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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Looks like the morning ensembles are favoring areas towards central/eastern NC and SE Virginia due to a precipitation bump as a weak wave moves along the front into the Atlantic. I suspect we want this feature stronger for more precip or to get more involved? Or does a stronger wave mean more warm air? As usual, another touch and go system
 
Clem282340 said:
Would that be good for the upstate
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It would mean more precipitation, which could help cool the column but at the same time also bring in warmer air. I think this going to be a storm like last week’s surprise where we don’t know what we are getting until it is falling.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a weak low pop off the coast and enhance things for Eastern NC. A good number of GEFS members and some EPS members are hinting at this and I expect when we get in NAM range it will resolve any features like that far better than the globals.
 
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Chris justices thoughts


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I still say cold air is being way under modeled here with 2 high pressures in prime locations for the NE Georgia, upstate, through the I85 corridor in NC north to see snow. Globals have been atrocious this winter with temp profiles as well. We will see what mesoscale models say as well before I write this off. This just looks to be modeled wrong quite frankly. That’s not me letting the love for snow talk either. Too many things in prime locations as well as the faults that these models have shown all winter is leading me to believe those particular areas are in for a potential winter storm.
 
iGrey_X said:
I still say cold air is being way under modeled here with 2 high pressures in prime locations for the NE Georgia, upstate, through the I85 corridor in NC north to see snow. Globals have been atrocious this winter with temp profiles as well. We will see what mesoscale models say as well before I write this off. This just looks to be modeled wrong quite frankly. That’s not me letting the love for snow talk either. Too many things in prime locations as well as the faults that these models have shown all winter is leading me to believe those particular areas are in for a potential winter storm.
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Not in your exact words but sounds like Chris justice thinks the same thing. His scenario probably not a full scale winter storm but a small event none the less. And I have a feeling the nam will do better with picking up cold air more accurately.


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