen this time for much of the metro(I think those farther north in GA have a much better chance). NAM does give some consolation flakes at the end when temps are more than fine at that point. Just don't think it'll get cold enough during the heart of the precip.
That look on the ICON is interesting, can definitely see that little bit of a CAD dome
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
ICON usually is warm biased at the surface so this is great to see, it's basically backing up the latest 18z NAM and 12z EPS
Jessy89
Member
