Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Ollie Williams]

Check out my fantasy model thread. I got everything updated.

Pattern - Winter 2019/2020 Model Archive

12z GFS 1/28 Same system but meh

southernwx.com

 

[Snowflowxxl]

NC folks are gonna get pounded. I’ve seen this song and dance many a times. Congrats!

 

[tramadoc]

View attachment 35035View attachment 35036

Thank you so much.

 

[norcarolinian]

Wxbell map but here.
View attachment 35039

thanks! like to compare Winston with GSO. The microclimate here is interesting to say the least.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This is coming from a Charlotte resident and avid snow lover, But I just can’t see Charlotte getting what eastern NC is forecasted for unless there’s some major shifts, maybe Webber cares to chime in?

If the NAM is right there is reason to stay in both areas ... Charlotte would see one of its biggest snowstorms in a while but yes Fayetteville would probably cash out more .. if that exact solution was correct

 

[Stormlover]

FWIW, SREF has a mean of around half an inch in north Alabama, but one member in the 6 to 9 inch range. Something to watch.

 

[Snownut]

FWIW, SREF has a mean of around half an inch in north Alabama, but one member in the 6 to 9 inch range. Something to watch.

Do you have the mean for upstate?

 

[Webberweather53]

If the NAM is right there is reason to stay in both areas ... Charlotte would see one of its biggest snowstorms in a while but yes Fayetteville would probably cash out more .. if that exact solution was correct

I definitely think most NWP models are underselling the initial overrunning thump which is what will constitute a majority of what falls in Charlotte but there's no doubt the coastal plain and east-central piedmont of NC are the place to be.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Brad P changing his tune on Twitter

 

[Brick Tamland]

So really the Euro is the only hold out now. And of course WRAL highlights the Euro on facebook.

 

[Stormlover]

Do you have the mean for upstate?

you can pick your locations on here, but it's kind of tricky if you haven't done it before to get to the smaller cities https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

[Cadi40]

I definitely think most NWP models are underselling the initial overrunning thump which is what will constitute a majority of what falls in Charlotte but there's no doubt the coastal plain and east-central piedmont of NC are the place to be.

Do you think some of the totals may shift west? Yes this is my try at wishcasting...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woof

 

[Brick Tamland]

Here comes the gfs north at 3 days....its like clockwork

Death and taxes. Why I was confident on this. We have seen this song and dance plenty of times with the models, going back and forth, showing hits, then going away, coming back again, moving NW with the precip.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some of these members really look like the NAM...

 

[SNOWMANN]

Was just thinking the same thing, I mean look at the accums up in Va now, of course if the NAM were correct but still there's ton's of time for this thing to correct NW even more

I know it's a whole other animal but January 16 comes to mind keep cantore away from Raleigh and you guys might have a shot...

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Some of these members really look like the NAM... View attachment 35041

Boy most of all this members push snow down into Columbia SC!!!!

 

[Downeastnc]

Woof View attachment 35040

There is literally only one of these that does not have snow over most of NC.....I bet its been since Dec 25/26 2010 since every county in NC reported measurable snow in the same event.....this has the potential to do that...

 

[packfan98]

 

[Ollie Williams]

Major increase on the GEFS
For the first time in a year, we have momentum on our side!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Every single member now has something, starting to get excited

 

[Webberweather53]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

 

[Jon]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

Agreed. We are 4 days out and in a good spot.


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[Jessy89]

So basically the trends just begun. This could continue to trend positively for most of the Carolinas


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[NorthGaWinter4]

The GEFS even looks damn good for north Ga

 

[Snownut]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

This is looking like one of those storms that could turn out to be a Storm for most of SC and NC

 

[jackendrickwx]

Some of these members really look like the NAM... View attachment 35041

Great agreement here for everything east of CLT. Does seem a bit odd to me that some have the cold press way south while others keep that little ridge over GSP

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

How about Columbia SC? Models has been trending colder for CAE throughout the day.

 

[Jessy89]

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[Ollie Williams]

GEFS P-type

 

[malak05]

Most of us in GA and Alabama really need to see this thing jog about 75-100 miles south on temps

 

[Ethan80963]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

This might be a stupid question but why would the mean take such a sharp cut in the central upstate? It seems very weird to me

 

[Mitch West]

Some of these members really look like the NAM... View attachment 35041

Some CAE hits, idk about y’all. But is it fair to say this thing has trended colder? I mean sheesh

 

[Webberweather53]

This might be a stupid question but why would the mean take such a sharp cut in the central upstate? It seems very weird to me

A few reasons for that, some of the initial low-level cold air gets blocked by the mountains, there's downsloping which could hurt the I-85 corridor from GSP to CLT and the formation of the coastal low leads to large-scale subsidence west of US HWY 1, shutting off the overrunning snow in areas like Charlotte & Greenville-Spartanburg.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Definitely been a NW trend on the gefs, can actually see a in situ CAD response with that -6 850 line

 

[Shawn]

If this continues, and cooler temperatures do prevail, the area of Florence could see something historic.

 

[Downeastnc]

Agreed. We are 4 days out and in a good spot.


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Really 3 days out....by this time Thurs it will be snowing....so just inside 72 hrs at this point.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'm curious to see how the SR models progress throughout the week. We've seen the NAM with the big snow because of the strong F-gen and WAA. Curious if F-gen and WAA are something globals are flat out just underestimating because of their resolution and the SR models will agree with the NAM going forward, not to an extreme extent, but at least having more precip/snow. Thoughts?

 

[WxBlue]

Yeah, Raleigh, Fayetteville, and most of ENC are sitting pretty right now. I'm really happy to see what we have right now.

 

[iGrey_X]

I'm curious to see how the SR models progress throughout the week. We've seen the NAM with the big snow because of the strong F-gen and WAA. Curious if F-gen and WAA are something globals are flat out just underestimating because of their resolution and the SR models will agree with the NAM going forward, not to an extreme extent, but at least having more precip/snow. Thoughts?

I’d say that’s a really good thought. One reason why I’m not worried about our the upstate gets a little lower on things such as the GFS and GEFS. NAM does a lot better with temp profiles and overall boundary layer stability and air flow.