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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Favorable timing run tho esp for your area it’s after dark into Monday morning. I would say that’s winter storm warning criteria too. That 32 will slowly change into 27 as we get closer…most likely.
And just like that, GFS now showing sig. event for the Troutman area with temps in the 20s and still trending colder. Early morning Sunday event.
 
From RAH:

Saturday through Monday: The upper trough to the north will progress
through the Northeast and on Saturday while the cutoff low over the
southern Plains begins to move eastward. Another northern stream
wave will move east along the Canadian border and into the Great
Lakes Sat night/Sun, amplifying the trough south into the Plains and
potentially picking up the southern stream wave over the TN Valley
on Sun as it does. The southern stream wave will likely pick up some
Gulf moisture as it moves through the Southeast and Carolinas
Sun/Sun night. At the surface, high pressure will ridge southward
into the area from a strong high moving through the Northeast Sat
and Sun. A coastal low will develop along/off the FL/GA coast Sun
and lift northeast along the East Coast Sun night and Mon. The
southern stream wave and coastal low could be the focus for some
additional precipitation over the Carolinas Sun/Mon. While it is
still a bit early to be specific about where, when and what type of
precip will occur, non-liquid precipitation is possible.
 
One thing is for sure at least for now... most of my weather apps actually show the potential for something frozen. WRAL has also made at least a mention of it.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
6z GFS continues the Doomsday scenerio: Think ole RC jackpots on this one. Congrats

zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Freezing is a exothermic process meaning heat is released in the process. This is not the DP's you want to see to if you want winter weather
gfs_Td2m_seus_23.png
You realize that after 6+ hours of ice right? Lol. It’s going to switch to rain dude.
 
Freezing is a exothermic process meaning heat is released in the process. This is not the DP's you want to see to if you want winter weather
gfs_Td2m_seus_23.png
GFS is probably the worst global known to man when dealing with CAD. Erodes it too fast, forces LP into it instead of pivoting around the CAD dome, and it’s progressive bias moves HP out too fast.
 
GFS is probably the worst global known to man when dealing with CAD. Erodes it too fast, forces LP into it instead of pivoting around the CAD dome, and it’s progressive bias moves HP out too fast.
UKMET shows the same solution.
 
Almost everyone on here understands the pros and cons of Cad, latent heat release, dew points ,wetbulbing, fill in the blank etc.
No one takes a 120 hour model run, espeacilly GFS as gospel. All we do is watch the runs,discuss and move on to the next cycle. All part of the tracking hobby. Just because a clown map gets posted or discussed half hazzardly most of the time, doesnt mean folks are saying thats exactly whats going to happen or not happen.
 
The 06z euro looked better with the trough and high following that would have resulted in damming, but the southern stream wave had more interaction with the Baja ULL, resulting in a weak and Garbo southern stream wave
Good, as long as it trends away from the crazy GFS solution
 
We’re having the same battle as the first winter storm, with the Baja ULL trying to shear our southern stream wave, this time the flow in the SW is slowed even more, so there’s a better chance of interference
 
We’re having the same battle as the first winter storm, with the Baja ULL trying to shear our southern stream wave, this time the flow in the SW is slowed even more, so there’s a better chance of interference
Im honestly way more concerned about this then a faster SE can vortex and high moving out quick
 
6z GFS continues the Doomsday scenerio: Think ole RC jackpots on this one. Congrats

zr_acc.us_ma.png
I miss the big ice by literally 2 miles on that map.

It's way overdone, regardless.

As far as the threat goes, all we can really say is that there's a threat for some wintry weather for portions of the SE. Right now, I'd favor the CAD areas and lend more weight to the GFS solution, but with it tamped down quite a bit.

None of the models have been particularly good at this range on a consistent basis this year. They mostly have agreement that some manner of frozen precipitation will be possible, but I don't believe any doomsday icing maps no more than the man in the moon. And I won't unless I see an evolution toward classic CAD throughout the event.
 
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