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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

I’ll have what the GFS is having for dinner. However! At this lead time I’m not sure it’s good to be in the bullseye..
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GFS Vort maps aren’t even anything that would make you drool over. You don’t need that wave in the SW to kick at all. It just needs to spark the fire with that piece from the southern branch and not get squashed out front. Really not that many moving parts here if we’re being totally honest. Really good look here. Really good 09BCA669-C0D8-40E0-810F-B675C7125889.png
 
Well, I would think with the heavy rates the snow depth chart would be a little better than this. Looks like the temperatures bottom out at 34 during the event.
snod.us_ma.png
 
Well, I would think with the heavy rates the snow depth chart would be a little better than this. Looks like the temperatures bottom out at 34 during the event.
snod.us_ma.png

Lol so it thinks it'll snow 5-9 inches in places(rates of 1-2 inch per hour at some points), but only accumulate an inch at most? Even I got an inch of accumulation this past event with borderline temperatures and I couldn't have gotten more than 1.5-2 inches of snowfall(with only 25 minutes of heavy snow).
 
Well, I would think with the heavy rates the snow depth chart would be a little better than this. Looks like the temperatures bottom out at 34 during the event.
snod.us_ma.png
I don’t think snow depth maps handle these situations well.

Anyways, Happy Hour GFS delivers.
 
I’m no met and understand this my not be the usual setup but I’ll take suppression rt now too. May eat my words but im
yeah...I don’t like seeing that 5.5” rt over my house at this time. GFS needs to go easy on me......I’d settle for a fringe inch and being on N side for a cpl more runs. I firmly expect a N shift w precip field. Climb and history....
 
More climo to consider:

Here are the dates for which I've found a 3.5" plus official ATL snow and/or 1.5”+ sleet event since 3/1876 (39 of them or one every 3.5 years)(I counted only Jan 12 of the 1/12-14/1982 event and Feb 15 of the 2/12-15/1885 event for this second table) :


DEC: 2, 3-6, 11-13, 29

JAN: 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 23, 26, 28, 29-30

FEB: 10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 12-13, 14-15, 15, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26

MAR: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24

Note the 9 bolded storms, which are within 6 days of Feb 20th. That is almost 1/4 of the storms just within days of 2/20! So, the point is that Feb 20th is in the midst of one of the most climo favored periods at ATL for a major snow or sleet, the last half of Feb.
 
GFS Vort maps aren’t even anything that would make you drool over. You don’t need that wave in the SW to kick at all. It just needs to spark the fire with that piece from the southern branch and not get squashed out front. Really not that many moving parts here if we’re being totally honest. Really good look here. Really good View attachment 34358

You don’t need the SW ULL at all that’s true. But we never needed it, unless it was gonna kick and link with cold it’s worthless.

But what creates the SW ULL eventually means that the NS will be too flat and less elongated and “tip heavy” meaning it would have less of a chance to dig and go neutral, creating a bigger system.

Our best bet now, because of the SW ULL, is a light system... unless for some reason the modeling is missing out on some energy we have yet to see and I doubt it.

Edit: I will say the GFS is trending nicely with the main northern stream confluence just west of the lakes. This is a new and helpful development

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