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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Rain Cold said:
I miss the big ice by literally 2 miles on that map.

It's way overdone, regardless.

As far as the threat goes, all we can really say is that there's a threat for some wintry weather for portions of the SE. Right now, I'd favor the CAD areas and lend more weight to the GFS solution, but with it tamped down quite a bit.

None of the models have been particularly good at this range on a consistent basis this year. They mostly have agreement that some manner of frozen precipitation will be possible, but I don't believe any doomsday icing maps no more than the man in the moon. And I won't unless I see an evolution toward classic CAD throughout the event.
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Yes, the GFS is not showing a hybrid CAD, it is showing in-situ CAD with the high being offshore and winds over the northeast and mid-atlantic out of the southeast. Big difference being that there is no continued supply of cold air advection to offset the latent heat release of freezing processes, thus the shallower cold dome on the eastern flank will erode relatively quickly. With the high out of position, this effectively eliminates these dooms day scenario ice accretion totals that are being spit out - especially outside of the western Piedmont of NC.
 
rburrel2 said:
Crazy that literally 0 of 50 members on the Euro are amped/warm to level of the GFS/Ukmet.
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Yeah, that would lead me to believe that this will not favor the GFS solution. The Euro would have you to believe that the upper layers will be much colder due to a weaker storm and thus more of a snow threat.
 
Odds are the SW is way less amped making the GFS solution unlikely. That models progressive bias and really bad history with CAD setups make it honestly unreliable in this. Even with insitu CAD (which is less likely in my opinion, you're likely going to have a more entrenched HP) the cold surface layer would be underdone as the source region is fully snowpacked and extremely cold. I'm worried less about the surface temps and more worried about how much precip we honestly get. Now if you go with a combination of the models you still end up with a significant storm and if the upper levels still support ZR it probably makes for a more impactful system since moisture wouldn't be heavy.
 
Here she comes

500hv.conus.png
 
From an ice potential the GFS is probably a little concerning, coming in earlier with precip and colder. Once globals nail down an actual system (which seems more and more likely) as usual will be the short range models that will help nail down profiles.
 
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