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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

We need a ask Webber thread lol. How’s myrtle beach looking in your opinion. Some models kinda trended away and some are still hanging on and giving hope. All I’m hoping for is enough to coat the grass. An inch would be fantastic
 
Webberweather53 said:
Moisture will be the limiting factor but I really love where the northern coastal plain and SE VA are sitting rn. If snow is realized, it’ll probably be heavy- very heavy in the coastal plain
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I hope I don’t come off as annoying but what do you think for areas east of CLT like concord/albemarle or SE like Monroe, kinda wanna see you opinion, if I’m not mistaken if a transfer was to happen those areas are right on the edge, right ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I hope I don’t come off as annoying but what do you think for areas east of CLT like concord/albemarle or SE like Monroe, kinda wanna see you opinion, if I’m not mistaken if a transfer was to happen those areas are right on the edge, right ?
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Most of the snow for those areas if a transfer happens would come from the front end overrunning thump, a coastal transfer would basically screw over areas like Charlotte and shut off the precip a bit earlier than it would otherwise, leading to lower totals.
 
I've been mostly silent, not wanting to throw a wrench in what mother nature has planned but the ingredients for me, us, here, were on the field as early as last Wednesday. I kept the hype to a min with those I reach out to offline until Thursday, expecting the classic 168-120hr loss, and trend back. Couple items to look at as we inch closer to verification

Overrunning will come in ahead of schedule, the wet tongue is what those back west need to focus on as that will lay down your accum.

A local min, usually ivo SE Wake county, as the coastal gets spun up.

Warming aloft for the coastal plain inside 48hrs on the meso models, around 900mb.

Northward trend of ground zero, right now I am thinking Wilson, Tarboro, up in to NE NC and SE VA. That could be a little over done with the northward extent, the HP is crashing through the mid-west which is somewhat atypical, usually we see a central plains deep dive.

My last point illustrates the limit of northward progression of a coastal, which should, high res NAM willing, limit the 3rd point.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most of the snow for those areas if a transfer happens would come from the front end overrunning thump, a coastal transfer would basically screw over areas like Charlotte and shut off the precip a bit earlier than it would otherwise, leading to lower totals.
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Thanks man for your input
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most of the snow for those areas if a transfer happens would come from the front end overrunning thump, a coastal transfer would basically screw over areas like Charlotte and shut off the precip a bit earlier than it would otherwise, leading to lower totals.
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Can coastals push snow back to southeast Charlotte areas?
 
Goldman75 said:
We need a ask Webber thread lol. How’s myrtle beach looking in your opinion. Some models kinda trended away and some are still hanging on and giving hope. All I’m hoping for is enough to coat the grass. An inch would be fantastic
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NWP have generally trended colder today which is good news for folks south of Raleigh wrt snow chances. I don’t feel too confident about there being snow in general once you get south of about Dillon-Lumberton-Elizabethtown, but if it’s actually cold enough, definitely the potential exists for accumulation. Odds of at least seeing snow falling from the sky down there are probably about 1 in 3 imo
 
Broken024 said:
Can coastals push snow back to southeast Charlotte areas?
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Really strong coastals that are tucked in close to the coast tend to deliver backend snow to Charlotte, but the problem is those types of storms are typically preceded by a lot of cold rain or significant mixing problems, Charlotte and the rest of the SW piedmont rarely does well at all with coastal lows. What we usually excel at is an overrunning event or upper low, and sometimes a very deep & cold CAD will also work wonders.

December 2010 imo generally synthesizes how the snowfall distribution typically looks in these kinds of storms. Snow favored in the mountains and far western piedmont with extremely strong coastals, I-95/US HWY 1 corridor and points east tend to be favored the most with weaker, offshore coastals like the one forecast this week

December 25-26 2010 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really strong coastals that are tucked in close to the coast tend to deliver backend snow to Charlotte, but the problem is those types of storms are typically preceded by a lot of cold rain or significant mixing problems, Charlotte and the rest of the SW piedmont rarely does well at all with coastal lows. What we usually excel at is an overrunning event or upper low, and sometimes a very deep & cold CAD will also work wonders.

December 2010 imo generally synthesizes how the snowfall distribution typically looks in these kinds of storms. Snow favored in the mountains and far western piedmont with extremely strong coastals, I-95/US HWY 1 corridor and points east tend to be favored the most with weaker, offshore coastals like the one forecast this week

View attachment 35072
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I will say most of the 5 inches from that storm in Monroe fell after the coastal transfer and we got in on the deform band. We actually only had about 1/2 an inch from the overrunning portion as we waited on a changeover
 
Christmas / Boxing Day 2010 was dependent on a phase which guidance picked up 240-120hrs out, lost inside day 5 and brought back to some extent inside 72. The early DGEX runs were weenie blotches. We really did not know the phase was going to happen until RAP runs inside 18hrs indicating a late hookup over the FL panhandle. Classic late blooming Miller A with a MA skip. Much different setup this go round.

hpc.compare.chart.animation.gif
 
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