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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

And the 12Z EPS still has some members with wave #2..so don't forget about that:

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At this stage I'm okay with the Euro being a bit suppressed/dry because we have seen many times this winter where the SER flexes as we are inside 96 hours and that could very well happen again. Right now the main thing we want to see is a continued signal and solid or increasing ensemble support. The details will become clearer once we are inside 96 hours and start to enter the NAM range and are closer to verification.
 
I really urge everyone to watch Brad. P's VLOG. He pretty much hits the nail on the head. I know all of us want snow, but there is so much that can go wrong or right. It's hard not to get excited given the pattern, though. Hopefully, we ALL can reel this one in!
 
I like that the euro is cold. That’s a good sign to me. Our area usually does best for systems that look suppressed this time in the game. Will be anxious to see the EPS members in a bit.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I would be thrilled with that look even if we were only 2-3 days out. If the synoptic pattern remains largely the same, overrunning setups in the SE US are very notorious for ticking NWward & trending stronger all the way down to the last minute and busting high for precip (& snow if it's cold enough)

Aside from last week's winter storm, February 11, 2014 is another classic, recent example. Most of southern NC was forecast to see 1" maybe 2", ended up w/ nearly 4" at my house in Cumberland County and New Bern picked up 10"



View attachment 34321

View attachment 34322


Here's the 500mb vort map the morning this storm started. Shortwave hanging back over the SW US, northern stream wave digging into the Lakes & New England w/ deep layer westerly flow at 500mb. Hardly the most obvious winter storm look but it produced big time over parts of southern NC. Light-moderate snow fell all day, and it was all snow start to finish in Fayetteville.


View attachment 34324
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That ended up being a great pre event for a lot of people before the big one.
 
Parker said:
I like that the euro is cold. That’s a good sign to me. Our area usually does best for systems that look suppressed this time in the game. Will be anxious to see the EPS members in a bit.
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Well this is not the 500 mb. This is headed in the wrong direction as far as the EPS is concerned.


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whatalife said:
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My money is on 26. Widespread 2-4+ in GA/SC/SENC. Sharp cutoff to the north.

This setup doesn’t necessarily favor my area but I’m going down with the ship on my prediction. Because who really cares ??‍♂️
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My money is on 26. Widespread 2-4+ in GA/SC/SENC. Sharp cutoff to the north.

This setup doesn’t necessarily favor my area but I’m going down with the ship on my prediction. Because who really cares
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I’ll take e8 but honestly I expected more members. But ok we still in the game at least and it’s not even half time


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We see this a lot. The Euro will bite on something for a couple runs, and drop it in the longer range. The GFS will begin to pick up it shortly after and not let go, while the Euro continues to never bring it back.

In the situation above, the Euro wins out the majority of the time.

On the flip side, the EPS having things suppressed is not a bad look. In my experience, for the Deep South, the bigger ones get picked up at a good lead time, at least on ensembles. They'll waffle back and forth with the Northern extent of the moisture, but will eventually start to show a better solution as we get closer.

In my opinion, if the GFS continues to do what it's done historically (and I have no idea with the FV3 upgrade), we may start to see the moisture shunted to the South over the next few days only to be brought back up. But remember, H5 maps are much more reliable from the Euro, and the bias of holding energy back in the Southwest may or may not be a factor anymore considering the upgrades it has undergone.

Also, the UKMET tries to amplify waves too strongly in the Southeast sector, at least historically.

Edit: Just had a look at the EPS members, and that looks like crap versus yesterday. Well darn.
 
There is a whining & complaint thread here:

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-whamby-2020-a-new-decade.669/unread

And there is another banter thread here:

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2020-banter-thread.668/unread

We are not going to do the whole "why is this thread made" or the whole "omg, its over" thing over here. Do it in one of those two threads linked above. I've asked the mods to delete any whining and complaint posts in here with no reasons given.

