Regardless of whether or not it pans out, I'd say that for a good 75%+ of winters there will not be this level of wintry threat just 5-7 days out for late Feb. So, keep that in mind that we're blessed just having this threat.
Also, keep the very important PNA tele in mind. The GEFS has a slight +PNA of +0.3 on 2/19-21 and the 7 day has actually had a slight -PNA bias. So, after adjusting for this bias, it could end up near +0.5, which would actually be a decent +PNA. I'm mentioning this because a +PNA has been one of, if not THE, best teles as far as major SE snow/sleetstorms is concerned.
Here are the major KATL snow/sleet PNA data since 1950: bolded = El Nino:
2/26/1952: +1.4
2/15/1958: +1.2
3/11/1960: -0.3
1/9/1962: +0.7
2/17-8/1979: -0.1
1/12-14/1982: 0.0
3/24/1983: +0.7
1/22/1987: +0.7
1/7/1988: +0.7
1/18/1992: +1.2
3/13/1993: -0.2
1/2-3/2002: +1.2
3/1/2009: -0.8
2/12/2010: +0.7
1/9-10/2011: -0.3
2/12-13/2014: -1.1
- The above averaged +0.4
- All 7 El Nino storms had a +PNA and averaged +0.9
Some KATL honorable mentions: (not quite major) bolded = El Nino:
3/2/1980: +0.1
1/28/2014: +0.3
12/8-9/2017: +1.6
Also, keep the very important PNA tele in mind. The GEFS has a slight +PNA of +0.3 on 2/19-21 and the 7 day has actually had a slight -PNA bias. So, after adjusting for this bias, it could end up near +0.5, which would actually be a decent +PNA. I'm mentioning this because a +PNA has been one of, if not THE, best teles as far as major SE snow/sleetstorms is concerned.
Here are the major KATL snow/sleet PNA data since 1950: bolded = El Nino:
2/26/1952: +1.4
2/15/1958: +1.2
3/11/1960: -0.3
1/9/1962: +0.7
2/17-8/1979: -0.1
1/12-14/1982: 0.0
3/24/1983: +0.7
1/22/1987: +0.7
1/7/1988: +0.7
1/18/1992: +1.2
3/13/1993: -0.2
1/2-3/2002: +1.2
3/1/2009: -0.8
2/12/2010: +0.7
1/9-10/2011: -0.3
2/12-13/2014: -1.1
- The above averaged +0.4
- All 7 El Nino storms had a +PNA and averaged +0.9
Some KATL honorable mentions: (not quite major) bolded = El Nino:
3/2/1980: +0.1
1/28/2014: +0.3
12/8-9/2017: +1.6
