• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

iGrey_X said:
Right now I’d saw those in that purple region will get a wintery mix but there’s plenty of time for that to trend colder especially with so much high pressure moving in and appears to move in quicker. Those on the northern fringe in the light blue are fighting moisture issues but these things tend to trend NW and more moisture is showing up. Those is the darker blue in my opinion have the best shot for a winter storm. The high pressure is moving into a prime spot and you can see the buckling of isobars for the CAD regions as well. With moisture trending further north as well, these areas at this moment appear to have the best shot for something. Models won’t likely even begin converging on something until tomorrow around the 12z runs.
Click to expand...
I hope you end up correct. At this time though I have a hard time believing anywhere south of I40 see anything more than token flakes. It will be hard to overcome the surface temps the globals are showing. That's a wet bulb temp of 39 at CLT. Once the short range models come into range they'll probably be a little colder but probably not enough. I don't see how we get accumulating snow along 85 from GSP to CLT south and east.
 
An interesting observation on how quickly a N trend can happen and precip can shift north. Look at the NAM for the system moving through the southeast today as modeled 81 hours out.

1581884290540.png

Now here is the NAM for 9 hours from the 12z run.
1581884323790.png

This goes to show how dramatic a N trend can be with the precip even inside 84 hours.
 
Having to monitor the NAM on the phone and it’s a little tough to see everything but it looks good to me so far. The energy looks consolidated more and the trough looks further west
 
H5 was slightly worse, not really much to harp on but the temperature swing is really what to take away as the 2m temperatures dropped 12-13 degrees across the upstate and I40 and I85 corridor in NC. The 850’s 0C line went from I40 down to the NC/SC border. That is telling that temperatures are likely going to continue be modeled lower. As time continue to gets closer.
 
NAM with a 1058 and 1050..also has a rain storm breaking out across the south..smh75FB5A0D-AB66-4999-ABD6-AF67171EC671.png
 
Starting to wonder if this shortwave in the Pac has more to do with this than the N stream we've been watching:


giphy.gif


Euro swings it in underneath and N stream shortwave and squishes it while the NAM:

giphy.gif


swings it out more intact.

Not saying the NAM will be right here, just that it is a touchy set up.
 
baroowoofr said:
Starting to wonder if this shortwave in the Pac has more to do with this than the N stream we've been watching:


giphy.gif


Euro swings it in underneath and N stream shortwave and squishes it while the NAM:

giphy.gif


swings it out more intact.

Not saying the NAM will be right here, just that it is a touchy set up.
Click to expand...

Maybe, and I'm stretching, the ECMWF has a bias to hold energy in the SW. Maybe that's allowing it to get caught up in the wave while the NAM moves it out.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Maybe, and I'm stretching, the ECMWF has a bias to hold energy in the SW
Click to expand...

Maybe. Overall Euro does better with H5, but on a global scale. We're looking at a couple of waves in particular in an area of the hemisphere where, at least speaking for myself, I never really look to see how it does with this sort of a set up.

I could see it going either way. Maybe the N stream ends up verifying faster and Euro's squish happens. Maybe this wooly booger over the Pac packs a punch and muscles its way across the CONUS.

That second scenario, better for my area/ latitude, is probably not so good for areas further south, since to bring the moisture north, it has to get the flow out of the SW.
 
Also on this run our driving shortwave is less amplified... our longwave is more extended into the energy under the ridge and overall slightly further west. 3 big setup changes = the setup/pattern is still volatile and big changes at surface could still occur going forward. Nothing set in stone yet!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top