Cary_Snow95
Member
The wave on the nam seems like it would be squashed once it gets caught in the flow
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
NCCWOP9077
Member
NWS Morehead City went ahead and mentioned the possibility for the late week system.
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Thor
Member
Jessy89
Member
Not sure what to think of GFS. It’s really trying to slow down moisture. But also suppressed more then I think it will be.
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Welp. I see why no one is talking about the GFS
Jessy89
Member
Gfs almost looks like cold chasing moisture
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Look at the trend of that blue moving in... we still have another 3-4 days to get more blue!!!
NCCWOP9077
Member
A couple more ticks north with the moisture would have made it decent for NC , not sure if it's too much to ask or not. There's still time for change.
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Unless this thing goes full on suppression tomorrow, hard to imagine this precip field doesn't come N/NW more (almost always does). Not optimal but doable and colder 850's is promising, maybe.
Just a tad more north with fgen and could be game on
Yeah this could improve 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That is pretty much where we want the moisture to show now before the NW jog. Looks like a classic setup for the eventual NW movement.
iGrey_X
Member
Those 850’s are cold. The fgen looks like more moisture and good dynamic cooling especially from the mid upstate up to the I40 corridor. Interesting
And I assume this jet streak could be a player....
Not really classic for the usual NW trend though, if there was a slp system sitting down there then I say it's already to far NW. Still doable no doubt
Jessy89
Member
In my opinion that was actually a good gfs run
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ajr
Member
That streak is trending stronger too -- there's some energy the GFS is leaving behind.. I wonder if a low gets spun up with that degree of divergence.
You can see why this was almost game on for SE NC, good VV's and moisture at 700 mb
ajr
Member
CMC looks like it might be even slower with the precip..
Not at hr 84, though. But it has its uses. I think it has a tendency to be amped in the LR, however.
Shaggy
Member
Would that jetstreak potentially aid low development that some models suggests as it exits?
I think if anything it could enhance precip rates not sure about the low development
CMC says don't worry about precip
00z ICON is a strikeout. No moisture.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
With all the precip we have had since November, I don't buy that.
CMC bout to crush ENC
CMC develops a coastal, lmaoo
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
CMC gives entire state of NC snow.
NCCWOP9077
Member
Whoa CMC
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Big woof 
Cmc slowed it down and popped a coastal, boom indeed
CMC huge difference at H5, no wonder it's pounding us..... too bad it's horrible
I’m willing to bet there would be some convective type stuff in western sections of this storm
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Actually CMC has 3rd best verification score. Way ahead of GFS.
... hmmm IT DID GET THAT UPGRADE THOUGH??? .. in all seriousness though the cmc is just showing us what needs to happen to have this be a bigger deal I’m sure those crazy ensemble members on the euro had similar set ups
Final product. Ouch 
WxBlue
Meteorologist
CMC is actually doing better than GFS with global skill score in the past year so I wouldn't say it's horrible.