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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Im not SD or Shawn but let’s calm the tension down, we all want something at the end of the day, a winter storm !! There’s fail factors and factors in our favor, Gotta look at it both ways, weather will do what it wants anyways at the end of the day
 
SnowNiner said:
What a beautiful run. Right on the cusp of staying all snow, lol. Would love for this to actually take place. Does the southern stream amp, or does it not? GFS camp or Euro camp? I've got serious doubts but weenie hope is alive!modernweenie

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I mean, 20 years of doing this tells me to always doubt the GFS but frankly, that’s usually when the Euro is amped and the GFS is weak
 
Everyone bashes the GFS I even still call it ole goofy but I wouldn't discount it either. Especially if the trend continues in future runs. It tends to lock in in this timeframe. It was good with the big storm we got a few weeks back. It locked in and didn't back down.
 
over9000 said:
weather apps use model runs, not the other way around.
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Yes. That is correct. Hence the reason the weather apps are all over the place when we’re a few days out. I was just stating that most of them actually showed something wintry for this time frame which doesn’t always happen. When I get home from work I’ll come here to see what’s really going on out there.


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Rain Cold said:
Pretty flat flow out ahead of the system.
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What it's gonna take to keep it snow (especially RDU east). I think the ceiling for this setup is a dusting-2", maybe 1-3" type of event for most. Any more amped than that, we'll sleet and any less and it'll be cloudy lol. I'd give anything to be wrong though!
 
Hypsometric said:
Might be grasping at straws, but H7 moisture was a tad further north at the end of the run.

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Yeah we tried getting better. Cutoff was deeper and quicker, the height feild on top was more favorable for amplification, and the SER itself was stronger which would have resulted in more warm air advection.46B3BF23-5D57-4950-8395-1A66D33A450D.gif
This is literally the difference between a mod-high impact winter storm on the GFS, and then not much on the euro. Talk about a sensitive setup 6BD3900D-6B53-4CAC-958B-20B37389AB9B.png4015FF61-2678-45EC-BEEB-1A9791176FF9.png
 
Hypsometric said:
What it's gonna take to keep it snow (especially RDU east). I think the ceiling for this setup is a dusting-2", maybe 1-3" type of event for most. Any more amped than that, we'll sleet and any less and it'll be cloudy lol. I'd give anything to be wrong though!
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Yeah I think you're right. We don't have a big deep trough this time. We don't have a big arctic wave diving in to phase and crash the column. We have a decent cold shot with a high on the way out by the time a weak southern wave comes through. We should have enough cold for some snow/ice, depending, as you said, on the track and strength of the southern wave. If it amps too much, which I'm becoming doubtful about, it will overwhelm the column.
 
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