Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Maybe someone posted this already. Seems decent to me

 

[Chandler]

E NC is the place to be for the best opportunity per 12Z EPS:

View attachment 34699

looks like a decrease.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS headed the wrong direction again, waffling a bit, but generally has been downward since yesterday’s 18z, gefs continues to hold steady

 

[Broken024]

12z JMA and Navgem look supressed too

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Right now I’d saw those in that purple region will get a wintery mix but there’s plenty of time for that to trend colder especially with so much high pressure moving in and appears to move in quicker. Those on the northern fringe in the light blue are fighting moisture issues but these things tend to trend NW and more moisture is showing up. Those is the darker blue in my opinion have the best shot for a winter storm. The high pressure is moving into a prime spot and you can see the buckling of isobars for the CAD regions as well. With moisture trending further north as well, these areas at this moment appear to have the best shot for something. Models won’t likely even begin converging on something until tomorrow around the 12z runs.

I hope you end up correct. At this time though I have a hard time believing anywhere south of I40 see anything more than token flakes. It will be hard to overcome the surface temps the globals are showing. That's a wet bulb temp of 39 at CLT. Once the short range models come into range they'll probably be a little colder but probably not enough. I don't see how we get accumulating snow along 85 from GSP to CLT south and east.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Or, I'm hoping for a more expansive precip field. More amped and that could hurt folks down east and maybe even us.

I think Wake County northeast to Norfolk will end up being the jackpot zone.

 

[snowlover91]

An interesting observation on how quickly a N trend can happen and precip can shift north. Look at the NAM for the system moving through the southeast today as modeled 81 hours out.



Now here is the NAM for 9 hours from the 12z run.


This goes to show how dramatic a N trend can be with the precip even inside 84 hours.

 

[Broken024]

I think hope Wake County northeast to Norfolk will end up being the jackpot zone.

 

[Cadi40]

Let’s maybe try to keep wishcasting out of this thread?

 

[iGrey_X]

Having to monitor the NAM on the phone and it’s a little tough to see everything but it looks good to me so far. The energy looks consolidated more and the trough looks further west

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nam looked worse this run. Still not bad
12z

18z

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

At the end of the NAM run, it has a 1050 HP in the Midwest ?‍

 

[iGrey_X]

Agreed the NAM looked okay. No bad but not great either after getting on the computer.

 

[iGrey_X]

However there is a 1050 HP and what looks to be CAD forming. We will see what comes of it later on.

 

[Ollie Williams]

While H5 on the Nam looked a tick worse, it is much colder

 

[Crow]

Can someone post the individual members for the 12z EPS? Long time viewer, first time poster here in N central NC. Hopefully we can reel this one in.

 

[WxBlue]

While H5 on the Nam looked a tick worse, it is much colder

Maaaaybe a net positive? We definitely could use more cold.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

850 freezing line a little farther south this run, needs to keep trending south

 

[iGrey_X]

H5 was slightly worse, not really much to harp on but the temperature swing is really what to take away as the 2m temperatures dropped 12-13 degrees across the upstate and I40 and I85 corridor in NC. The 850’s 0C line went from I40 down to the NC/SC border. That is telling that temperatures are likely going to continue be modeled lower. As time continue to gets closer.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NAM with a 1058 and 1050..also has a rain storm breaking out across the south..smh