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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

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We need a stronger push of cold air. I have no doubt that precip will trend north with time. Even with current model progs, I would bet on heavy precip rather far north (despite data showing it south). The temperatures will be an issue, though. No model currently has temperatures suitable for snow except in the highest elevations.
 
I’ve noticed the last couple weeks the models that show cold have trended colder inside 5 days. The runs today and tomorrow will be telling.


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Stormdoc said:
I keep looking at the setup at 850 and 500 and keep thinking “wow, what a good look for overrunning”, but yet nothing at the surface. Hopefully will change
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Yeah its not that far off even on the worst models. I'm not sure if we can see a reversal back to something better given the setup but its not as much of an impossible thought as having a low trending NW and hoping it comes back SE. Hope to see a little less of a trough in the NE, more energy and SW in the upper midwest, and a little more SER with the 12z runs. Never thought I would want to see the SER pump more but here we are
 
The placement of the high seems to be a issue when it comes to cold air


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SD said:
Yeah its not that far off even on the worst models. I'm not sure if we can see a reversal back to something better given the setup but its not as much of an impossible thought as having a low trending NW and hoping it comes back SE. Hope to see a little less of a trough in the NE, more energy and SW in the upper midwest, and a little more SER with the 12z runs. Never thought I would want to see the SER pump more but here we are
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We just need the northern stream trough to dig SW earlier, rooting for the NS to back off would probably just mean it continues to be worse and the NS continues to trend too fast and too quickly east. Need it strong, just not when it's all too late
 
SD said:
Yeah its not that far off even on the worst models. I'm not sure if we can see a reversal back to something better given the setup but its not as much of an impossible thought as having a low trending NW and hoping it comes back SE. Hope to see a little less of a trough in the NE, more energy and SW in the upper midwest, and a little more SER with the 12z runs. Never thought I would want to see the SER pump more but here we are
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The SER always ends up stronger than modeled. That our only trump card.


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SD said:
This is the difference between winning the showcase showdown or watching the yodler fall off the cliff View attachment 34451
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The good thing is, we're still far enough out that some of those vorts could still trend stronger or into better positioning, which could shape the downstream response. Still think this is a very low probability event, but it's still worth watching for another day or two.
 
Jessy89 said:
The placement of the high seems to be a issue when it comes to cold air


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The lack of interaction from the trough and being too progressive is the problem and it will likely not be an issue if we get the type of setup we need. We just have been trending away from it so the high is looking less impressive as a cold feeder.
 
Got to think that if we keep the same look as of right now, snow will fall. I base that off 2 weeks ago when snow fell for parts of the upstate and triad of SC and NC. Dynamic cooling was huge. I don’t see that much of a difference here except the actual system. Temperature wise, this is extremely marginal just like that system. With that long horizontal area of moisture setting up, someone right at the Northern fringe of the moisture could cool down enough to have some heavy wet snow. That’s obviously if it kept the same look right now, which it won’t. Eric mentioned it yesterday, this has that Feb 11, 2014 look to it. Which was a pre event to the larger event that came 12 hours later.
 
6z GEFS. Notice the heights of the ensemble members around 120-132 hours are SW of the mean (black line). Thjs is good to see as the modeling is struggling specifically with this feature. You can also see the eights are north of the mean off the atlantic coast...I think this means it will likely be more amplified than being advertised. Can't give up on it yet..

06Z-20200215_GEFSUS_500_hghtens-108-150-100-100.gif
 
Icon was less flat with our southern stream wave. Actually tried to change the orientation more SW to NE..maybe just maybe the trend towards flatter has stopped on global modeling ??‍♂️Here’s to hoping 12z improves across the board A23AD062-F06D-4860-8A9F-66467450EDB5.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Icon was less flat with our southern stream wave. Actually tried to change the orientation more SW to NE..maybe just maybe the trend towards flatter has stopped on global modeling ??‍♂️Here’s to hoping 12z improves across the board View attachment 34455
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This subtle change allowed the moisture to gain some northern ground, if fact I'm sure as it sits its underplaying the amount of precip. Now temps are a little bit of an issue but ICON struggles with that anyway so we shall see
 
The moisture doesn’t matter if we can’t get the cold air. The trends have been maybe some rain followed by the cold.


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