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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

If the euro had enough precip thrown up into the upstate on that run it was going to be close. 925’s were a touch warm but 850’s were good and temps were in the mid 30’s with dew points in the mid 20’s
 
Nerman said:
This is a better look earlier out than I had for the 3 inches of snow I got last week. I'll definitely take it at this point. The 850's slide in right after this frame.
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I like this map. We just need a stronger wave out over AL, and we'll be in business. Hard to believe the models have the strength and orientation of all of the energy modeled perfectly at this range. Would also help to have some snow cover up north. That's a detriment here.
 
Rain Cold said:
I like this map. We just need a stronger wave out over AL, and we'll be in business. Hard to believe the models have the strength and orientation of all of the energy modeled perfectly at this range. Would also help to have some snow cover up north. That's a detriment here.
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These models don't know where that's going to go in 5 days. If I was placing money on it I'd wager that Chattanooga should get ready for snow.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If the euro had enough precip thrown up into the upstate on that run it was going to be close. 925’s were a touch warm but 850’s were good and temps were in the mid 30’s with dew points in the mid 20’s
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And this is exactly what I am alluding to. The moisture , may get to us.. but the temperatures outside NC and NE GA kinda suck regardless. I'd probably draw a line from about Newberry North into Upstate/Upper 3rd of SC as the cutoff line at this point. Heavier banding and good rates will handle the column for you in that situation.. most likely that far North.
 
Whether it’s happening now or not I have seen many time before when we get actual winter storms that the models lose the signal and then pick it back up in the short range so I wouldn’t be too worried right now .. I would say let it cook all weekend and we will see what we have Monday- Tuesday and if it’s still looking ugly then we can ease up on the hope
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Whether it’s happening now or not I have seen many time before when we get actual winter storms that the models lose the signal and then pick it back up in the short range so I wouldn’t be too worried right now .. I would say let it cook all weekend and we will see what we have Monday- Tuesday and if it’s still looking ugly then we can ease up on the hope
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Certainly, we’ve seen many a big storm here get lost around this range on the modeling and the come back closer in. However, we’ve seen many more times where the models lose a big storm and never bring them back. The good thing is that at least this storm isn’t cutting, so I think there’s still some reason to hope. Obviously, our chances are dwindling, though, and I’d like to see the models try to bring something back sooner than later.

Also, there’s quite a bit of moisture still showing up on the modeling, so it’s not like the storm went completely poof. It would be nice if at least one of the 12z globals showed something wintry, though, but as far as I can tell every single one is shooting blanks.
 
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The models are still going back and forth. They have not been consistent at all. Sometimes the GFS has something, sometime it doesn't. Sometimes the Euro has something, sometimes it doesn't. They have not been consistent one way or the other with this threat. Yeah, if they both start consistently showing nothing the next day or two, then folks are most likely out of the game, and we don't get the win with getting a winter storm. But right now it is still too soon to tell, and we still have a shot to pull out a win. It could go either way at this point in the game.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Whether it’s happening now or not I have seen many time before when we get actual winter storms that the models lose the signal and then pick it back up in the short range so I wouldn’t be too worried right now .. I would say let it cook all weekend and we will see what we have Monday- Tuesday and if it’s still looking ugly then we can ease up on the hope
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Yep, I’ve said the same thing. I think we have to wait until the monster low in the North Atlantic moves into Europe and weakens some Monday before we get a much better picture. And where is our energy out west, probably not even over land yet.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The models are still going back and forth. They have not been consistent at all. Sometimes the GFS has something, sometime it doesn't. Sometimes the Euro has something, sometimes it doesn't. They have not been consistent one way or the other with this threat. Yeah, if they both start consistently showing nothing the next day or two, then folks are most likely out of the game, and we don't get the win with getting a winter storm. But right now it is still too soon to tell, and we still have a shot to pull out a win. It could go either way at this point in the game.
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All your posts are literally the same
 
I think the chances for this "event" are slowly fading. I know there is time and little changes would make a bigger difference, but now we are fighting the colder temps working there way in/down. I think if we had some heavier QPF, that would help for sure, but I don't know if we will see that.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think the chances for this "event" are slowly fading. I know there is time and little changes would make a bigger difference, but now we are fighting the colder temps working there way in/down. I think if we had some heavier QPF, that would help for sure, but I don't know if we will see that.
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I agree. This one feels like it's not coming back. Call me a doubter all you want, but I think it's gone. Sure the moisture can trend north, but it's going to be 36 and rain.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The models are still going back and forth. They have not been consistent at all. Sometimes the GFS has something, sometime it doesn't. Sometimes the Euro has something, sometimes it doesn't. They have not been consistent one way or the other with this threat. Yeah, if they both start consistently showing nothing the next day or two, then folks are most likely out of the game, and we don't get the win with getting a winter storm. But right now it is still too soon to tell, and we still have a shot to pull out a win. It could go either way at this point in the game.
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No not really. Euro had it for 1 day(2 cycles). GFS one day (4 cycles). Only consistency overall has always been no snow!
 
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