14 members now are getting north Georgia back in play. Slowly but surely. Reminds me of last weekend when we were only supposed to get a dusting the up to the night before the event and we got a little over 3 inches in Cherokee county Georgia.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Was just thinking about that. We didn't get much here in Marietta but I drove up 575 to Canton to see the snow.
The models trended colder and juicier as we got within 72 hours. If that happens with this system, it could be pretty impactful. Different from last weekend bc 1) that was a weekend and 2) this one has more precip.
IMO we have to get that high (or the effects From it) down into the SE quicker. It’s trying
Jessy89
Member
Eastern NC north eastern South Carolina this is trending into a winter storm. Plenty of moisture available when the cold air gets there
NE ga upstate sc mountains nc snow may fall but likely a glacé and blow. Perhaps a dusting to a couple inches in high elevations.
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Here’s what I think rn, first call map, note this isn’t a accumulation map but more of a map of certainty/uncertainty and probability, wayyy to early to focus on accumulation, but here it is, my 2nd ugly map of the winter 
18z Euro looks like it will be slightly better. It seems as if, 06/18z runs have better trends and 12z/00z have worse.
More amped this run, and this gif decided to be blurry lol 
much further north this run
18z
12z
18z
12z
Interesting to watch models trend better with that batch of moisture in KS/ PH of TX/OK
You're 100% right and that also goes for 850s. But up in NC it is still cold enough and the heavier qpf is resulting in more snow.
We'll have to see from Ollie or whomever posts where the under 0.5" amounts are located.
Highest EPS mean and members since 18z yesterday.
Can kinda see that weak “coastal” signal
Member 15 back at it again... sheesh
Broken024
Member
It has to be a bad sign if the op models are showing nothing right? Seems like we are close enough to follow them.
It's still a good idea to follow ensemble members at this range. Operational runs can lag a bit before the "trend" begins in the 36-72 hours.
Edit. Operationals are important, but looking at the 500mb maps of the euro ensemble mean, there's something in the southern stream that pokes out that can be quite a forecast challenge.
Jessy89
Member
So speaking to my upstate sc folks. And maybe NE Georgia to. We can keep watching this sure. But I believe we seen enough. This is going to be mostly rain can’t rule out token flakes but this will not be a winter storm for us. As for Eastern NC and NE Sc a winter storm is possible and I’m hoping people that hadn’t had snow in a while gets some.
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