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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Right now I’d say if you’re above that blue line, then you’ll have a better chance from a temperature standpoint. If you’re below the red, then you’ll have a good shot from a moisture stand point. I think at this point in time the i85 corridor in NE Georgia, the upstate, and NC have the best shot at seeing some winter weather. That’s not to say others won’t but at this point in time those folks probably have the best chance. I still say this trends better just because this is what happens everytime we have a winter storm. It looks great, then it looks terrible, then it slowly comes back about 3 days before the event.
 

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iGrey_X said:
Right now I’d say if you’re above that blue line, then you’ll have a better chance from a temperature standpoint. If you’re below the red, then you’ll have a good shot from a moisture stand point. I think at this point in time the i85 corridor in NE Georgia, the upstate, and NC have the best shot at seeing some winter weather. That’s not to say others won’t but at this point in time those folks probably have the best chance. I still say this trends better just because this is what happens everytime we have a winter storm. It looks great, then it looks terrible, then it slowly comes back about 3 days before the event.
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That is what happens more often than not. I thought folks would remember this.
 
iGrey_X said:
Right now I’d say if you’re above that blue line, then you’ll have a better chance from a temperature standpoint. If you’re below the red, then you’ll have a good shot from a moisture stand point. I think at this point in time the i85 corridor in NE Georgia, the upstate, and NC have the best shot at seeing some winter weather. That’s not to say others won’t but at this point in time those folks probably have the best chance. I still say this trends better just because this is what happens everytime we have a winter storm. It looks great, then it looks terrible, then it slowly comes back about 3 days before the event.
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If this indeed plays out a lot of people would be happy. That covers a lot of areas south of 85. But we’ve got to see better trends by tomorrow at least


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I know it the long range NAM but would this look be ok?
77B96D34-C6AD-419C-BD40-47D0D807C660.jpeg
 
I like where I stand in this setup, likely stronger WAA then advertised = lift thus more moisture, last setup was a good example, I was forecasted to stay at 44 degrees and a 30% chance of a isolated shower but got snow showers (peaking at moderate) that was a classic example of stronger WAA allowing a more extensive precip shield, I like areas north of Columbia and south of I-40 in this setup , especially CLT/south CLT, that’s if NWP keep the precip sheild at where there keeping it now (they under do WAA)
 
Brick Tamland said:
The last GEFS had snow for NC and SC.
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Yes but the GEFS should be taken with a grain of salt as horrible as it's been the last 2 years. Its mean is skewed by a couple members with basically nothing on 80% of them. The EPS had 0 of 51. That's not good at all inside 120 hrs.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Yes but the GEFS should be taken with a grain of salt as horrible as it's been the last 2 years. Its mean is skewed by a couple members with basically nothing on 80% of them. The EPS had 0 of 51. That's not good at all inside 120 hrs.
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Well, guess you have your mind made up.
 
I not saying it’s gonna overperform, and not saying it’s gonna 100% happen, but if you see short term models like the NAM show a more expansive precip sheild/more snow as we enter its range vs other globals, it would make sense, since it can pick up on things better like WAA in the lower levels because after all it’s a “mesoscale” model
 
I think the Nam looks much better than the GFS! Notice how the Northern and Southern streams seam to be much closer and compressed. Plus, isn’t that more lift moving directly over us?EE1D8E56-B82C-4E24-AD68-2DD53E1B1C4A.png4914FDFB-C679-4982-8DB3-20539094D6DC.png
 
ajr said:
If we can get the energy in a better spot, at least we have moisture to work with
View attachment 34475
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I just don’t see how this look doesn’t product snow in NE Georgia, the upstate, up to I40 in NC, and through Charlotte. Plenty of moisture with a 1045 High pressure running in tandem. That’s a beautiful look for a winter storm in my opinion.
 
It would be a thing of beauty, and seemingly not out of ordinary (correct if I’m wrong), for the euro to pick it back up tmrw/monday (maybe not w cold temps), GFS to come back to euro and NAM begin sniffing out cold once we get into its wheelhouse.....seems like this has happened more than a few times over last several years....if globals aren’t handling key features exactly rt yet......this is not a wishcast post but more a “haven’t we potentially seen this scenario many times before” w opportunity for learning why current synoptic setup as modeled isn’t likely gonna change??? Maybe some of you pros can shut down a lot of additional posts by delivering a science lesson in laymen’s terms for the weenie.....I mean.....weather enthusiasts?. Even if we lose the storm there’s still much to be gained by understanding “why/how certain set ups differ and how/why models behave differently given differing scenarios.
 
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