CMC pulled the rug Charlotte metro region north. Nada. Not what you want to see at this point in the game.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
geez can we just have agreement, this is starting to become a forecasting nightmare, lol
Wow at CMC temps. Single digits in the mtns. Low teens for most in NC post storm. Mega cold board wide.
Cadi40
Member
The euro is definitely going to pull on the CMC and ICON.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
UK precip--still a no go. So in reality its the American models against the world. That almost never works out.
LovingGulfLows
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People are going to hate the NAM forever if it flubs this event so for it's sake, I hope it ends up being accurate.
Cadi40
Member
I can’t see the future but I also can’t see the euro suddenly jumping from one polar opposite to the other within one run...
CL-east out towards eastern NC looks better, no cap, that solid band of snow on the backside is showing itself 
right or wrong, this sounding is a thing of beauty. Modeled "ripping" at it's finest. 
So a little more model comparison 12k NAM vs. WRF-ARW at 12z Thursday much more colder CAD signature and overall temps in the 850s in the WRF we shall see precipitation is a little more suppressed it seems but still should see in to SC/NC
HRW-WRF SSL similar to NAM with cold press and Moisture being further north but parts of GA and AL above I-20 are 4-5 degrees colder on the SSL compared to NAM
HRW-WRF SSL similar to NAM with cold press and Moisture being further north but parts of GA and AL above I-20 are 4-5 degrees colder on the SSL compared to NAM
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
UK precip--still a no go. So in reality its the American models against the world. That almost never works out.
Compare to its previous runs yesterday there's definitely been a northward jog.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Perhaps the silver lining is that, according to my recollection, it's never easy reeling in one of these. There are always model wars and back and forth right up to go time. It may be magnified in this situation because of the bleak winter (pretty much back-to-back winters) so far. Who knows, maybe the NAM is on to something and maybe the EC will come in and save the day.
i wonder if something as simple as a feb 11 2014 repeat is possible, that's kinda in between the NAM/GFS/EURO/UK and ensembles, just a bit warmer, maybe just a little more amped than that setup
Looking at radar trends with system moving through SC and GA now it’s pretty suppressed in my opinion.??
Is this a sign of things to remain suppressed?
Is this a sign of things to remain suppressed?Shaggy
Member
Seems most models are targeting the coastal plains pretty well the last 2 days with a band of of much heavier totals. That area is west of me on the CMC and just south or over me on the nam/gfs and then the euro just has me concerned all around.
We have to start looking at short range guidance rather than globals ... I mean we do remember the fact that the euro never saw the last storm until after the snow was falling? And the NAM had the storm from hour 84..
this is quite true, its under 60 hours on the NAM, where it starts taking control
We know the NAM overdoes precip on the reg. The GFS seems reasonable, but I'm still uncomfortable until I see the Euro and UK join the party. If they continue to hold out, then we're definitely going to have a problem. Good to see the UK trend northward from yesterday. So, there's still time.
And we cannot be the forum of every singular model runs .. if tonight’s models continue the trend of “suppression” then okay we will have two days for the NW trend to become evident again ... I don’t think anyone in NC should be freaking out .. and as long as the NAM holds true I’m confident in that
ever since the upgrade, the NAM has actually been pretty good with precip, in fact lower at times, its just its H5 amp bias that can show up at times, which can makes things look juicy
was i not supposed to go off the deep end yet?
Usually Surry/Wilkes (part 1 pink) share the miss on sketchy transfers. But the signal is there for a growing miss well to the south-west (part 2 purple). During extreme messy transfers you can start to see Raleigh west (part 3 blue) will begin to suffer too. I did not like that ICON run at all. 
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From what I’ve seen from overnight into this morning, it doesn’t look like far NE NC gets into this very much. Good luck to everyone else!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z RGEM is significantly south of the 12z NAM out to the end of its run (48 hr)
Still in a decent spot compared to most. But for now, south of Raleigh looks best seated to this party.
MichaelJ
Member
Yep and I would not be surprised to see the NAM follow. The GFS is correcting towards the NAM because it is run on the same basic data as the NAM but with a much lower resolution which often times takes a while to catch up with the NAM with it's poorer resolution for specific regional areas
which is a bit concerning, nams support each other in the short range but that's kinda it
LovingGulfLows
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That's the first time I've heard this. Is there a source for this?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least we still have the NAVGEM... #desperate
at this point, its best to go with something in between the NAM/GFS the euro/UK, no model is gonna exactly get it right, it's best to get a blend with this amount of uncertainty
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely feeling a lot better about my idea to go to Fayetteville for this one, feeling really good about my chances here. Also helps I’m on the south side of town
Shaggy
Member
Yeah that's a red flag but at this point its time to grab on and ride the horse till the end. These are never easy to nail down and in one camp its a crush job the other hints at far less moisture.
It’s going to be close for us, that 12z nam scared the dickens outta me but I’m relieved to see not all models went for an over amped output.
And as long as you’re feeling good in FAY I’ll ride or die into the mud puddles!
'
kinda feeling sketchy here in concord, if a transfer was to occur, id be screwed, at least i'm a bit east of CLT which helps in this setup, and i at least expect some overrunning precip
kinda feeling sketchy here in concord, if a transfer was to occur, id be screwed, at least i'm a bit east of CLT which helps in this setup, and i at least expect some overrunning precip
iGRXY
Member
One thing the NAM has going for it is we are in its wheelhouse and it really picks up on the Fgem especially in the 850 and 700mb. That is one reason why I believe it has a better fix. The Euro is normally the king but has been subpar here recently especially with the last two systems. A mixture of 75%/25% of NAM and GFS to EURO/UKIE is probably a good blend which really helps with the warm nose issues as well.
Downeastnc
Member
I think we are golden, this is a different kind of storm and the usual hangups wont be as big of a issue this time around I think.....the NAM/GFS big dogs may be over done but in the end the potential here is pretty huge for a pretty big significant event over the eastern half of NC.....just need the NAM to have this one right....I feel like 3-6" is totally doable at this point....the cold is strong and it should flip to all snow quickly, the rates should be impressive once it gets cranking as well. There should be a solid 6-8 hrs window of moderate to at times heavy snow if the NAM/GFS runs pan out, and there will be a few hrs of light snow either side of that as well.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah good choice. Areas in between Charlotte and Fayetteville are looking super suspect right now. That transfer might be a killer