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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Obviously the trends today is a cold rain. That’s evident but I don’t understand why it’s not colder the high is a strong high. Past events have been a snow storm with a high like that
 
I’d give it a few more days folks, walking a fine line, usually the case for snow in the southeast. As we saw last weekend, minor changes in precip coverage and thermals inside 48hrs can have big consequences in what is realized.
 
Classic example of global NWP not handling northward extent of precip and not catching on to low level WAA responsible for that more expansive precip sheild, this system has trended with more moisture, but also warmer1BABFCC8-CABC-4E97-85EC-2AECE3B93099.gif
 
iGrey_X said:
Quite frankly I think the globals temperature profiles are ridiculous. A high that strong in prime position running step for step with the moisture is a winter storm look if I’ve ever seen one.
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The cold associated with that high comes in eventually, it just has the aforementioned ridge to get through first.

gfs_T850_us_fh90-120.gif
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I’m just utterly confused. A 1045 high is sitting over the Midwest in an arctic air mass and we can’t break 35 degrees. What’s missing here
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If we could get pecip up into NC, it looks like it would be cold enough for snow. 12z shows some snow showers with a little more concentration in the SE portions.
 
FallsLake said:
If we could get pecip up into NC, it looks like it would be cold enough for snow. 12z shows some snow showers with a little more concentration in the SE portions.
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And it could be enough with the isentropic upglide to support the expansion of precipitation shield. Models don't handle this well at all.
 
We would benefit from a slight adjustment in timing and it wouldn’t take much. A slow down of ~6 hours and a continued trend of what we’ve been seeing would help a lot with thermals. I wouldn’t be too worried about temps yet.


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Storm5 said:
I get that snow cover helps but we have to look no further than the system last week that dumped snow on Georgia . There was anemic snow cover to the north then as well


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Just saying it would help that’s all. Didn’t say it had to be there to get cold down here.


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Jon said:
We would benefit from a slight adjustment in timing and it wouldn’t take much. A slow down of ~6 hours and a continued trend of what we’ve been seeing would help a lot with thermals. I wouldn’t be too worried about temps yet.


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Agree with you. We're not too far from getting something up here along I-40 corridor. This storm is making me anxious because I'm supposed to have a first date with someone this Thursday and the uncertainty is stressing me out a bit ?
 
Clem282340 said:
Is the liberty area out on this system for snow
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No way to say anyone is out right now. Theres a ways to go and a ton of model runs to go. The one thing we dont want is it to speed up..we need it to slow down or it's a rain event
 
I can get behind what the CMC is selling this run.
GDPSUS_prec_snow_135.png
 
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