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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Regardless of whether or not it pans out, I'd say that for a good 75%+ of winters there will not be this level of wintry threat just 5-7 days out for late Feb. So, keep that in mind that we're blessed just having this threat.

Also, keep the very important PNA tele in mind. The GEFS has a slight +PNA of +0.3 on 2/19-21 and the 7 day has actually had a slight -PNA bias. So, after adjusting for this bias, it could end up near +0.5, which would actually be a decent +PNA. I'm mentioning this because a +PNA has been one of, if not THE, best teles as far as major SE snow/sleetstorms is concerned.

Here are the major KATL snow/sleet PNA data since 1950: bolded = El Nino:

2/26/1952: +1.4
2/15/1958: +1.2
3/11/1960: -0.3
1/9/1962: +0.7
2/17-8/1979: -0.1
1/12-14/1982: 0.0
3/24/1983: +0.7
1/22/1987: +0.7
1/7/1988: +0.7
1/18/1992: +1.2
3/13/1993: -0.2
1/2-3/2002: +1.2
3/1/2009: -0.8
2/12/2010: +0.7
1/9-10/2011: -0.3
2/12-13/2014: -1.1

- The above averaged +0.4
- All 7 El Nino storms had a +PNA and averaged +0.9

Some KATL honorable mentions: (not quite major) bolded = El Nino:
3/2/1980: +0.1
1/28/2014: +0.3
12/8-9/2017: +1.6
 
The main trough itself continues to dig more into the Rockies, even tho we’ve kinda lost that nice trailing wave, this may be a good thing in this instance BC83DA9B-2627-47F7-A63D-A2903E4518EA.gif
 
Im telling you, there’s middle ground between the Euro vs GFS/CMC/Ukie...I’d be feeling pretty good if I live between say Newberry and Orangeburg SC..this is the scenario that tends to produce for those guys
 
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A thing of beauty. I wouldn't mind it verifying.
sn10_acc.us_se.png
 
Im telling you, there’s middle ground between the Euro vs GFS/CMC/Ukie...I’d be feeling pretty good if I live between say Newberry and Oeangeburg SC..this is the scenario that tends to produce for those guys

Yeah, you may be on to something
And also it’s been interesting to watch the Gfs correct itself,went from holding back and now has corrected to that sheared wave in Utah 44FF4309-3985-4F36-B77A-75A137488BF2.gif
 
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