Yeah some people create their own models to show us what we want but doesn't mean it will happen. Trust me I'd love for the CMC to get this right but not hanging my hat on it that's for sure.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Some EPS members have hinted at a similar scenario where NE NC/tidewater VA is ground zero. A late blooming coastal.
ajr
Member
The nice thing is that temps are crashing while that low is spinning up
Ok it's just terrible.... I mean the wilkes mspaint model has higher verification scores than the GFS lately Lol. But from a H5 recognition stand point I guess it does have some validity, if the Euro sees it then I'm all in
Snowflowxxl
Member
Cmc seems more likely than GFS at this point IMO. I have no real dog in this fight considering my area isn’t going to be involved. If I was in NC or esp eastern NC I would be pumped
There still some hope for N AL I see, and the NAM is one of the main sources of that hope right now, and to some extent the GFS, which have been trending a bit colder with the 850s.
Upstate will get zero benefits from a coastal. CMC went boom and funneled cold air down into the moisture. That upstate fantasy snow was basically a mirage on the CMC. We need the early overrunning to come in colder with more precip if we want this thing to work out here
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Plus, Canadian had a huge update that should boost 2.5x in performance. Agree with you about needing the Euro's support, though.
Jessy89
Member
Basically this is looking like the year 2000. That storm they called the Carolina crusher. It didn’t do hardly anything in the upstate. I lived in Elgin Sc at the time and got 5 inches
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Nice look on the CMC.
Make sure not to hug this model due to what it has verbatim. More so, think of it as a live saver that the quest for a major storm with this setup isn’t over. This will also make continuous runs less painful, as you can say, the model watchin’ ain’t over yet.
Make sure not to hug this model due to what it has verbatim. More so, think of it as a live saver that the quest for a major storm with this setup isn’t over. This will also make continuous runs less painful, as you can say, the model watchin’ ain’t over yet.
Can’t wait to see the CMC ensembles .. GEFS looked like it shifted the mean south a bit .. looking to be a Carolina special
Meanwhile GEFS ensembles shifted south. Much better look for CAE.
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Yeah..watch out
Far from over ?...GEFS says nobody is in or out of this just yet
Far from over ?...GEFS says nobody is in or out of this just yet
Ukmet still suppressed. The Ukie has been know to have a left bias with tropical systems, and a south bias during winter storm.
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Exactly, sitting pretty here with the tendency for more WAA (for lift and precip) to allow a more expansive precip sheild
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
And, in fact, coastals will rob our area of moisture. Once the low transfers to the coast it shuts moisture off here. Temps will crash on the backside but too late of course.
We do seem to score pretty well in these setups. Of course much can and will change.