Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Ollie Williams]

I’ll have what the GFS is having for dinner. However! At this lead time I’m not sure it’s good to be in the bullseye..

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs is wonky, rain where soundings support SN

 

[Spurs up]

I’ll have what the GFS is having for dinner. However! At this lead time I’m not sure it’s good to be in the bullseye..

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

yea im not sure i like being directly in the bullseye. it sho is purty though

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS Vort maps aren’t even anything that would make you drool over. You don’t need that wave in the SW to kick at all. It just needs to spark the fire with that piece from the southern branch and not get squashed out front. Really not that many moving parts here if we’re being totally honest. Really good look here. Really good

 

[pcbjr]

If only the track were another 50 miles north...

Likely gonna get bumped on this, but if only 250 to 300 south ... I still want snow down here, 6", only and just to keep all the crazy people indoors for a couple days ...

 

[Meteorologist1999]

yea im not sure i like being directly in the bullseye. it sho is purty though

The reason it might be is good because it will shift south for the next several runs and correct NW inside 96hr, to these same locations.

 

[Ollie Williams]

P-type

 

[Jessy89]

I do still expect a nw trend


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[packfan98]

Well, I would think with the heavy rates the snow depth chart would be a little better than this. Looks like the temperatures bottom out at 34 during the event.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

P-type
View attachment 34360

Nice little hit of freezing drizzle at the end to put a glaze on it!

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Well, I would think with the heavy rates the snow depth chart would be a little better than this. Looks like the temperatures bottom out at 34 during the event.

Lol so it thinks it'll snow 5-9 inches in places(rates of 1-2 inch per hour at some points), but only accumulate an inch at most? Even I got an inch of accumulation this past event with borderline temperatures and I couldn't have gotten more than 1.5-2 inches of snowfall(with only 25 minutes of heavy snow).

 

[GaSnowhound]

Welp...happy hour GFS delivers once again....historic Deep Southeast storm.

Yes sir! We may finally have a legit chance east of the Atl (I-20). 138 is a thing of beauty!

 

[superjames1992]

Well, I would think with the heavy rates the snow depth chart would be a little better than this. Looks like the temperatures bottom out at 34 during the event.

I don’t think snow depth maps handle these situations well.

Anyways, Happy Hour GFS delivers.

 

[GaSnowhound]

I’m no met and understand this my not be the usual setup but I’ll take suppression rt now too. May eat my words but im

View attachment 34355

yeah...I don’t like seeing that 5.5” rt over my house at this time. GFS needs to go easy on me......I’d settle for a fringe inch and being on N side for a cpl more runs. I firmly expect a N shift w precip field. Climb and history....

 

[SD]

She's a beaut clark

 

[GaWx]

More climo to consider:

Here are the dates for which I've found a 3.5" plus official ATL snow and/or 1.5”+ sleet event since 3/1876 (39 of them or one every 3.5 years)(I counted only Jan 12 of the 1/12-14/1982 event and Feb 15 of the 2/12-15/1885 event for this second table) :


DEC: 2, 3-6, 11-13, 29

JAN: 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 23, 26, 28, 29-30

FEB: 10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 12-13, 14-15, 15, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26

MAR: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24

Note the 9 bolded storms, which are within 6 days of Feb 20th. That is almost 1/4 of the storms just within days of 2/20! So, the point is that Feb 20th is in the midst of one of the most climo favored periods at ATL for a major snow or sleet, the last half of Feb.

 

[whatalife]

Keep in mind the NW trend that typically happens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jon]

GFS Vort maps aren’t even anything that would make you drool over. You don’t need that wave in the SW to kick at all. It just needs to spark the fire with that piece from the southern branch and not get squashed out front. Really not that many moving parts here if we’re being totally honest. Really good look here. Really good View attachment 34358

You don’t need the SW ULL at all that’s true. But we never needed it, unless it was gonna kick and link with cold it’s worthless.

But what creates the SW ULL eventually means that the NS will be too flat and less elongated and “tip heavy” meaning it would have less of a chance to dig and go neutral, creating a bigger system.

Our best bet now, because of the SW ULL, is a light system... unless for some reason the modeling is missing out on some energy we have yet to see and I doubt it.

Edit: I will say the GFS is trending nicely with the main northern stream confluence just west of the lakes. This is a new and helpful development

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[packfan98]

GEFS Steady as she goes.

 

[Broken024]

GEFS Steady as she goes.

This looks way better than 12z i think?