iGrey_X
Member
The Euro has been very bad with temperature profiles lately. That cold air is coming out ahead of the moisture more and more with each run so far today.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
ajr
Member
Womp. Weak and suppressed.
But don’t worry. Here’s your DP’s after all the moisture has moved out. I wish this didn’t look like cold chasing moisture on the Euro..bleh
Ensembles vs globals Rn, exactly why I’m not freaking out
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Let's see what we have with EPS...
Here’s the Canadian ensembles, once again showing that maximum in eastern NC, and looks solid for NC in general 
I don't like it when you have a few ensemble members showing something but not the operational. I know some don't mind not having the Euro onboard, but this is it's money range. If we're talking about missing a phase by a few miles, I could get with the idea that a small change or two leads to a Boom. But in this setup, we're going to need more than one or two baby steps, if the Euro is even close to reality here. I'll be happy to take the egg on my face if I'm wrong. We'll see.
Btw, maybe if we had a 1070 High, we'd get some cold in here. Smh.
I really do not understand how the Euro is so dry compared to CMC and GFS. Comparing them at 500 they look to me quite similar, it even looks like the Euro is further west with the energy we keep watching to help fuel more precipitation. ?
As far as the overrunning is concerned, we’re hoping for those jet steaks to produce further north and NOT necessarily for a northward jump at this point. Any more of a northward jump on the Euro and we might be in the 50’s..and even with a high approaching 1050 right smack dab in the middle of the country..man, go figure ??
??
It could be that the Canadian and GFS are not very good models. Or maybe the Euro is way out to lunch.
Last edited:
Nam is definitely on the CMC/ GFS side of things
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Judging by what I’ve seen here this year, I’d say the latter.
snowlover91
Member
The Euro in the "fantasy" range 7+ days out had a few runs with a threat but since getting inside 5-6 days where it typically is the go to model it has been consistently suppressed. It may end up being right, but the jump it experienced yesterday especially on the EPS was pretty sudden, going from 0 members with snow to 25-30 for the Carolina area. The difference between the wetter GFS and CMC vs the Euro/UK is pretty big still.
iGrey_X
Member
Right now I’d saw those in that purple region will get a wintery mix but there’s plenty of time for that to trend colder especially with so much high pressure moving in and appears to move in quicker. Those on the northern fringe in the light blue are fighting moisture issues but these things tend to trend NW and more moisture is showing up. Those is the darker blue in my opinion have the best shot for a winter storm. The high pressure is moving into a prime spot and you can see the buckling of isobars for the CAD regions as well. With moisture trending further north as well, these areas at this moment appear to have the best shot for something. Models won’t likely even begin converging on something until tomorrow around the 12z runs.
Attachments
snowlover91
Member
As far as model verification scores go at 5h, the Euro and UK are still the top two models but it doesn't mean they are correct with the evolution of the precipitation field either. GFS is dead last and CMC is 3rd.
