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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

It will probably continue to trend north I think. But I’m leaning towards rain for most. If mountains can get moisture it may snow there.


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Another bad run by the gfs for me... Let’s see what the euro has, but if it’s another bad run then I think I’m ready to throw the towel on this one.
 
bouncycorn said:
Latest GFS is very interesting in bringing the precip in later. This is something i'd love to see in subsequent runs.
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If we can get the moisture in Thursday night into Friday. That might work


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avlsnow said:
Another bad run by the gfs... Let’s see what the euro has, but if it’s another bad run then I think I’m ready to throw the towel on this one.
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No reason to throw any towels on this for awhile. This has an opportunity to change up to the last second. Just the kind of set up this is.
 
Have to remember, cold is usually overmodeled out in time, with the exception of CAD. The GFS brought the moisture back north. But guess what looks like an issue now. The other day, there was plenty of blue showing up. Maybe if rates are better, that will help.
 
Jessy89 said:
Moisture is improved tick north no doubt. But temps is the issue


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Temps won't be as much of an issue if we can get good rates into areas like NC. For areas in SC and GA it may be more of an issue for sure. Right now we just need the precipitation in here and can focus in on p-type as we get into NAM range.
 
One thing that we do have on our side that happens with 95% of any winter storm possibility is it always starts out great in that day 7-10 range, it flips to borderline awful around day 5-8 before slowly coming back around day 3-5. Not saying that’ll happen here because obviously every storm is different but all it takes is 1 or 2 tweaks to the NS and the energy coming out of the southwest and this could easily go back to being an I85 and I20 special from Georgia through the Carolinas.
 
Now we’re getting favorable moisture trends with the southern stream wave training over the right general area but we’re losing our trough out front. It’s not digging like it was a few days ago. I think the southern branch wave is looking better because the trough needed for adequate cold air supply is getting worse. Just some thoughts
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Now we’re getting favorable moisture trends with the southern stream wave training over the right general area but we’re losing our trough out front. It’s not digging like it was a few days ago. I think the southern branch wave is looking better because the trough needed for adequate cold air supply is getting worse. Just some thoughts
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Yeah, these troughs in SE Canada we get with some setups are very important as a cold air source C973AC28-0870-476D-A012-6017D7EFAC84.gif
 
The 12z GEFS mean says don’t give up just yet.

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