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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

So would it be wrong to call for a dusting of snow for North Georgiatrying time jinx us like last storm and got 3 inches instead

I feel like depending where you are in north Georgia at this point you may end up with a bit more than a dusting


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3km NAM and 12km, along with globals, should be main tools for tomorrow. Ensembles should be near unanimous by then... just have to break it to finer details after that point. Wednesday, it'll be good time to start using RGEM... that's a solid short-range model. By Thursday, we should start ditching globals and shift nearly fully to short-range like RAP and HRRR... as well as mesoscale models like NAM and RGEM.
don't forget the SREF to add to the mix
 
Death and taxes. Why I was confident on this. We have seen this song and dance plenty of times with the models, going back and forth, showing hits, then going away, coming back again, moving NW with the precip.
I know this isn’t prbly what some would consider “scientific” Brick, but there’s a lot of value in “recognizing what typically occurs”. Congrats to y’all in NC. Hope everything holds together for y’all
 
How do NC Mets never learn? LOL seems like every single storm there is a met making crazy assumptions way too early.
As long as they don't pull a Snowmageddon like in 2014, people are not going to be mad even if they wait until 12 hours before the event starts to cancel. But if he goes and says the opposite right now that everything will be shut down and for whatever reason the storm is a bust, there goes ANY credibility that he may have had.
 
This is personal preference, but SREF wasn't that great when I used them for many northern snowstorms. Northeast forum on AmWx hardly mention it. I just think SREF is outdated at this point.
The SREF is wrong most of the time.
 
I feel like depending where you are in north Georgia at this point you may end up with a bit more than a dusting


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I’m about 40 miles north of Atlanta in Cherokee county. My in laws live in Cobb county in Marietta and only got a dusting and I had 3 inches and one county above in Pickens county got 4 1/2 so it’s gonna be close or maybe even better the way the models have been trending even from this morning.
 
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AKQ with low confidence as of this evening.
 
I’m about 40 miles north of Atlanta in Cherokee county. My in laws live in Cobb county in Marietta and only got a dusting and I had 3 inches and one county above in Pickens county got 4 1/2 so it’s gonna be close or maybe even better the way the models have been trending even from this morning.

I’m in north Lumpkin county and if we get more than we did 2 weeks ago I’ll cry.. i don’t know if anyone can tell me what the odds of that happening are LOL


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Huntsville is sitting pretty . Will be interesting to see the trends over the coming two days


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Yes! We in the I-20 corridor are still hoping there’s a rabbit somewhere in this hat....I was checking out the ensembles earlier and I’m prty sure 4 of 12 showed solid hit dwn to I 20 if I understood correctly. Lake Lanier and points north were def golden.
 
As long as they don't pull a Snowmageddon like in 2014, people are not going to be mad even if they wait until 12 hours before the event starts to cancel. But if he goes and says the opposite right now that everything will be shut down and for whatever reason the storm is a bust, there goes ANY credibility that he may have had.
Exactly. The good thing is we are going to be warm until later Wednesday and not in the freezer before the event. If we see snow starting mid afternoon Thursday unless we go right into intense rates roads will be wet/mush until the sun goes down. The bigger issue will be every business in central nc releasing as soon as the first flake is seen and every main road being jammed
 
FWIW, Atlanta friends, at this range with the last system, all models had snow/wintry precip confined to the higher elevations of the NGA mountains. It wasn't until the nam3 came into range that the temps started rapidly dropping south. Plenty of time for temperatures to change the needed 2-4 degrees.
 
FWIW, Atlanta friends, at this range with the last system, all models had snow/wintry precip confined to the higher elevations of the NGA mountains. It wasn't until the nam3 came into range that the temps started rapidly dropping south. Plenty of time for temperatures to change the needed 2-4 degrees.
Looking back, yeah this was definitely true. Have to watch the warm nose and what it does on future runs on the 3KM. As I mentioned earlier, the 3KM has a cooler 850 in CAD regions in N GA. However the nose is above that too.
 
I decided to take a gamble and head back home to Fayetteville for this storm instead of playing it safe in Charlotte. The latest EPS basically summarizes my thoughts on this here in the Sandhills, tons of inter-member variance with large members = go big or go home.
I firmly believe that if it’s cold enough in/around Fayetteville, we’ll probably get plastered with heavy rates

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Yeah someone always seems to get shafted between the transfer....Which low determines where there will possibly be a lull in the moisture?

That someone who gets shafted during the coastal low transfer is almost always the southwestern piedmont of NC and the 85 corridor in upstate SC
 
I decided to take a gamble and head back home to Fayetteville for this storm instead of playing it safe in Charlotte. The latest EPS basically summarizes my thoughts on this here in the Sandhills, tons of inter-member variance with large members = go big or go home.
I firmly believe that if I t’s cold enough in/around Fayetteville, we’ll probably get plastered with heavy rates

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What are your thoughts for far NE NC?
 
FWIW, Atlanta friends, at this range with the last system, all models had snow/wintry precip confined to the higher elevations of the NGA mountains. It wasn't until the nam3 came into range that the temps started rapidly dropping south. Plenty of time for temperatures to change the needed 2-4 degrees.
Yeah me and the wife drove up to Hiawassee in the mountains of north Georgia to see a little snow because they were only calling for a dusting for Cherokee county and up to a inch up in the mountains and that Friday night when we got up there my phone weather alert went off and upgraded Cherokee county up to the mountains to winter storm warnings when I don’t even think we had a winter storm watch before that?..we drove back down the next day and blue ridge had 6 inches on the ground so I think this system will surprise folks again
 
That someone who gets shafted during the coastal low transfer is almost always the southwestern piedmont of NC and the 85 corridor in upstate SC

If the upstate I85 north gets snow. It will come before the transfer likely Thursday evening.


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Yeah someone always seems to get shafted between the transfer....Which low determines where there will possibly be a lull in the moisture?

700 mb frontogenesis is a good hint where secondary band will lay down the snow so it's a bit easy to see where the "screw zone" is setting up during the pivot of storm.
 
FWIW, Atlanta friends, at this range with the last system, all models had snow/wintry precip confined to the higher elevations of the NGA mountains. It wasn't until the nam3 came into range that the temps started rapidly dropping south. Plenty of time for temperatures to change the needed 2-4 degrees.
I was looking at a few members earlier (4/12) that were good all way to I-20 in Ga and likely even more Lanier north. It’s been so heavily modeled towards NC/TN by globals but I’m holding out hope for it to have a better handle on colder temps for our area.
 
Why even use that product... having a product to make aggressive forecast is exactly what it's supposed to be for.
This is going to look incredibley stupid in 3 days.
Looks like this map only goes through Thursday evening. I’m guessing the next update tomorrow morning will beef things up.
 
If the upstate I85 north gets snow. It will come before the transfer likely Thursday evening.


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It’s going to have to. Once this thing transfers to the coast it’s over for the upstate. Sometimes as it consolidates it will pull moisture back over our viewing area but by then it’s spotty.
 
It’s going to have to. Once this thing transfers to the coast it’s over for the upstate. Sometimes as it consolidates it will pull moisture back over our viewing area but by then it’s spotty.

Chris justice sounds optimistic at least. And we got the nam going for us


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It’s going to have to. Once this thing transfers to the coast it’s over for the upstate. Sometimes as it consolidates it will pull moisture back over our viewing area but by then it’s spotty.
It’s not even known that it will transfer at this point. That has really just remotely started showing up today.
 
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