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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Obviously the trends today is a cold rain. That’s evident but I don’t understand why it’s not colder the high is a strong high. Past events have been a snow storm with a high like that
 
Quite frankly I think the globals temperature profiles are ridiculous. A high that strong in prime position running step for step with the moisture is a winter storm look if I’ve ever seen one.
 
I’d give it a few more days folks, walking a fine line, usually the case for snow in the southeast. As we saw last weekend, minor changes in precip coverage and thermals inside 48hrs can have big consequences in what is realized.
 
Classic example of global NWP not handling northward extent of precip and not catching on to low level WAA responsible for that more expansive precip sheild, this system has trended with more moisture, but also warmer1BABFCC8-CABC-4E97-85EC-2AECE3B93099.gif
 
iGrey_X said:
Quite frankly I think the globals temperature profiles are ridiculous. A high that strong in prime position running step for step with the moisture is a winter storm look if I’ve ever seen one.
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The cold associated with that high comes in eventually, it just has the aforementioned ridge to get through first.

gfs_T850_us_fh90-120.gif
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I’m just utterly confused. A 1045 high is sitting over the Midwest in an arctic air mass and we can’t break 35 degrees. What’s missing here
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If we could get pecip up into NC, it looks like it would be cold enough for snow. 12z shows some snow showers with a little more concentration in the SE portions.
 
We would benefit from a slight adjustment in timing and it wouldn’t take much. A slow down of ~6 hours and a continued trend of what we’ve been seeing would help a lot with thermals. I wouldn’t be too worried about temps yet.


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Storm5 said:
I get that snow cover helps but we have to look no further than the system last week that dumped snow on Georgia . There was anemic snow cover to the north then as well


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Just saying it would help that’s all. Didn’t say it had to be there to get cold down here.


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Jon said:
We would benefit from a slight adjustment in timing and it wouldn’t take much. A slow down of ~6 hours and a continued trend of what we’ve been seeing would help a lot with thermals. I wouldn’t be too worried about temps yet.


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Agree with you. We're not too far from getting something up here along I-40 corridor. This storm is making me anxious because I'm supposed to have a first date with someone this Thursday and the uncertainty is stressing me out a bit ?
 
Clem282340 said:
Is the liberty area out on this system for snow
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No way to say anyone is out right now. Theres a ways to go and a ton of model runs to go. The one thing we dont want is it to speed up..we need it to slow down or it's a rain event
 
I can get behind what the CMC is selling this run.
GDPSUS_prec_snow_135.png
 
If we're going to get a big storm like the CMC, we need the energy to almost cutoff and tilt neutral. Hopefully, we get a NW trend.
This is what happened on that big Euro run. We can still have that happen but it will be further west.
gem_z500_vort_us_21.png
 
If the cold isn’t coming in until Thursday evening then we need the moisture to last thru Friday. We need more overrunning and not pushed out to sea in a hurry on Thursday. Or a tilt like posted above would work.
 
These ensemble means showing the bulk of snow potential into the easternmost portion of NC makes you think maybe the low popping late just off the coast is likely the key winter weather feature here and not the weak overrunning prior. Just some thoughts. And maybe some pretty obvious ones
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
These ensemble means showing the bulk of snow potential into the easternmost portion of NC makes you think maybe the low popping late just off the coast is likely the key winter weather feature here and not the weak overrunning prior. Just some thoughts. And maybe some pretty obvious ones
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That's what I immediately assumed when I noticed the snow centralized in that particular area.... A low popping off the coast.
 
Ollie Williams said:
If we're going to get a big storm like the CMC, we need the energy to almost cutoff and tilt neutral. Hopefully, we get a NW trend.
This is what happened on that big Euro run. We can still have that happen but it will be further west.
gem_z500_vort_us_21.png
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Oh wow! Yep. Way more amped up. I love seeing the wave losing the flat/progressive nature on multiple models, so the Nam is no longer an outlier. A slight adjustment and a much bigger area of snowfall would be expected....got to love the trends today. 12z Euro is huge to see if the king sticks to his guns.


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For those that keep asking about the upstate, timing is everything here. Which is usually the case
 
Jon said:
The CMC is slower, around 6hrs slower than the gfs. Storm is more west at 6z...Matters a lot!


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Exactly...lines up with the Nam at 84hrs as well..gotta thread the needle and really need a slower solution like cmc to have a shot here.
 
It’s clear what we’re seeing here .. definitely an NC TN maybe upstate SC type of event where the moisture will be able to override the cold 850s that are slowly pushing down (this is also why there is all that rain further south because even tho there’s a big ole strong high pressure the orientation of the front that is bringing the cold air in is oriented west to East and moving south slowly) (if the high was in Pennsylvania or New England than we would all be plenty cold enough with plenty cold air filtering in)

I also think we really need to keep the “is this trending for snow for *some location*” out of this thread it’s clutter
 
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