14 members now are getting north Georgia back in play. Slowly but surely. Reminds me of last weekend when we were only supposed to get a dusting the up to the night before the event and we got a little over 3 inches in Cherokee county Georgia.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Was just thinking about that. We didn't get much here in Marietta but I drove up 575 to Canton to see the snow.
The models trended colder and juicier as we got within 72 hours. If that happens with this system, it could be pretty impactful. Different from last weekend bc 1) that was a weekend and 2) this one has more precip.
IMO we have to get that high (or the effects From it) down into the SE quicker. It’s trying
Jessy89
Member
Eastern NC north eastern South Carolina this is trending into a winter storm. Plenty of moisture available when the cold air gets there
NE ga upstate sc mountains nc snow may fall but likely a glacé and blow. Perhaps a dusting to a couple inches in high elevations.
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Here’s what I think rn, first call map, note this isn’t a accumulation map but more of a map of certainty/uncertainty and probability, wayyy to early to focus on accumulation, but here it is, my 2nd ugly map of the winter 
18z Euro looks like it will be slightly better. It seems as if, 06/18z runs have better trends and 12z/00z have worse.
More amped this run, and this gif decided to be blurry lol 
much further north this run
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Interesting to watch models trend better with that batch of moisture in KS/ PH of TX/OK
You're 100% right and that also goes for 850s. But up in NC it is still cold enough and the heavier qpf is resulting in more snow.
We'll have to see from Ollie or whomever posts where the under 0.5" amounts are located.
Highest EPS mean and members since 18z yesterday.
Can kinda see that weak “coastal” signal
Member 15 back at it again... sheesh
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
It has to be a bad sign if the op models are showing nothing right? Seems like we are close enough to follow them.
It's still a good idea to follow ensemble members at this range. Operational runs can lag a bit before the "trend" begins in the 36-72 hours.
Edit. Operationals are important, but looking at the 500mb maps of the euro ensemble mean, there's something in the southern stream that pokes out that can be quite a forecast challenge.
Jessy89
Member
So speaking to my upstate sc folks. And maybe NE Georgia to. We can keep watching this sure. But I believe we seen enough. This is going to be mostly rain can’t rule out token flakes but this will not be a winter storm for us. As for Eastern NC and NE Sc a winter storm is possible and I’m hoping people that hadn’t had snow in a while gets some.
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I like what ensembles show rn given the fact that these types of setups have more expansive precip sheilds than modeled
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This may actually be one of those rare times when all 100 counties in NC record some snow. That doesn't happen often.
Either a significant winter storm or nothing.. seems to have been the one consistent over the last few days with the ens
NCCWOP9077
Member
Certainly hope more members come on board to build confidence. The highest amount of members for me has been around 22 here in the NC coastal plain.
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Same here, might have been 23 at one point, looks like about 18 on the 18z but again I'd feel better if the op run started to come on board. But with that said, I actually like where we sit with this one, I don't think moisture will be an issue and we might be just far enough north to feel the effects of that HP...... a late blooming coastal wouldn't hurt either, am I asking for too much. Lol
Mr. Golf
Member
This is my two cents. The hp is modeled way too high and mainly pna driven and not epo driven. Friday's hp was epo driven. I also would be shocked not to see more precipitation further north in future runs.
Gotta love the SE ridge trending stronger in the short range 
NAM is more amped this run, looks pretty different from last run 
Cary_Snow95
Member
Interesting
If this would of keep going, this would have been a NC/upstate of SC paste bomb, that frontogenic band signal is a red flag by the NAM, and not the bad red flag 
Goodness I want to be able to believe the NAM.... a good 'ol fashion NAMing is our future
I know it's the lr NAM and many will no doubt talk about how the NAM is notorious for over amping with high precip amounts but it really hasn't been that way recently (I believe it too had an upgrade at some point and has actually shown less precip then it usual over juiced self).
I know it's the lr NAM and many will no doubt talk about how the NAM is notorious for over amping with high precip amounts but it really hasn't been that way recently (I believe it too had an upgrade at some point and has actually shown less precip then it usual over juiced self).
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The NAM is really good looking tempwise for N GA aside from a slight pocket of warmth aloft at that time frame especially compared to the the GFS at the exact time. Just look at the DPs plunging before the precip!
iGrey_X
Member
The 0Z run of the NAM makes my 1st prediction forecast seem like a real possibility. I agree that I think the High pressure will likely be around 1040-1044 as 1050’s just don’t happen. But with that running in tandem with the moisture and we know there is always more moisture and the NW trend always happens, I think this is a good initial prediction. I think the upstate over to NE SC and the coastal plain of NC could end up being the sweet spot due to some CAD and level of moisture. We will see and I’ll update this map more tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM is a very good model. I would be pretty excited if I lived in NC rn.
I mentioned it’s H5 amped bias a few times, lol I’m just saying what it shows vs past setups with that fronto band, NAM picks those up well
Jessy89
Member
Temperature dependent meaning temps may not support snow
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The Nam actually looks kind of like a more amped version of the GFS.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The NAM called the warning shots the other models didn't pick up on last time until the end, so if it's consistent, run with it.
I think if there is going to be snow, it'll include N GA too, but not go as far north as your map has.
iGrey_X
Member
Meaning it’s still in the air from a temperature standpoint but slight adjustments either way means either some wintery mix of rain and snow or a good snow storm possible. Nothing is likely at all in this range. We’re between 84-96 hours away and that’s way too much time for things to change.
Something in between makes sense, unless the NAM is really on to something, even in between that may be enough