iGrey_X
Member
HP moving out ahead of the moisture on the GFS. H5 looks better and the cold push is beginning to appear much better as well.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Suppressed.. step towards the ECMWF. Not too good imo
packfan98
Moderator
I’m not sure. The bulk of the precip seems more suppressed and lighter at 99 to me on the instaweathermaps. we will see shortly.
S/W digs, but the PV doesn't and the wave can't mature.
Chattownsnow
Member
look at the northern extent of the precip shield change over 5 runs north of Texas. That’s significant.iGrey_X
Member
Very telling that as you get closer to verification time the moisture is becoming much more prominent. That should be very telling down stream for the Carolinas.
I've said it many times and will say it again: You never want to be in the bullseye 5 days out. Been burned too many times. Also, while it's not guaranteed, the NW is trend is real and will most likely come to fruition if we don't lose the storm altogether. Still plenty of times for things to go right or wrong, depending on your location.
Chattownsnow
Member
the wave just collapses and dampens out as it heads East, choking the moisture flow from the Southwest. If it could just hang on a little longer...
Been saying this all along (despite folks disagreeing), but this system will come down to temperatures for most of us. I have no doubt that the precip will be much more expansive/n than currently projected. As of right now, however, most will just see rain.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Moisture is not going to be a problem. We need temps to improve quite a bit, don’t even look at precip, it will be there
John1122
Member
That east Iowa HP with moisture blossoming in Texas has always been a Tennessee snow set up. Rarely is the high 1045+ though and that is a major model bias. I'd be very surprised if that high verified over 1040. So maybe it won't have as much squashing power.
Maybe the unusually strong HP will cause temps to trend downward... that's what we need!
Cary_Snow95
Member
Only thing keeping the gfs from looking like the cmc is the trough doesn’t dig with the wave. The wave deepens on this run and the trough just splits off instead of digging
iGrey_X
Member
Every model is around 1047+ for the HP so that is very likely to take place.
John1122
Member
The February 2014 snow event had a high in the same spot but it was 1035. That's plenty to get snow even down to Atlanta.
John1122
Member
I'll believe it when I see it. I see way too many 1045-1050 highs on modeling that verify at 1035 or less when it comes time. This one may be the exception to that but I wouldn't wager money on it.
Jessy89
Member
I don’t understand why the models have it so warm with such a strong high pressure. This is very very unusual situation. In the past Atlanta to Columbia north would see snow. But not this time. GFS=Rain
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iGrey_X
Member
I highly doubt the High will be 1050 but I’ll equally doubt the high will be below 1040. 1044-1047 look very real.
ajr
Member
Agree with others we just need to keep an eye on how things evolve. This happening upstream:
With this amount of moisture:
And this degree of divergence aloft:
Is probably the best overall setup we’ve had this winter <5 days out.
With this amount of moisture:
And this degree of divergence aloft:
Is probably the best overall setup we’ve had this winter <5 days out.
iGrey_X
Member
That’s why I just don’t believe in the northern upstate that it will be rain. A high that strong moving in tandem with moisture is a winter storm if I’ve ever seen one.
You need the precipitation to slow down, I believe.
Jessy89
Member
But the question is why is almost every model showing it to warm and rainy? Something is seriously wrong
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baroowoofr
Member
Apparently meteocentre has the RGEM out to 72 hours. It looks different to me, but can't tell if it looks better or worse, for anyone:
baroowoofr
Member
here are meteocentre's precip panels out to hr 72:
iGrey_X
Member
The moisture isn’t going to be a problem with this. The expansion in Texas, Oklahoma, and even with today’s system is proof that there will likely be more moisture and the NW trend is real. The temperatures are being modeled in upper 30’s and low 40’s and I find that absolutely hard to believe with a 1047 high over us. Even with the last winter system last a few days ago was quite colder than what was being modeled. This is lining up for a winter storm in my opinion.
My guess we would have more of a NAM like outcomeJust as a reference point here are the temps for 3 major models at 12z and the 18z Nam for Thur. at 06z. The Nam is a good bit colder...
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NCSNOW
Member
The moisture isnt a problem at the Daytona 500 today.
0% chance of rain lol. Talk about a bust
0% chance of rain lol. Talk about a bust
I’m with you man, but at the same time we should see some snowy solutions showing up by now. My guess is the cold air is just too late. We need those dewpoints in VA into the upper teens prior to the event and it’s just not happening. ENC is favored here because there is still precip available to work with (coastal low formation) once the upper atmosphere decides to cooperate
whatalife
Moderator
That would be my guess too. It should be better at nailing down the temps vs. the global models.
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The 3KM NAM generally will handle the thermal structure of the atmosphere better than a global model. With that said, it's not very useful outside 24-36 hours at best, imo. I think the big globals handle everything else, like 500mb especially better.
Overall it still looks solid, down from the 12z a bit tho
Models are starting to show the areas of interest nicely, (mostly the ensembles) Tennessee, northern MS/AL/GA, and CLT-East
Models are starting to show the areas of interest nicely, (mostly the ensembles) Tennessee, northern MS/AL/GA, and CLT-East
Jessy89
Member
So many members continue to give a lot of areas snow. For that reason it’s kinda hard to give up on it
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Cary_Snow95
Member
From my untrained eye the RGEM looks to pull the trough down with the shortwave similar to the cmc
Storm5
Member
The 18z GEFS look better for tenn this run
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whatalife
Moderator
Yeah. I don’t disagree. I certainly don’t think it really matters for our area anyway.
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Late arriving cold starting to make its presence known. This is just one example. It’s snowing up in the ensemble means too. Be very wary of you live in an area that isn’t going to get secondary moisture from a coastal low formation. ENC/NESC look to be sitting in the best spot here. Mostly the Inner coastal plain of ENC
We have a slight chance if the cold would be quicker, but in return it squashes the moisture for those to our North.. but we needed that to kinda happen anyways, to get an I-20 area type deal.
Yeah I’m my opinion I think CLT-East/Southeast looks good in this one
I was burned by the GEFS too many times last year. Its garbage. We're in range to look at ops now. Cold is a few hrs too late. I'm with Jimmy, this just isn't it unless you're on the NC coast.