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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Brick Tamland said:
But the GFS has been looking better today than it did yesterday. ?‍♂️
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It’s trending slightly but the euro caved to the gfs. The idea of holding back the energy is a reality now. Without the energy kicking out you can forget any large storm. Only modest flurries at best with cold chasing moisture. The H5 pattern is slipping away with this one
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Imo suppressed is not the true outcome we’re seeing. No energy is getting kicked out and each run more energy gets held back. There’s nothing to push moisture if this keeps trending this way
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Exactly, this isn't your NW trend scenario..... you (not you specifically lol) have to understand what's going on with the upper energy, we just can't broad brush this with the usual "I'll take suppression at this lead time" thought.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Imo suppressed is not the true outcome we’re seeing. No energy is getting kicked out and each run more energy gets held back. There’s nothing to push moisture if this keeps trending this way
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You’re absolutely right..I feel like there’s some
middle ground here..here’s the difference in “no storm” and “storm”

UK 14471845EDD-437B-41DE-98A0-E01A795E79BE.jpeg
Euro 144
B2136BA6-894A-4C9C-B290-0728DFCC8E8D.jpeg
 
As long as a model shows it. There potential. Since it’s the GFS though probably only a 5% chance though
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
It’s trending slightly but the euro caved to the gfs. The idea of holding back the energy is a reality now. Without the energy kicking out you can forget any large storm. Only modest flurries at best with cold chasing moisture. The H5 pattern is slipping away with this one
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Not sure you can call it a trend when they both have been seesawing the past 24 hours. Euro looked good yesterday, GFS didn't. Euro didn't look as good today, GFS looked better. Canadian looked better, too. They are all still going back and forth.
 
metwannabe said:
Exactly, this isn't your NW trend scenario..... you (not you specifically lol) have to understand what's going on with the upper energy, we just can't broad brush this with the usual "I'll take suppression at this lead time" thought.
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Exactly. Each run that energy is cutting off stronger and stronger. Eventually it’ll be simply be just the trough swinging through and a giant ULL over Southern California.. by the time it kicks it’s Useless
 
The energy we are talking about that forms this storm still hasn’t even formed yet .. we will have absolutely no idea what the final outcome is at this range when that is the case .. there’s little to no sampling being done on it yet and the models will continue to flip flop until we get a definitive piece of energy formed and modeled
 
whatalife said:
Doesn’t the euro like to hold energy back a little to much?


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It certainly used to be a known bias, I'm not sure if that's the case anymore tbh.... odd thing is the GFS is usually too progressive and it's been holding it back, so who knows lol
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure you can call it a trend when they both have been seesawing the part 24 hours. Euro looked good yesterday, GFS didn't. Euro didn't look as good today, GFS looked better. Canadian looked better, too. They are all still going back and forth.
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They aren’t see sawing. Look at an H5 map brick. Gfs has had the idea of holding it back all along. And now the euro is doing it too. Our idea of getting it to kick for a large storm is slipping away. Euro trended about 95% of the way toward the gfs.
 
GFS Vort maps weren’t good either but it still had overrunning and plenty of precip thrown north. I’m just not completely sold that we need that thing to kick east and turn neutral or negative in order to get some weak overrunning here which has been the best case outcome from the beginning IMO. That’s just my opinion. Like I said, I feel like there’s some middle ground here FBD954BF-456E-4DFB-8C9D-4E2C15A27495.jpeg
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
They aren’t see sawing. Look at an H5 map brick. Gfs has had the idea of holding it back all along. And now the euro is doing it too. Our idea of getting it to kick for a large storm is slipping away. Euro trended about 95% of the way toward the gfs.
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But again, the GFS looked better today compared to yesterday. They are going back and forth as far as what they show for the outcome and as far as one being better one day, and the other looking better the next. And there is still time for more changes.
 
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