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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Cary_Snow95 said:
The Nam by far. Notice the trough is digging more to the Southwest and interacting (tugging) the energy over Cali. The more that trough digs the better
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Thanks, might get moved but where do you see the trough digging?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
The Nam by far. Notice the trough is digging more to the Southwest and interacting (tugging) the energy over Cali. The more that trough digs the better
Click to expand...

Should mean more moist WSW flow. However, the tradeoff is possible warming dewpoints. The usual tricky situation. Probably good news for TN/NC though.
 
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png
Icon looking interesting
 
Gfs definitely a improvement I bet it’s a touch to warm. Gfs has had a warm bias in the past


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This looks good for NC due to more moisture but bad for ATL/Columbia (and maybe even a little north of that line) south due to it being warmer at 850.
 
I-40 was looking like there were gonna look from the outside, not so sure about that anymore, lol
 
Doesn’t the gfs have a warm bias. I’m guessing there be some more members showing snow then last run


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You can tell why the the GFS warm by looking at the energy over the Great Lakes. The more it digs, the colder the system gets. I think we have solved our moisture issue. The Euro is different and has this energy digging. Though this run was a step in the right direction for more cold air.
gfs_z500_vort_us_fh114_trend 2.gif
 
A 1042 high over eastern Iowa? I’m not believing those temperature profiles. I’m thinking mid 30’s at best across northern Alabama, Georgia, upstate SC, through Charlotte. Those are the areas I’d say look good for a winter storm right now.
 
Bsud said:
Am I wrong or does it look like the same areas as last storm getting the action
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Your not wrong assuming it trends colder I could see upstate sc. north of 85 and NE ga. And the southern mountains of NC getting some snow


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Ethan80963 said:
One thing that needs to be monitored is the HP that the EPS has that the GFS doesn’t have that would me a big difference
View attachment 34583
View attachment 34584
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That doesn’t mean anything. There’s still lots of high pressure there. There just isn’t an H.
1f7c5f332d1b47de43065029207c5300.jpg

And besides, off of the GFS map on Wxbell, there is an H.
73e82b0355d14bef3371dc4e4158f0b0.jpg



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Moisture has never been a problem this winter. Never understood why some are so hung up on that. Worry about the temps! Most of us are looking at chilly rain. I could see NC and GA mtns cashing in by verification though.
 
Ollie Williams said:
That doesn’t mean anything. There’s still lots of high pressure there. There just isn’t an H.
1f7c5f332d1b47de43065029207c5300.jpg

And besides, off of the GFS map on Wxbell, there is an H.
73e82b0355d14bef3371dc4e4158f0b0.jpg



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Click to expand...
maybe it’s a meso high tho? either way, too early to focus on something like that
 
Ollie Williams said:
That doesn’t mean anything. There’s still lots of high pressure there. There just isn’t an H.
1f7c5f332d1b47de43065029207c5300.jpg

And besides, off of the GFS map on Wxbell, there is an H.
73e82b0355d14bef3371dc4e4158f0b0.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That’s almost a banana high. I just don’t see how you have a 1035 HP in prime CAD position and a 1041 HP moving SE through Missouri and not see a winter storm in this blue zone.
 

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