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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Jessy89 said:
Marginal temps I expect it to trend a little colder


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The thing I like is you and I have already scored twice this winter in marginal setups. Some winters it just wants to snow in the mid 30’s and some winters it wants to rain at 33
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
I’m not complaining. When we get snow I feel like my area and forsythsnows area get the most
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We really do get a lot. We got a good amount in Dec 2017, and last week we got a fairly large amount as well. I think the terrain helps to some degree. I just want the rain/snow line far south of here.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
I’m not complaining. When we get snow I feel like my area and forsythsnows area get the most
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If you look close at that Lake Lanier area it is actually a snow hole. I lived on the lake a couple years ago and it happened. We had a snow rain mix where nothing really stuck to the ground while 5 miles in every direction got 2+ inches.
 
smast16 said:
I noticed that too. If you look at total snowfall map on TT it shows a goose egg for the NC Piedmont. I think it's just sooo marginal we are seeing the different algorithms for each site come into play.
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Yeah I agree and that's where soundings will be key as well as the NAM once in range, assuming this is a threat at that point. With the cold 850s and heavy precip rates and precip modeled coming in during the night I have a hard time believing the temps stay at 36F with rain/snow mix like the GFS is advertising.
 
The key for me at this stage is you want ensemble support to continue getting better rather than the flip flops of the GFS and other models. You also will want Euro back on board and for the EPS to start showing a stronger signal soon if this is going to be a legit threat. Without better EPS support and Euro support I would be highly skeptical at this point until they come on board (if they even do).
 
CMC is kicking the energy east
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2m’s are running in the mid 30’s but this looks really good to me. Really good if you like moisture with your marginal cold 5E0E10D1-BA35-43B5-A345-DBF2E144FDD1.png
 
Gfs definitely looked like it went towards what it’s 06z ensemble members gad been showing .. so it looks like the model has a good head on its shoulders right now let’s see if it’s 12z ensembles after along with other supporting members
 
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