iGrey_X
Member
HP moving out ahead of the moisture on the GFS. H5 looks better and the cold push is beginning to appear much better as well.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Suppressed.. step towards the ECMWF. Not too good imo
packfan98
Moderator
I’m not sure. The bulk of the precip seems more suppressed and lighter at 99 to me on the instaweathermaps. we will see shortly.
S/W digs, but the PV doesn't and the wave can't mature.
Chattownsnow
Member
look at the northern extent of the precip shield change over 5 runs north of Texas. That’s significant.iGrey_X
Member
Very telling that as you get closer to verification time the moisture is becoming much more prominent. That should be very telling down stream for the Carolinas.
I've said it many times and will say it again: You never want to be in the bullseye 5 days out. Been burned too many times. Also, while it's not guaranteed, the NW is trend is real and will most likely come to fruition if we don't lose the storm altogether. Still plenty of times for things to go right or wrong, depending on your location.
Chattownsnow
Member
the wave just collapses and dampens out as it heads East, choking the moisture flow from the Southwest. If it could just hang on a little longer...
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Been saying this all along (despite folks disagreeing), but this system will come down to temperatures for most of us. I have no doubt that the precip will be much more expansive/n than currently projected. As of right now, however, most will just see rain.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Moisture is not going to be a problem. We need temps to improve quite a bit, don’t even look at precip, it will be there
John1122
Member
That east Iowa HP with moisture blossoming in Texas has always been a Tennessee snow set up. Rarely is the high 1045+ though and that is a major model bias. I'd be very surprised if that high verified over 1040. So maybe it won't have as much squashing power.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Maybe the unusually strong HP will cause temps to trend downward... that's what we need!
Cary_Snow95
Member
Only thing keeping the gfs from looking like the cmc is the trough doesn’t dig with the wave. The wave deepens on this run and the trough just splits off instead of digging
iGrey_X
Member
Every model is around 1047+ for the HP so that is very likely to take place.
John1122
Member
The February 2014 snow event had a high in the same spot but it was 1035. That's plenty to get snow even down to Atlanta.
John1122
Member
I'll believe it when I see it. I see way too many 1045-1050 highs on modeling that verify at 1035 or less when it comes time. This one may be the exception to that but I wouldn't wager money on it.
Jessy89
Member
I don’t understand why the models have it so warm with such a strong high pressure. This is very very unusual situation. In the past Atlanta to Columbia north would see snow. But not this time. GFS=Rain
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
iGrey_X
Member
I highly doubt the High will be 1050 but I’ll equally doubt the high will be below 1040. 1044-1047 look very real.
ajr
Member
Agree with others we just need to keep an eye on how things evolve. This happening upstream:
With this amount of moisture:
And this degree of divergence aloft:
Is probably the best overall setup we’ve had this winter <5 days out.
With this amount of moisture:
And this degree of divergence aloft:
Is probably the best overall setup we’ve had this winter <5 days out.
iGrey_X
Member
That’s why I just don’t believe in the northern upstate that it will be rain. A high that strong moving in tandem with moisture is a winter storm if I’ve ever seen one.