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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

GaWx

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Regardless of whether or not it pans out, I'd say that for a good 75%+ of winters there will not be this level of wintry threat just 5-7 days out for late Feb. So, keep that in mind that we're blessed just having this threat.

Also, keep the very important PNA tele in mind. The GEFS has a slight +PNA of +0.3 on 2/19-21 and the 7 day has actually had a slight -PNA bias. So, after adjusting for this bias, it could end up near +0.5, which would actually be a decent +PNA. I'm mentioning this because a +PNA has been one of, if not THE, best teles as far as major SE snow/sleetstorms is concerned.

Here are the major KATL snow/sleet PNA data since 1950: bolded = El Nino:

2/26/1952: +1.4
2/15/1958: +1.2
3/11/1960: -0.3
1/9/1962: +0.7
2/17-8/1979: -0.1
1/12-14/1982: 0.0
3/24/1983: +0.7
1/22/1987: +0.7
1/7/1988: +0.7
1/18/1992: +1.2
3/13/1993: -0.2
1/2-3/2002: +1.2
3/1/2009: -0.8
2/12/2010: +0.7
1/9-10/2011: -0.3
2/12-13/2014: -1.1

- The above averaged +0.4
- All 7 El Nino storms had a +PNA and averaged +0.9

Some KATL honorable mentions: (not quite major) bolded = El Nino:
3/2/1980: +0.1
1/28/2014: +0.3
12/8-9/2017: +1.6
 

Myfrotho704_

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Im telling you, there’s middle ground between the Euro vs GFS/CMC/Ukie...I’d be feeling pretty good if I live between say Newberry and Oeangeburg SC..this is the scenario that tends to produce for those guys
Yeah, you may be on to something
And also it’s been interesting to watch the Gfs correct itself,went from holding back and now has corrected to that sheared wave in Utah 44FF4309-3985-4F36-B77A-75A137488BF2.gif
 
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GFS Vort maps aren’t even anything that would make you drool over. You don’t need that wave in the SW to kick at all. It just needs to spark the fire with that piece from the southern branch and not get squashed out front. Really not that many moving parts here if we’re being totally honest. Really good look here. Really good 09BCA669-C0D8-40E0-810F-B675C7125889.png
 

packfan98

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Well, I would think with the heavy rates the snow depth chart would be a little better than this. Looks like the temperatures bottom out at 34 during the event.
 
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