We aren't trying to be Nazi admins or mods, but keeping this thread clean, for people to find information is very important. Most members do not care to see doom and gloom posts, and reasoning why there's even a thread to begin with. They want scientific discussion and questions.

Thanks.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like the Euro with the all or nothing panels, too. Two big dogs for NC, and the rest virtually nothing.
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These types of systems are typically highly variable on ensembles since little differences in the 5h energy, position and strength bring with them massive changes in regards to the precip and northward extent of it.
 
The EPS panels do show that things look worse since yesterday, but things aren't quite as suppressed as the snow panels alone show. Yes, the system is more suppressed, but the following gifs are each EPS member centered on day 6 and show that more moisture gets north on more members than it looks like at first glance.







Like others have said, suppression is probably better at this range than riding the rain snow line.
 
At this range, this is about as good as it gets from RAH (they're conservative):

The aforementioned cold front/frontal zone is expected to settle to the south of the area on Wednesday into Thursday as cold high pressure builds into the area. The will allow for high temps to be in the 40s late week, with low temps possibly in the 20s by Friday morning. With regard to chances for precip, additional s/w energy is expected to dive south/southeastward out of the upper Midwest and potentially drawing the stalled front to the south back northward and allowing for chances for precip Wednesday into Thursday, with dry weather expected again by Friday. The latest ECMWF keeps central NC dry (with any precip to the south), while the GFS spreads precip into our area. If precip does spread back into our area, we could see a threat for some wintry precip, with possibly even some snow across our area (even southern locations). Thus, there remains a lot of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast, but will keep the precip all liquid in the forecast for now and lower temps some. Stay tuned. &&
 
Regardless of whether or not it pans out, I'd say that for a good 75%+ of winters there will not be this level of wintry threat just 5-7 days out for late Feb. So, keep that in mind that we're blessed just having this threat.

Also, keep the very important PNA tele in mind. The GEFS has a slight +PNA of +0.3 on 2/19-21 and the 7 day has actually had a slight -PNA bias. So, after adjusting for this bias, it could end up near +0.5, which would actually be a decent +PNA. I'm mentioning this because a +PNA has been one of, if not THE, best teles as far as major SE snow/sleetstorms is concerned.

Here are the major KATL snow/sleet PNA data since 1950: bolded = El Nino:

2/26/1952: +1.4
2/15/1958: +1.2
3/11/1960: -0.3
1/9/1962: +0.7
2/17-8/1979: -0.1
1/12-14/1982: 0.0
3/24/1983: +0.7
1/22/1987: +0.7
1/7/1988: +0.7
1/18/1992: +1.2
3/13/1993: -0.2
1/2-3/2002: +1.2
3/1/2009: -0.8
2/12/2010: +0.7
1/9-10/2011: -0.3
2/12-13/2014: -1.1

- The above averaged +0.4
- All 7 El Nino storms had a +PNA and averaged +0.9

Some KATL honorable mentions: (not quite major) bolded = El Nino:
3/2/1980: +0.1
1/28/2014: +0.3
12/8-9/2017: +1.6
 
The main trough itself continues to dig more into the Rockies, even tho we’ve kinda lost that nice trailing wave, this may be a good thing in this instance BC83DA9B-2627-47F7-A63D-A2903E4518EA.gif
 
Im telling you, there’s middle ground between the Euro vs GFS/CMC/Ukie...I’d be feeling pretty good if I live between say Newberry and Orangeburg SC..this is the scenario that tends to produce for those guys
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Im telling you, there’s middle ground between the Euro vs GFS/CMC/Ukie...I’d be feeling pretty good if I live between say Newberry and Oeangeburg SC..this is the scenario that tends to produce for those guys
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Yeah, you may be on to something
And also it’s been interesting to watch the Gfs correct itself,went from holding back and now has corrected to that sheared wave in Utah 44FF4309-3985-4F36-B77A-75A137488BF2.gif
 
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