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Brick Tamland
Guest
It sure did.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
It sure did.
Makeitsnow
Member
I think the models are probably blowing it over nc...soundings certainly show a pretty cold profile where decent precip probably overcomes the shallow warm surface layer. Wetbulb zero heights are at or below 950mb in nc by 12z to 15z...even if surface is 40 it would changeover.
Shaggy
Member
Maybe we get a PGV special to actually work this time. With the high position and strength I am having doubts about the warmer solutions but that could be the weenie in me.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I think Raleigh eastward is golden right now. But it will probably come further NW as usual.
Or, I'm hoping for a more expansive precip field. More amped and that could hurt folks down east and maybe even us.
ATLwxfan
Member
We will look back on this and see that the Canadian handled this event the best. It would not be the first time it has outperformed its two more famous counterparts.
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LovingGulfLows
Member
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CMC is interesting for N. GA in that it seems to bring a bit more moisture over the area as an upper level shortwave associated with the swinging trough moves over. You can sort of see the same thing on the GFS at hour 114, though the energy isn't as strong. Perhaps, it's something to keep an eye on as we move closer to the event.
Hey man, you've got to start putting all the "in my back yard" posts in the other threads.
snowlover91
Member
And just like this the CMC today popped a nice low off the coast with a big snow for Eastern NC. That's something to really keep an eye on for eastern areas.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like the Euro/EPS have screwed the pooch on this one & have been behind the curve from the onset. Everyone that was worried about having this model on board before seriously believing this threat have egg on their face. It was honestly kind of strange to see the EPS and Euro more progressive with the northern stream than the GFS a few days ago, it’s almost always the other way around, this fact certainly left me scratching my head. Moral of the story here: no matter how good a model and its ensemble suite are, they are never infallible & it’s rarely a good idea to put all or even a majority of your eggs into one basket.
This looks like a very legit threat for the I 40 corridor (TN, NC, upstate SC, and VA), Warm advection, isentropic upglide, & frontogenesis will be the primary forcing agents for ascent here, most of the time global models will low ball the magnitude of one, two, or all of the above due to their coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, leading to more widespread and intense precip verifying
This looks like a very legit threat for the I 40 corridor (TN, NC, upstate SC, and VA), Warm advection, isentropic upglide, & frontogenesis will be the primary forcing agents for ascent here, most of the time global models will low ball the magnitude of one, two, or all of the above due to their coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, leading to more widespread and intense precip verifying
snowlover91
Member
Yeah it's very odd to see the Euro and EPS catch on so late and suddenly, the GEFS and GFS has led the way surprisingly. I know just yesterday not a single EPS member had anything for NC and then all of a sudden it flipped and now there are 25-30 with snows in NC. NAM is going to be big once it gets in range, especially if we can get a weak coastal to pop like the CMC and some ensemble members are hinting at happening.
To be fair, very early on, the Euro had this while the GFS was showing a lakes cutter through Texarkana. Euro was closest early on but stuck to the suppressed idea for days on end without budging. Which was not helpful if you were trying to make a medium range forecast based on the Euro alone.
I think there may be some confusion here. I called this failure for this area, well, because it's looking to be. Moisture was never really an issue for us, in my opinion down here. Just worried about warmer temperatures. We shall see., but the Euro did have a big storm, along with the GFS down in the deeper South which I based those thoughts on. It's pretty much kaput for us, at this point.
A line from about Newberry, and North into Upstate, upper 3rd of SC, NC, NE GA (even) still looks okay to me. Now you guys may have to fight temps in areas, I'm not sure right now.
A line from about Newberry, and North into Upstate, upper 3rd of SC, NC, NE GA (even) still looks okay to me. Now you guys may have to fight temps in areas, I'm not sure right now.
Also notice that ridge flexing a bit more
Jessy89
Member
We need this thing to slow down and not come through till Thursday night into Friday. Let the cold air sink in first
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Figured that'd happen. SE ridge tends to strengthen as we get closer to event.
Temperatures are a major issue on the Euro..I know I know don’t worry about temp profiles this far out..but I am. It’s cause for concern. Not even close on the Euro verbatim
iGrey_X
Member
The Euro has been very bad with temperature profiles lately. That cold air is coming out ahead of the moisture more and more with each run so far today.
ajr
Member
Womp. Weak and suppressed.
But don’t worry. Here’s your DP’s after all the moisture has moved out. I wish this didn’t look like cold chasing moisture on the Euro..bleh
Ensembles vs globals Rn, exactly why I’m not freaking out
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Let's see what we have with EPS...
Here’s the Canadian ensembles, once again showing that maximum in eastern NC, and looks solid for NC in general 
I don't like it when you have a few ensemble members showing something but not the operational. I know some don't mind not having the Euro onboard, but this is it's money range. If we're talking about missing a phase by a few miles, I could get with the idea that a small change or two leads to a Boom. But in this setup, we're going to need more than one or two baby steps, if the Euro is even close to reality here. I'll be happy to take the egg on my face if I'm wrong. We'll see.
Btw, maybe if we had a 1070 High, we'd get some cold in here. Smh.
I really do not understand how the Euro is so dry compared to CMC and GFS. Comparing them at 500 they look to me quite similar, it even looks like the Euro is further west with the energy we keep watching to help fuel more precipitation. ?
As far as the overrunning is concerned, we’re hoping for those jet steaks to produce further north and NOT necessarily for a northward jump at this point. Any more of a northward jump on the Euro and we might be in the 50’s..and even with a high approaching 1050 right smack dab in the middle of the country..man, go figure ??
??
It could be that the Canadian and GFS are not very good models. Or maybe the Euro is way out to lunch.
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Nam is definitely on the CMC/ GFS side of things
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Judging by what I’ve seen here this year, I’d say the latter.
snowlover91
Member
The Euro in the "fantasy" range 7+ days out had a few runs with a threat but since getting inside 5-6 days where it typically is the go to model it has been consistently suppressed. It may end up being right, but the jump it experienced yesterday especially on the EPS was pretty sudden, going from 0 members with snow to 25-30 for the Carolina area. The difference between the wetter GFS and CMC vs the Euro/UK is pretty big still.
iGrey_X
Member
Right now I’d saw those in that purple region will get a wintery mix but there’s plenty of time for that to trend colder especially with so much high pressure moving in and appears to move in quicker. Those on the northern fringe in the light blue are fighting moisture issues but these things tend to trend NW and more moisture is showing up. Those is the darker blue in my opinion have the best shot for a winter storm. The high pressure is moving into a prime spot and you can see the buckling of isobars for the CAD regions as well. With moisture trending further north as well, these areas at this moment appear to have the best shot for something. Models won’t likely even begin converging on something until tomorrow around the 12z runs.
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snowlover91
Member
As far as model verification scores go at 5h, the Euro and UK are still the top two models but it doesn't mean they are correct with the evolution of the precipitation field either. GFS is dead last and CMC is 3rd.
