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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Like to see that ridge behind the trough get stronger, this results in more descent behind the trough and likely a better Sfc high pressure View attachment 111760
Yep. Result is a stronger sfc high this GEFS run in the NE, very impressive for a smoothed ensemble mean, it just looks like the gefs shears the wave and lacks qpf1FD4275D-C98E-40EE-8C42-FF4EED2EEE8E.png42971097-9F2B-44C7-ABD5-DE4F535BAB02.png3F7100E2-5B79-43FB-9B8C-F22E1D05119F.png
 
That's trending the wrong way for a good storm. Need that trough to be getting sharper and further south and west.
Actually, while that wouldn’t hurt, it’s not really going the wrong way and the trough overall has been bouncing around in strength/sharpness. the ridging behind and negative vorticity advection behind the cold but progressive trough is trending stronger, which results in more descent, and has trending the sfc high to be much stronger in the last couple of gefs runs. Great if your in the Carolinas. You can see on the 48 hour trend that we’re raising heights around/east of GLs and associated sfc high pressure. No bad trends here 48060429-180A-41AE-BDC5-B5B27F2BACE8.pngC0E807F4-5AE0-476A-98A9-7BE800858036.png
 
CMC has a N/S trough in Canada that causes LP around the GLs, that’s a issue when N/S is progressive as well
 
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