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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Looks like the morning ensembles are favoring areas towards central/eastern NC and SE Virginia due to a precipitation bump as a weak wave moves along the front into the Atlantic. I suspect we want this feature stronger for more precip or to get more involved? Or does a stronger wave mean more warm air? As usual, another touch and go system
 
Clem282340 said:
Would that be good for the upstate
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It would mean more precipitation, which could help cool the column but at the same time also bring in warmer air. I think this going to be a storm like last week’s surprise where we don’t know what we are getting until it is falling.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a weak low pop off the coast and enhance things for Eastern NC. A good number of GEFS members and some EPS members are hinting at this and I expect when we get in NAM range it will resolve any features like that far better than the globals.
 
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Chris justices thoughts


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I still say cold air is being way under modeled here with 2 high pressures in prime locations for the NE Georgia, upstate, through the I85 corridor in NC north to see snow. Globals have been atrocious this winter with temp profiles as well. We will see what mesoscale models say as well before I write this off. This just looks to be modeled wrong quite frankly. That’s not me letting the love for snow talk either. Too many things in prime locations as well as the faults that these models have shown all winter is leading me to believe those particular areas are in for a potential winter storm.
 
iGrey_X said:
I still say cold air is being way under modeled here with 2 high pressures in prime locations for the NE Georgia, upstate, through the I85 corridor in NC north to see snow. Globals have been atrocious this winter with temp profiles as well. We will see what mesoscale models say as well before I write this off. This just looks to be modeled wrong quite frankly. That’s not me letting the love for snow talk either. Too many things in prime locations as well as the faults that these models have shown all winter is leading me to believe those particular areas are in for a potential winter storm.
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Not in your exact words but sounds like Chris justice thinks the same thing. His scenario probably not a full scale winter storm but a small event none the less. And I have a feeling the nam will do better with picking up cold air more accurately.


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Jessy89 said:
Not in your exact words but sounds like Chris justice thinks the same thing. His scenario probably not a full scale winter storm but a small event none the less. And I have a feeling the nam will do better with picking up cold air more accurately.


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If you go off the globals, this thing is done for anyone not near the VA/NC border. But even the globals are showing things from a Temperature profile even in the column from a high pressure standpoint that would constitute a colder solution. Now CJ does look like he’s got my similar thinking but he can’t just say there’s going to probably be snow in the upstate with something more concrete showing it. That’s why I see he slapped a winter mix here instead.
 
Not a bad jet look on the 6z gfs some divergence over the area with a primary jet steak off of the MA coast and a secondary jet steak poking into the deep south. This also to me hints at the potential for a weak sfc low to get going embedded within the main precip shieldgfs_uv250_eus_19 (1).png
What is interesting though is now the gfs has a secondary area of fgen over NC. If we get this to become reality there should be a second precip max on the northern edge of the precipitation shield in a W->E band. This may be what some of the ensemble members with the higher qpf values along and east of US1 are keying on1fc0117f-83f3-4c71-88ef-74fc9f77047b.gif
 
I think this is another classic case of the global snot quote modeling the energy well and moisture transport well on the model.. clearly will be a short range model deal as always and a NOWCAST type of thing .. although the systems are different the trigger for precip is the same in both events and it’s what’s almost always under modeled
 
Nam is 2/2 this year. I’ll get on the nam ship that will take off tonight. Hopefully it’s a snowy cruise. And not a sinking ship. Early indications are the nam will look better then the globals


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Jessy89 said:
Nam is 2/2 this year. I’ll get on the nam ship that will take off tonight. Hopefully it’s a snowy cruise. And not a sinking ship. Early indications are the nam will look better then the globals


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Yes, the NAM has been very reliable for the thermal profiles this winter, especially inside 36 hours.
 
SD said:
Icon is moving north but farther away with the highView attachment 34663
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Precip is gaining ground on that 540 line..which doesn’t mean much. The flat orientation of precip/southern stream wave is just a back breaker. I feel like if we had more of SW to NE orientation then temps would respond with that big high pressure sitting up top
 
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