Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[NBAcentel]

Im not SD or Shawn but let’s calm the tension down, we all want something at the end of the day, a winter storm !! There’s fail factors and factors in our favor, Gotta look at it both ways, weather will do what it wants anyways at the end of the day

 

[NBAcentel]

Ice won’t register on that accumulation map right?

Nah

 

[Jessy89]

I’m just surprised how consistent the GFS has been


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[NickyBGuarantee]

19 degree jackpot on the GFS for RDU .. TAKE THAT!

 

[Deleted member 609]

19 degree jackpot on the GFS for RDU .. TAKE THAT! View attachment 112269

That looks realistic

 

[SnowNiner]

What a beautiful run. Right on the cusp of staying all snow, lol. Would love for this to actually take place. Does the southern stream amp, or does it not? GFS camp or Euro camp? I've got serious doubts but weenie hope is alive!modernweenie

 

[Hypsometric]

19 degree jackpot on the GFS for RDU .. TAKE THAT! View attachment 112269

Wow even for the GFS that looks weird. I can’t figure out any good explanation for why it’s doing that. I first thought snow island or something but no it has uniform “snow depth” haha.

 

[Hypsometric]

Wow even for the GFS that looks weird. I can’t figure out any good explanation for why it’s doing that. I first thought snow island or something but no it has uniform “snow depth” haha.

I guess it must be this hole in the clouds + the “snow cover”.

 

[BullCityWx]

What a beautiful run. Right on the cusp of staying all snow, lol. Would love for this to actually take place. Does the southern stream amp, or does it not? GFS camp or Euro camp? I've got serious doubts but weenie hope is alive!modernweenie

View attachment 112270

I mean, 20 years of doing this tells me to always doubt the GFS but frankly, that’s usually when the Euro is amped and the GFS is weak

 

[weather nerd]

LOL I'm not a weenie and have to look at things on both sides. I am a Meteorologist. I don't give my employers weenie forecasts, because that's unethical and unprofessional. Take a look at GSP's discussion please.

... "isohume" .. is that you? message me if so.

 

[BullCityWx]

... "isohume" .. is that you? message me if so.

Ain’t he in Greer?

 

[SNOWMANN]

View attachment 112240
Another Jimmy special

More like Snowmann special lol jk throw a dart at this point

 

[SNOWMANN]

Everyone bashes the GFS I even still call it ole goofy but I wouldn't discount it either. Especially if the trend continues in future runs. It tends to lock in in this timeframe. It was good with the big storm we got a few weeks back. It locked in and didn't back down.

 

[JHS]

Ain’t he in Greer?

Yep he is at the GSP office.

 

[NBAcentel]

Why did I look at this, now I can’t Unsee how bad this is, like the 12z CMC, this is a lesser possibility

 

[HurricaneSolomon]

weather apps use model runs, not the other way around.

Yes. That is correct. Hence the reason the weather apps are all over the place when we’re a few days out. I was just stating that most of them actually showed something wintry for this time frame which doesn’t always happen. When I get home from work I’ll come here to see what’s really going on out there.


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[SnowNiner]

Why did I look at this, now I can’t Unsee how bad this is, like the 12z CMC, this is a lesser possibility View attachment 112275

Yeah nam maybe a touch better but maybe not what we need.

 

[NBAcentel]

Yeah nam maybe a touch better but maybe not what we need.
View attachment 112288

Looks like a bowl of hot garbage, we’re not in meso range but that isn’t exactly encouraging lol

 

[SnowNiner]

Looks like a bowl of hot garbage, we’re not in meso range but that isn’t exactly encouraging lol

Probably cut and paste that h5 look the last 2 events. Its really been a problem for some reason in this pattern.

 

[smast16]

only if we could cash out on this now.. View attachment 112242View attachment 112244View attachment 112243

Aww man, I bullseyes 110 hrs out. One should nEver bullseye this far out...

 

[NBAcentel]

18z euro looking BETTER with the southern stream wave so far

 

[NBAcentel]

Aww man, I bullseyes 110 hrs out. One should nEver bullseye this far out...

when you need a NW trend, it doesn’t happen. To far NW, it stays NW. lol haha

 

[NBAcentel]

This is still so meh tho, tilt is better

 

[NBAcentel]

18z euro was definitely a bit better, at hour 90 the cutoff was slightly more amped then last run

 

[Hypsometric]

18z euro was definitely a bit better, at hour 90 the cutoff was slightly more amped then last run

Might be grasping at straws, but H7 moisture was a tad further north at the end of the run.

 

[Rain Cold]

Probably cut and paste that h5 look the last 2 events. Its really been a problem for some reason in this pattern.

Pretty flat flow out ahead of the system.

 

[BullCityWx]

FWIW, the bufkit numbers for GSO and CLT were NSFW.

 

[Hypsometric]

Pretty flat flow out ahead of the system.

What it's gonna take to keep it snow (especially RDU east). I think the ceiling for this setup is a dusting-2", maybe 1-3" type of event for most. Any more amped than that, we'll sleet and any less and it'll be cloudy lol. I'd give anything to be wrong though!

 

[NBAcentel]

Might be grasping at straws, but H7 moisture was a tad further north at the end of the run.

View attachment 112292

View attachment 112293

Yeah we tried getting better. Cutoff was deeper and quicker, the height feild on top was more favorable for amplification, and the SER itself was stronger which would have resulted in more warm air advection.
This is literally the difference between a mod-high impact winter storm on the GFS, and then not much on the euro. Talk about a sensitive setup

 

[Rain Cold]

What it's gonna take to keep it snow (especially RDU east). I think the ceiling for this setup is a dusting-2", maybe 1-3" type of event for most. Any more amped than that, we'll sleet and any less and it'll be cloudy lol. I'd give anything to be wrong though!

Yeah I think you're right. We don't have a big deep trough this time. We don't have a big arctic wave diving in to phase and crash the column. We have a decent cold shot with a high on the way out by the time a weak southern wave comes through. We should have enough cold for some snow/ice, depending, as you said, on the track and strength of the southern wave. If it amps too much, which I'm becoming doubtful about, it will overwhelm the column.

 

[Clem282340]

How the 18z eps look like

 

[Ollie Williams]

How the 18z eps look like

 

[SD]

Euro control is delicious

 

[CaryWx]

Euro control is delicious

[pic would be here]

 

[SD]

[pic would be here]

I wanted to build suspense

 

[NBAcentel]

Pretty massive N trend on the EPS

 

[Clem282340]

Pretty massive N trend on the EPS View attachment 112309

Looks like it is getting closer to the gfs baby steps

 

[CaryWx]

I wanted to build suspense

View attachment 112308
View attachment 112310

Thanks. Dare I say it?--Right where we...

 

[BirdManDoomW]

18z euro still not quiet there with my thinking I believe north eastern NC and south-eastern Virginia could see more brunt of the storm is this type of system with how the precip slides north-east in fashion

 

[SD]

Thanks. Dare I say it?--Right where we...

I'd take that 500mb track and bet on the models being too light and small with the precip shield