Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just stating the obvious: our shortwave is still 5-6 days away from approaching the front range of the Rockies, it's way too early to claim this storm is slipping away
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
The trend is with the energy out in the SW that will eventually make or break this system, honestly they weren't light years apart with that but minor differences on when/if any energy kicked out made the difference between a significant storm and nothing. So while looking at the surface map and seeing blue or no blue over one particular spot may have been "back and forth" the energy out west has been trending more and more to a cutoff that will not head east. You really have got to learn to look at more than just the surface map
Agreed that wave doesn't have to kick at all. The stuff over the lakes does have to be farther SW. You can easily get a couple of impulses in the STJ to move through with the energy trapped in the SW, you aren't going to get ---- with a N flow at 700mb like the Euro has
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Some people are approaching this system as if we're expecting some sort of miller A or classic setup. It isn't a classic setup. NW trend of precip doesn't really apply here. Neither does "we need the shortwave to kick so we get a gulf low".
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Whether or not the s/w actually fully emerges from the SW US doesn't really matter imo, you can still easily get an overrunning event w/ said wave getting squashed into Mexico (Jan 19-20 1992 for ex), the northern stream suppresses the storm more on this run
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well that's really not true because overrunning events are usually driven by modest large-scale warm air advection and isentropic upglide that's almost always under modeled because the vertical resolution of NWP models is insufficient to fully resolve it. See last week's storm in GA, TN, & SC as a prime example.
Yeah, I hear ya and trust me I'm not writing this off my no means... I just don't like the current trends with the upper levels and plus I'm being selfish, none of the overrunning events modeled have done much for me, dang it I need that energy to pop a coastal Lol
Jessy89
Member
I don’t see any trend one way or another. This just looks to me like a quick hit because it will be moving fast. Looks like some flakes and some areas may get 1-3 inches but Of course that could change
NorthGaWinter4
Member
I disagree. If there’s actually a storm it won’t be a short duration.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, overrunning events are almost always an "endurance race", while big coastals usually are a sprint
baroowoofr
Member
UKMET precip maps were kind of a compromise between the Euro and GFS at 12z:
Hey Webb I get we don't necessarily need that energy out west to kick east to have a storm but yesterday when it was further east the upper levels had more of a W/SW component allowing some moisture return, but with the energy holding back (and I know more NS dominant) those winds are W/NW thus dry.... is there no correlation between that energy being held back versus kicking out or is it all now NS dependent? If that makes sense.
With all the upgrades to Euro and GFS coupled with the lack of anything to track this winter. We have no basis to compare to for the Euro losing the storm or bring it back. Also the fact that the GFS has come thru on a storm or two. But we have no long range consistency or faith in the models to compare anything to.
Does anyone have soundings for KORF or KECG?
Euro has precip breaking out 125 miles south of other guidance and everybody dives head first off the cliff at D6. Lol “Back in my day” this was completely fine. The storm signal is still there and it’s still strong enough to be a threat. Even on the less than ideal Euro run. If I were in CAE I would be rooting for something in between the GFS and Euro.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's definitely more to it than that, the northern stream also matters here too. If the waves within the polar jet are slower and dig closer to the upper midwest instead of the Great Lakes, the return flow will be out of the W-SW & the ridge off the SE US will amplify regardless of the southern stream. There's also embedded sheared S/Ws within the southern branch of the jet ahead of the main disturbance that are nascent/hard to resolve especially this far out which will provide much of the impetus for precipitation breaking out. The wave actually emerging from the south-central Rockies matters more for generating a legit coastal, but for most of us in the SE US, a wave hanging back in the SW US with extremely sheared, fast moving, weak waves spitting out ahead of the SW US s/w is more than good enough to produce the solution most of us want if the longwave trough orientation is right.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I would be thrilled with that look even if we were only 2-3 days out. If the synoptic pattern remains largely the same, overrunning setups in the SE US are very notorious for ticking NWward & trending stronger all the way down to the last minute and busting high for precip (& snow if it's cold enough)
Aside from last week's winter storm, February 11, 2014 is another classic, recent example. Most of southern NC was forecast to see 1" maybe 2", ended up w/ nearly 4" at my house in Cumberland County and New Bern picked up 10"
Here's the 500mb vort map the morning this storm started. Shortwave hanging back over the SW US, northern stream wave digging into the Lakes & New England w/ deep layer westerly flow at 500mb. Hardly the most obvious winter storm look but it produced big time over parts of southern NC. Light-moderate snow fell all day, and it was all snow start to finish in Fayetteville.
Interesting to note the GFS has been digging the main trough more these past few runs 
Not gonna lie, that is beautiful.