ForsythSnow
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
whatalife
Moderator
The mean is skewed by one or two big dogs. A lot of blanks.
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Definitely ticked north with the precip on the gefs, kinda giving me flashbacks to February 11th, 2014 
at this point I’m not to worried about ptype, just how much QPF
at this point I’m not to worried about ptype, just how much QPF
baroowoofr
Member
Can’t post a gif or pic right now but the UKMET was a tick north with an initial wave that rides the front after the first mid week system comes through. Not much in the way of snow, but precip makes it as far as western NC
ATLwxfan
Member
Maybe I’m wrong but saying things like “one more bad run and I’m throwing in the towel” don’t belong here but maybe in the banter thread. If you want to throw in the towel the best way would be to just not participate in this thread. Sorry to be off topic. Carry on.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Nice improvement on the GFS and GEFS that run for NC. Right now we are still in the game.
avlsnow
Member
That’s a fair point, I’ll keep it in mind.
Exactly. Not to mention we literally do this year after year, after year. Not once have I seen a storm be consistently modeled, every run, 7-10 days out. We always lose the storm, or temps become an issue, etcetera. It's not really until 3-5 days out, that we have a better understanding of said storm.
yep
BHS1975
Member
Yeah that storm way over-performed. I remember how quick it moved in.
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Jessy89
Member
The placement of the high. And the moisture has to be in the right position at the right time. Right now it’s not looking like we thread the needle. But we still need to monitor it. There’s always dynamics that can come into play wet bulbing. I can see people seeing flakes but not have a significant event
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Down here around this neck of the woods, the big ones tend to show up and have some kind of major support for consecutive runs, many days out. We were never really in a situation where moisture wouldn't likely make it up this way in the Deep South... it's just the temperatures don't want to work out. There was some ensemble support of both major Global modeling.. but there was never that big hint that dominated the ensemble members through here.
I had gotten excited for areas like Augusta, CAE, ATL etc because of a couple runs that of course, are showing warmer now, even with moisture. Should have held my horses a bit without 40/50+ of the eps showing something.
I had gotten excited for areas like Augusta, CAE, ATL etc because of a couple runs that of course, are showing warmer now, even with moisture. Should have held my horses a bit without 40/50+ of the eps showing something.
NoSnowATL
Member
Didn’t that storm have a ton more cold air though? This one looks a lot different. I might be wrong.
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BHS1975
Member
Yeah it stuck and covered the road within a half hour of starting.
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Storm5
Member
12z euro is a no go
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ajr
Member
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JLL1973
Member
This threat is dead for my area. On to the next one
BHS1975
Member
Stormlover
Member
How many times have you said that over the years, then you get it? Dont be so negative.
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Cadi40
Member
Well we all knew where this was going, I don’t know if it’s coming back but I’d love to be proved wrong.
Nerman
Member
This is a better look earlier out than I had for the 3 inches of snow I got last week. I'll definitely take it at this point. The 850's slide in right after this frame.
If the euro had enough precip thrown up into the upstate on that run it was going to be close. 925’s were a touch warm but 850’s were good and temps were in the mid 30’s with dew points in the mid 20’s
I like this map. We just need a stronger wave out over AL, and we'll be in business. Hard to believe the models have the strength and orientation of all of the energy modeled perfectly at this range. Would also help to have some snow cover up north. That's a detriment here.
Nerman
Member
These models don't know where that's going to go in 5 days. If I was placing money on it I'd wager that Chattanooga should get ready for snow.
tennessee storm
Member
Yea the euro is driving the finish nails in the coffin.
And this is exactly what I am alluding to. The moisture , may get to us.. but the temperatures outside NC and NE GA kinda suck regardless. I'd probably draw a line from about Newberry North into Upstate/Upper 3rd of SC as the cutoff line at this point. Heavier banding and good rates will handle the column for you in that situation.. most likely that far North.
Not one EPS member has the storm. The mean has some overrunning going on but no snowfall accums.
Whether it’s happening now or not I have seen many time before when we get actual winter storms that the models lose the signal and then pick it back up in the short range so I wouldn’t be too worried right now .. I would say let it cook all weekend and we will see what we have Monday- Tuesday and if it’s still looking ugly then we can ease up on the hope
Certainly, we’ve seen many a big storm here get lost around this range on the modeling and the come back closer in. However, we’ve seen many more times where the models lose a big storm and never bring them back. The good thing is that at least this storm isn’t cutting, so I think there’s still some reason to hope. Obviously, our chances are dwindling, though, and I’d like to see the models try to bring something back sooner than later.
Also, there’s quite a bit of moisture still showing up on the modeling, so it’s not like the storm went completely poof. It would be nice if at least one of the 12z globals showed something wintry, though, but as far as I can tell every single one is shooting blanks.
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GEFS hasn’t given up entirely
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The models are still going back and forth. They have not been consistent at all. Sometimes the GFS has something, sometime it doesn't. Sometimes the Euro has something, sometimes it doesn't. They have not been consistent one way or the other with this threat. Yeah, if they both start consistently showing nothing the next day or two, then folks are most likely out of the game, and we don't get the win with getting a winter storm. But right now it is still too soon to tell, and we still have a shot to pull out a win. It could go either way at this point in the game.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Yep, I’ve said the same thing. I think we have to wait until the monster low in the North Atlantic moves into Europe and weakens some Monday before we get a much better picture. And where is our energy out west, probably not even over land yet.
Flo
Member
All your posts are literally the same
I think the chances for this "event" are slowly fading. I know there is time and little changes would make a bigger difference, but now we are fighting the colder temps working there way in/down. I think if we had some heavier QPF, that would help for sure, but I don't know if we will see that.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I agree. This one feels like it's not coming back. Call me a doubter all you want, but I think it's gone. Sure the moisture can trend north, but it's going to be 36 and rain.
No not really. Euro had it for 1 day(2 cycles). GFS one day (4 cycles). Only consistency overall has always been no snow!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The last GEFS had snow for NC and SC.