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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Jessy89 said:
Woah can’t wait to see some of the members


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It's a 2 member skew and worse for NC, but better for GA and upstate SC
GEFSSE_prec_snens_144.png
 
Can’t post a gif or pic right now but the UKMET was a tick north with an initial wave that rides the front after the first mid week system comes through. Not much in the way of snow, but precip makes it as far as western NC
 
Maybe I’m wrong but saying things like “one more bad run and I’m throwing in the towel” don’t belong here but maybe in the banter thread. If you want to throw in the towel the best way would be to just not participate in this thread. Sorry to be off topic. Carry on.


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Nice improvement on the GFS and GEFS that run for NC. Right now we are still in the game.
 
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ATLwxfan said:
Maybe I’m wrong but saying things like “one more bad run and I’m throwing in the towel” don’t belong here but maybe in the banter thread. If you want to throw in the towel the best way would be to just not participate in this thread. Sorry to be off topic. Carry on.


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That’s a fair point, I’ll keep it in mind.
 
Meh, I think at this point, even with moisture, the Midlands of SC will likely be rain.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Maybe I’m wrong but saying things like “one more bad run and I’m throwing in the towel” don’t belong here but maybe in the banter thread. If you want to throw in the towel the best way would be to just not participate in this thread. Sorry to be off topic. Carry on.


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Exactly. Not to mention we literally do this year after year, after year. Not once have I seen a storm be consistently modeled, every run, 7-10 days out. We always lose the storm, or temps become an issue, etcetera. It's not really until 3-5 days out, that we have a better understanding of said storm.
 
The placement of the high. And the moisture has to be in the right position at the right time. Right now it’s not looking like we thread the needle. But we still need to monitor it. There’s always dynamics that can come into play wet bulbing. I can see people seeing flakes but not have a significant event


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Down here around this neck of the woods, the big ones tend to show up and have some kind of major support for consecutive runs, many days out. We were never really in a situation where moisture wouldn't likely make it up this way in the Deep South... it's just the temperatures don't want to work out. There was some ensemble support of both major Global modeling.. but there was never that big hint that dominated the ensemble members through here.

I had gotten excited for areas like Augusta, CAE, ATL etc because of a couple runs that of course, are showing warmer now, even with moisture. Should have held my horses a bit without 40/50+ of the eps showing something.
 
This is sad. I'm not feeling it today but maybe tonight can trend better.
 
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