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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

iGrey_X said:
That’s almost a banana high. I just don’t see how you have a 1035 HP in prime CAD position and a 1041 HP moving SE through Missouri and not see a winter storm in this blue zone.
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This storm is definitely not your typical setup. H5 will be important in this case to monitor cold.


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Cmc looks like the icon
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png
 
I say we have ourselves a winter storm on the models by Monday. It’s slowly looking better and the players are in prime position for a winter storm.
 
If I were in TN to NC, i be getting little excited. North central bama could be in play. 0z gefs looks little better
 
UKMET is suppressed outside of a random strip in NC that's very light but the 850s look pretty good to me. If you could somehow get the precip to make it without it being warm, you would have something.
 
WxBlue said:
I need to see more from EPS before I get excited about this system. Also... ALWAYS worry about the cold first in the South. Having the moisture or not doesn't matter if it's not cold enough ahead of the system.
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agreed
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
UKMET is suppressed outside of a random strip in NC that's very light but the 850s look pretty good to me. If you could somehow get the precip to make it without it being warm, you would have something.
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Make me wonder, once again, how models are handling the isentropic upglide at 700 mb level. As webbweather pointed out over and over... models often underestimate the northward precipitation shield.
 
WxBlue said:
Make me wonder, once again, how models are handling the isentropic upglide at 700 mb level. As webbweather pointed out over and over... models often underestimate the northward precipitation shield.
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I agree with both of y’all, but I honestly find it a bit puzzling that the euro is still that suppressed. But heck right now, precip or no precip anything south of I-40 is nothing but a cold ass rain. We are all going to need some help in the temp department.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree with both of y’all, but I honestly find it a bit puzzling that the euro is still that suppressed. But heck right now, precip or no precip anything south of I-40 is nothing but a cold ass rain. We are all going to need some help in the temp department.
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I-40 corridor is either dry or light snow at this point IMO. Southward need a lot of help with temperature first.
 
I'm ready for the short range models to start showing. Seems like they are leading the way this winter, LOL!!
 
The question between snow or not is how much energy can be trapped under this ridge. If energy can be trapped, it try to tilt neutral acting as another source of bringing precip north and lowering upper level heights. If it doesn’t, the energy leftover gets squashed by a ridge. Here is a comparison of a snowy solution and a dry solution. Both are very possible.
25FB962B-28D7-4F97-BF61-BC1C32298A76.png435CD1F5-7CE4-4672-BB59-2C74184B3EB3.png
 
It was a pretty significant northward and westward jog on the Euro from 12z to 00z with the precip field. The northern edge of the precip at 108 on the 00z was probably 150 miles north of where it was at 120 on the 12z. Areas of Alabama that were blank at 12z had up to .30 that run. Temps are a much bigger issue south of 1-40. Even 850s are 1-3c where the precip is falling.
 
00z EPS isn’t bad. Precip went south, but there is still a good chunk of members with snow, granted the mean is skewed by member 15
1E300994-BCE7-4FD8-B565-D10F3540476E.png38FFD87B-F14A-4FCD-B051-D49B80BB276A.pngE3E37A4D-ABFA-4E74-A2BE-562255C26096.png
 
Discussion from GSP

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 am Sunday: The medium range will begin with chilly/drying
high pressure building south through the forecast in the wake of the
increasingly E/W oriented frontal zone. Global guidance suggests we
are by no means out of the woods regarding the potential for
resurgent moisture into the cool air mass in the Wed night/Thu time
frame, as the 00Z GFS now redevelops precip (albeit primarily a very
cold rain) across roughly the southern half of the area Thu morning.
While the ECMWF remains considerably drier than the GFS, it
nevertheless is trending in a wetter direction, with qpf response
now depicted into the southern half of the forecast area Thu
morning. Needless to say, small pops are retained in the forecast
through the day Thursday, with mainly a mountain snow/Piedmont rain
forecast, although the chance of wintry weather developing east of
the mtns is certainly there if post-frontal precip does indeed
develop. The remainder of the medium range looks dry and colder than
normal.



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When looking at the 06z Euro, I believe that this run would look more like 18z yesterday because of the greater separation between the SW in the north and the PV lo in Canada. To get this system to work, we need the energy to dig and it cannot dig if the PV lobe is working to steal the energy from the wave.
06z
234F204C-25A5-483C-B032-8289DF0F6362.png
0z
787730BD-3DDD-4B65-BF29-DB07371905C5.png
notice how the GFS has no energy leftover to dig because the PV stole it.
DD82D31A-E20B-47C9-A80D-50A930BD09AF.png
 
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