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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

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NickyBGuarantee said:
Sheesh tossing the 00z Canadian .. just cause.
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From RAH:
Saturday and Sunday: Forecast confidence for Saturday night and
Sunday is still on the low side, but gradually increasing. The
southern stream upper level shortwave low to the west will move
through the MS Valley and into TN on Saturday and continue moving
east through the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Sat night and
Sunday before exiting over the Atlantic Sun night. Meanwhile, the
surface high will move east through the Northeast, ridging southward
through the mid-Atlantic. A low will develop off the FL/GA coast
along the front Sat eve/night, lifting northward along the Carolina
coast Sat night/Sun and away from the area Sun night. There should
be enough cold air in place and sufficient moisture with the low.
The track is still uncertain and thus contributing to the overall
forecast uncertainty. At this time, there is still a chance for some
wintry precipitation Sat night/Sunday, but the duration, extent, p-
type and amounts are uncertain. Temperatures will be below normal
with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.
 
South Carolina has the best timing for wintery wx and the least favorable timing would be near Raleigh NC during the day Sunday. If it speeds up some it could help the NC areas into VA. 6z GFS is still a tick too far west imo maybe it will come east more and more. Bullseye ? areas have been laid tho down east from VA to SC.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Wow, I guess this is the year of the SE trends. Usually, you can always count on the NW trend. Not this winter.
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Let’s keep in mind… the NW trends have still been there, but they’ve been occurring in the last 48 hours and after several days of SE trends. Honestly though I’m not sure about this set up.. it just looks too marginal to me
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I would be getting at least a little excited if I was in the NWS Wilmington zones and NWS Columba SC area
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KILM AFD..

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weekend forecast continues to be problematic with respect to frozen
precip potential. Front will be offshore Sat morning with high
pressure wedging down the coast. This will set up the potential
frozen precipitation scenario for Sat night or Sun AM. A southern
stream cutoff moving into the Southeast at the same time helps
generate a surface low along the stalled front. The strength of the
cold air and the location of the surface low/front combo will
determine precip type. There has been a shift in the ensemble data
since last night. Many more members now showing some sort of frozen
precip. Latest thermal profiles seem more a little more supportive
of sleet than snow or freezing rain, although still a lot of details
that need to be hammered out. In summary, the potential for
mixed/frozen precipitation is increasing, but a lot of uncertainty
with respect to how the event will evolve.
 
Fwiw
Two Fridays ago I was supposed to get an inch of snow if lucky... I ended up with 3"
This past Friday I was forecast to get 2-3"... I ended up with barely a dusting...

Sooooo much will change with this potential storm all the way up to go time folks!! It's still 84hrs away after all.
 
metwannabe said:
06z GFS still flatter and further south, temps marginal too.... a minor event still possible of course but a whiff not out of question either.
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To reiterate what Fro was saying from get go. Its not temps but the SS Wave we need to be fearful of.
6z was the worst its looked at H5 on the GFS. Its riding solo and there's nothing to amp it up, got to do it independently. Whiff is legit.
Hopefully that want be the case and we can score again. Noticed I've got a few extra minutes of daylight in the afternoon and in about 4-5 weeks we start that least enticing 6 month stretch of wx.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Wow, I guess this is the year of the SE trends. Usually, you can always count on the NW trend. Not this winter.
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Well there's one old time trend that we always could count on and its showed glaringly this week. The euro has been rock steady with this weak sauce/ possible whiff off the NC/SC coast. GFS has been walking it back getting in line with the Euro all week.
 
NCSNOW said:
Well there's one old time trend that we always could count on and its showed glaringly this week. The euro has been rock steady with this weak sauce/ possible whiff off the NC/SC coast. GFS has been walking it back getting in line with the Euro all week.
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Not a whiff for everyone. My local NWS office bringing wintry mix into my forecast so I'm happy with everything right where it is.
 
Still some uncertainty I wouldn’t lose hope for down east and coastal areas just because your backyard doesn’t have snow doesn’t mean the non-climo areas are out too
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Still some uncertainty I wouldn’t lose hope for down east and coastal areas just because your backyard doesn’t have snow doesn’t mean the non-climo areas are out too
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When is your second guess map coming out? Or your first pre-call map?
 
Rain Cold said:
When is your second guess map coming out? Or your first pre-call map?
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Letting it ride for 2 days because models will likely edge n/w like they always do, for now it’s still limited to areas east of 77 with small chances and slightly greater chances eastern SC north into s/e Virginia.
 
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