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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Might be a dud for the Gfs tonight but it’s too extremely close at this range to say it can’t easily shift north with time (which is what usually happens anyway even inside three days)
 
It will trend North. I hear all the time about things not set up to do so, yet they always trend North at least a little. The problem is that temps will likely not work out. chilly rain ftw!
 
Jessy89 said:
Bottom line shouldn’t of started this thread so early


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Do you even read any of the staff's requests to stop talking about starting threads/not starting threads and posting banter in the main threads? It's been posted like 100 times. Please stop doing this.
 
I'm gonna look at the gefs ens to see if it's consistent versus the operational
 
WxBlue said:
Meh, it's not your traditional set-up to look for "northward trend".
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I agree with you. To me, this isn’t a traditional let’s trend north at the end. To me this is a high didn’t come down as fast and more rain vs snow for sure. I actually think this could be a rare I-20 and south (maybe I-85 to curl up to maybe RDU) especially if a costal happens* versus this ends up to I-40 north thing.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree with you. To me, this isn’t a traditional let’s trend north at the end. To me this is a high didn’t come down as fast and more rain vs snow for sure. I actually think this could be a rare I-20 and south (maybe I-85 to curl up to maybe RDU) especially if a costal happens* versus thus ends up to I-40 north thing.
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I gotcha. I’m not seeing this turn into an apps rubber by any means but some slight fluctuations


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Honestly, this flow might be too fast for weak overrunning. There’s a possibility we’re asking for too much here. With that said, let’s watch this thing for another 24 hours before we give up. Just keep the towel in hand
 
Jessy89 said:
My point is this storm system is to far out Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Models are still flopping like a fish on dry land. This won’t have legs till maybe Sunday!


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The overall setup on the models isn't really "flopping" like you describe. The setup has actually stabilized pretty well across models and from run-to-run. Just because the surface conditions and model projected snowfall totals are slightly changing doesn't mean it's "flopping". Maybe you should look beyond IMBY Snowfall projections and actually look at the setup and analyze what's going on.
 
I think gfs tonight was improvement to be honest. Good bit of moisture temps in the mid/upper 30s during the event, it wouldn't take much for it to be colder. I agree with deltadog, this could be a snow/rain event I-20 or south due to the high pressing down.
 
bouncycorn said:
The overall setup on the models isn't really "flopping" like you describe. The setup has actually stabilized pretty well across models and from run-to-run. Just because the surface conditions and model projected snowfall totals are slightly changing doesn't mean it's "flopping". Maybe you should look beyond IMBY Snowfall projections and actually look at the setup and analyze what's going on.
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I’m speaking of the south east as a whole. Gfs doesn’t have as much cold air as with 12z or 18z. It has caved to the Euro in keeping the system south. I’m not saying it won’t come back but the models are having a hard time in.

1. Amount of cold air
2. Where the front will stall and where the low will develop and track
3. How much moisture will it pull up from the gulf.

Those 3 keys are still working themselves out. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong


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Jessy89 said:
I’m speaking of the south east as a whole. Gfs doesn’t have as much cold air as with 12z or 18z. It has caved to the Euro in keeping the system south. I’m not saying it won’t come back but the models are having a hard time in.

1. Amount of cold air
2. Where the front will stall and where the low will develop and track
3. How much moisture will it pull up from the gulf.

Those 3 keys are still working themselves out. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong


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You worry to much. Just take a moment and listen to the ones you can learn from.
 
Jessy89 said:
I’m speaking of the south east as a whole. Gfs doesn’t have as much cold air as with 12z or 18z. It has caved to the Euro in keeping the system south. I’m not saying it won’t come back but the models are having a hard time in.

1. Amount of cold air
2. Where the front will stall and where the low will develop and track
3. How much moisture will it pull up from the gulf.

Those 3 keys are still working themselves out. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong


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Front stalling? Low developing and tracking? Pulling moisture from the gulf? Are you looking at the same system as the rest of us?

The key isn't a low developing from a stalled front. This isn't a miller A... accordingly, the moisture source isn't really the gulf it's the stj and pacific. The GFS didn't cave to the EURO. The GFS still looks a lot like the 18z gfs at h5. The EURO had the stj staying south whereas the GFS still has the STJ north. Big difference between the runs is 1- amount of moisture due to orientation of stj and 2- temperatures due to econus hp.
 
1581742116999.png

The biggest change in this GFS run isn't the precip or even how far south it is... it's the temperatures. Precip stayed largely the same. 18z run on right, 00z run on left.
 
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