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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Things look good on the 12K Nam, HOWEVER, it is more than prudent to wait until the 3K NAM comes out because with it's higher resolution it will be more precise on the temps. Everybody should read this post below again by Webber where he explains how warm air advection frontogensis, isontropic upglide and orograpich lift can make more out of something that looks like nothing. 12K seems to be picking up on this, let's see if the 3K does as well.
Webberweather53 said:
Remember that in an overrunning setup like this, precipitation, and especially precipitation rates, are going to be almost entirely driven by processes that global NWP models traditionally don't handle terribly well:

1) Low mid-level warm air advection

2) Frontogenesis

3) Isentropic upglide

For those in the western Carolinas and perhaps even NE GA, some element of cold air damming will be present which essentially acts as effective topography, creating the impression of orographic lift. This process to is often misrepresented time & time again in most NWP models, especially global models.
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packfan98 said:
Check please

Our BY would hit climo with the 18zNam. Been waiting for this to pop up past 48 hrs. I think we will see a few more runs as happy and not just from the Nam as we close in. Should get a lot of upglide from several different factors , hybird CAD Dome, front position along with topography and the fetch from a coastal circulation if it develops in the right spot. You rise 1100+ feet from Wilmington up to Asheboro on hwy 64 , on some of the Uwharrie little peaks. Every little bit helps
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man, if we could get heavier precip overhead would think we could overcome this boundary layer temp, but who knows
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SD said:
Here comes the gfs north at 3 days....its like clockwork
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I’m almost wondering if we may have to start sweating temp issues at this rate! We’re not that far off from mixing all of a sudden and you just know that warm nose is going to be more prolific than modeled.

I’m not worried about BL temps, though. Those should be fine provided we get decent rates. Rates will overcome.
 
I'm honestly debating whether to stay back in Charlotte and hope for some snow while areas to my east and northeast probably take a big hit or call out of work for a couple days and head back home to Fayetteville and risk "smelling the rain" but have the potential to jackpot underneath a backside deformation band w/ this coastal low.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm honestly debating whether to stay back in Charlotte and hope for some snow while areas to my east and northeast probably take a big hit or call out of work for a couple days and head back home to Fayetteville and risk "smelling the rain" but have the potential to jackpot underneath a backside deformation band w/ this coastal low.
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I honestly think CLT stands at a solid spot especially if the coastal makes ticks back to the west, Fay is a bit risky but has better potential, hard decision lol but I’d say fay
 
NAM for me shows 34 during most of the precip with a .9 850 temp. So close. It does spit out .4" of snow so maybe it has it waffling back and forth.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm honestly debating whether to stay back in Charlotte and hope for some snow while areas to my east and northeast probably take a big hit or call out of work for a couple days and head back home to Fayetteville and risk "smelling the rain" but have the potential to jackpot underneath a backside deformation band w/ this coastal low.
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No brainer...…..Fayetteville...
 
Gfs totally caving like others have said. Looks like I’ll be traveling north Wednesday afternoon
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Bsud said:
The GFS is just not picking up on the cold across the upstate. If it was it would be showing accumulating snow across there.
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You thinking the GFS is to warm in upstate? I’ll say this the NAM is 2/2 this year so I’m hugging the NAM for now


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Webberweather53 said:
Yes, that's easy to overcome with heavier rates given that the freezing level is below 950mb.
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It’s pretty clear we’re starting down the barrel of a possible moderate to significant winter storm for some ... clear model biases like the global not handling the lifting mechanisms at work are clear .. easily the Gfs will full in as time gets closer as it has done all year right now we need to be looking at ensembles/ SREF/ and short range guidance for real trends in this storm ...


can’t believe we’re actually doing well at reeling this one in
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm honestly debating whether to stay back in Charlotte and hope for some snow while areas to my east and northeast probably take a big hit or call out of work for a couple days and head back home to Fayetteville and risk "smelling the rain" but have the potential to jackpot underneath a backside deformation band w/ this coastal low.
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I'll be in the Wilson area, best shot at snow this side of NC has had all winter.

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Webberweather53 said:
I'm honestly debating whether to stay back in Charlotte and hope for some snow while areas to my east and northeast probably take a big hit or call out of work for a couple days and head back home to Fayetteville and risk "smelling the rain" but have the potential to jackpot underneath a backside deformation band w/ this coastal low.
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I think Charlotte has potential to see some crazy rates as well with the initial band and maybe some deformation/ mesoscale stuff as the storm departs ... could be positives of both ur options
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm honestly debating whether to stay back in Charlotte and hope for some snow while areas to my east and northeast probably take a big hit or call out of work for a couple days and head back home to Fayetteville and risk "smelling the rain" but have the potential to jackpot underneath a backside deformation band w/ this coastal low.
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Web you and I both know how this is going to go, any time our area jackpots at day 3 greensboro gets 8 inches of paste. And we listen to the cold rain. If I could, that's where I'd go.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I honestly think CLT stands at a solid spot especially if the coastal makes ticks back to the west, Fay is a bit risky but has better potential, hard decision lol but I’d say fay
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This is coming from a Charlotte resident and avid snow lover, But I just can’t see Charlotte getting what eastern NC is forecasted for unless there’s some major shifts, maybe Webber cares to chime in?
 
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